NOTES FROM THE NASCAR NATION: Major changes to the Chase could be coming soon
There has been a lot of speculation recently that indicates some highly significant and sweeping changes could be coming regarding the points format used for NASCAR’s Chase for the Sprint Cup championship.
The first indication of these changes came right after the arrival of the new year and stemmed from comments made by NASCAR Chairman Brian France during an interview with the “Motor Racing Network.”
At that time France indicated a general feeling of dissatisfaction with the current Sprint Cup championship’s point structure and said he felt there was a way to modify the system that would place greater importance on winning races to determine the champion.
Needless to say, those comments set off a firestorm of speculation that said changes to the Chase format were forthcoming. That firestorm was greatly enhanced by a January 17th article in the “Charlotte Observer” that indicated the proposed changes could be even more sweeping than originally projected.
The major bullet points for the rumored change are as follows:
- The new format will expand from the current 12 teams to 16.
- Winning races during the regular points season, races one through 26, will become a high priority regarding which drivers makes the Chase lineup.
- Full time series drivers who win at least one race during the regular season schedule will be seeded first in the championship lineup.
- In the event that the first 26 races does not produce 16 winners, then the remainder of the Chase lineup will be seeded based on driver’s points. It should be noted that this particular scenario is very possible. There were only 13 different winners during the first 26 races of the 2013 season.
- Once the official Chase lineup is set, NASCAR will employ the use of a series of elimination rounds somewhat similar to the process used by college sports. At the conclusion of Chase races number three, six and nine, four drivers from each of those races will be officially eliminated from the post season championship run.
- The points will be reset to an even amount for the remaining four drivers, prior to the tenth and final Chase event, which will be held at the Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 16th.
- This final four man runoff will employ a winner take all format. The driver who accumulates the most points in the season finale will become the 2014 Sprint Cup champion.
Regarding the status of these rumored changes, a January 17th press release, from NASCAR Vice President and Chief Communications Officer Brett Jewkes, read as follows:
“NASCAR has begun the process of briefing key industry stakeholders on potential concepts to evolve its NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship format. This dialogue is the final phase of a multi-year process that has included the review of extensive fan research, partner and industry feedback and other data-driven insights. NASCAR has no plans to comment further until the stakeholder discussions are complete. We hope to announce any potential changes for the 2014 season to our media and fans very soon.”
There has been further speculation that says this announcement could comes as early as January 30th.
NASCAR Good Guys: Laps for charity in Las Vegas
Have you ever found yourself sitting in the grandstand, at a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race, wondering what it would be like to drive around one of those massive speedways? Even just the opportunity to drive your personal street car around one of these tracks would be a genuine thrill and a great story for the Monday morning water cooler when you returned to work.
The opportunity to drive your personal vehicle on a 1.5 mile paved oval will be available at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway and at the same time, will allow you the opportunity to support a very worthy charity.
Speedway Children’s Charities (SCC) will present its annual Laps for Charity event at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, January 26 from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m.
NASCAR fans and auto enthusiasts will have the unique opportunity to drive their personal vehicle around the 1.5-mile super speedway at speeds up to 75 miles per hour (behind a pace car).
“Drivers will feel the rush as they drive their vehicle three times around our track for a $30 donation to SCC.” The $30 entry fee is per vehicle; not per person.
You can register for Laps for Charity online or by calling 702-632-8242.
Speedway Children’s Charities mission “remains true to the ideals it was founded upon in 1982: To care for children in educational, financial, social and medical need in order to help them lead productive lives.”
“SCC is a non-profit 501(c)(3) organization and provides funding for hundreds of non-profit organizations throughout the nation that meet the direct needs of children. Their vision is that every child has the same opportunities no matter what obstacle they are facing.”
The charity was founded by “Bruton Smith, Chairman of Speedway Motorsports and Sonic Automotive, as a memoriam and legacy to his son, Bruton Cameron Smith, who passed away at a very young age. Given his experience, Smith became passionate about wanting to help children in need and Speedway Children’s Charities was created focusing on communities surrounding SMI speedways.”
“Our sole concern at SCC is to help a child in need,” says Smith.
In 1982, SCC went national and now funds thousands of organizations throughout the country “that help children directly with everything from educational support to the basic need of a coat or a simple meal.”
They describe themselves as “more than just a fundraiser.”
“Our local chapters are partners in change, working with a broad range of people and organizations to identify and resolve pressing issues dealing with children in their communities.”
Each community’s needs are assessed locally. “Challenges ranging from learning disabilities, broken homes, and childhood cancer are on the agenda for the local chapters of SCC and the numerous non-profit organizations they support. Although priorities for Speedway Children’s Charities are set locally, we have one common goal – to ensure every child in need be given the tools to build a better, brighter and healthy future.”
The reference to the SCC’s priorities being set locally was generated by a brilliant idea from Speedway Motorsport’s founder and Chairman Bruton Smith who set up local chapters at each of the speedways owned by SMI.
Those local chapters are located at the Atlanta Motor Speedway, the Bristol Motor Speedway, Charlotte Motor Speedway, Kentucky Motor Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Sonoma Raceway, the Texas Motor Speedway and the aforementioned Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Over the years, each SCC location has been extremely successful in presenting very creative fundraisers while interacting with charitable organizations, in the communities where the speedway’s are located, to address the needs of children.
In its three decades plus years in existence, Speedway Children’s Charities has more than earned the title “NASCAR Good Guys.”
Regan Smith taking lessons from last year into championship chase
Last year, Regan Smith started the year off strong, including a 58 point lead midway through the year. However, as races added up, the points gap faded and Smith ended the year third in points behind Austin Dillon and Sam Hornish Jr.
Looking back on the year, Smith recognizes there were many things that he could’ve done better throughout the year.
“You hear everybody talk about you can’t‑‑ you can talk about it and say this is how it’s going to be, this is going to be how it’s going to happen,” Smith explained. “You hear people say that and you always think that’s not going to be the case, but it really is. You have to experience this stuff before you can have a full understanding as to how it’s going to play out.”
Smith said he thought they were doing good last year, until they got caught in a late race incident at Mid-Ohio. Then they followed that up with a parts failure, which resulted in another bad finish. Rather than rebounding from it, it changed Smith’s view on the year.
He began thinking that he should start winning races to get back in front – when in reality, he wasn’t in that desperate of a situation.
“We had the spiral in the middle of the season that was tough to get over and tough to understand what was taking place,” Smith said. “We still had the same race cars, the same speed, but we started doing things a little more desperately than early in the year and probably didn’t need to, myself as a driver and other things along the way. And then we had a couple other hiccups here and there, which are going to happen throughout the course of a season, and just I think we got too desperate too early to be blunt about it.”
Smith said the process taught him many lessons – including the need to play it smart and stick to what they know, rather than grasp for straws. Take that set-up that works well and use it, rather than trying something else and finishing 15th.
“I think the experience from that last year is going to play a big part this year in understanding that until we really get down to a certain part of the season, you don’t have to panic,” he said. “You don’t have to get desperate. You have to be smart and do the things that you know how to do. As I said, I had probably 90 people tell me that, and until you sit back at the end of the year and you look at it, you don’t realize it.”
Smith will start his championship chase with the season opener at Daytona International Speedway. Last year, Smith was in the thick for the win until he got taken out in the last lap wreck. With tandems being banned for this year, Smith is excited to see the style of racing that happens on track.
Will The Chase Be Expanded to 16 Teams?
According to various sources, including the Charlotte Observer’s Jim Utter, NASCAR’s plan for the 2014 Chase is taking shape and it will have a new format. According to these sources, 16 teams would make the Chase with positions going to full-time participants who won a race during the season of 25 races. If there were not 16 teams with wins, the remaining positions would be based on the point finishers according to the standings at the end of the “regular season.”
There has to be a catch, right? Well there is one. The lowest four teams in the standings after the points are reset, which has always been the case since the beginning of the Chase, will be eliminated after the third, sixth, and ninth races in the final 10 Chase races. This would leave four teams and drivers to fight it out in the final race at Homestead next November. The “Final Four” would have their points reset to make them all equal in the final race. Whoever scored the most points in the final race would be the champion.
According to some sources, this might not be the final plan. Changes could still occur in the format, but it seems this is the direction NASCAR is headed. Details are expected to be announced at the annual Media Tour in Charlotte in about a week.
This is a radical change in the consistency based points structure created by the late Bob Latford, 39 years ago. It would virtually assure that the champion would be a winner and not sneak into a championship through consistency. Details will soon be known.
What’s In a Number?
As this is being written, we are only 38 days away from the Daytona 500, and the news has come fast and furious leading up to the beginning of the season. It doesn’t surprise me somehow that it began with the number three.
Many great drivers have piloted a car adorned with the number three over the years. Notables include Al Unser (in 1968), Bobby Isaac (75), Hall of Famer Buck Baker (64), Buddy Baker (68), Hall of Famer Cale Yarborough (71 & 72), Hall of Famer David Pearson (62), Fred Lorenzen (70), Hall of Famer Junior Johnson, Richard Childress (81), and Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt. That’s the rub. Dale Earnhardt was such a huge figure, especially in the 1980’s and 1990’s; many fans refuse to accept anyone other than The Intimidator in a car with the stylized numeral. The fact that the number is owned, or at least leased to car owner Childress doesn’t matter. The debate rages on and probably will for some time to come.
Among some fans, however, hope rises. Unfortunately, many think that young Austin Dillon, the driver of the No. 3 for 2014 will resurrect that car to the lofty heights that they watched years ago. The theory is that, just like Matt Kenseth, who left Roush-Fenway Racing in 2012 to almost dominate the season (almost is a big word), the chemistry and the good karma that surrounded Earnhardt while in that car will happen for Dillon. Don’t count on it. Remember Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. in 2013?
Stenhouse was fresh off two consecutive NASCAR Nationwide championships, was in a car with a history of winning, and it just didn’t work out. The future is bright for Mr. Stenhouse, and will be for Dillon, but I don’t think it will be in 2014 for Austin. Despite his fast laps at Daytona earlier this month, it’s going to take time, just like Stenhouse, for his talent to become what No. 3 fans want the performance to be. The Sprint Cup Series is ten times tougher than the Nationwide or Camping World Truck Series. My only hope is fans will give the young man a chance to mature in that famous car. Of course I could be totally wrong, but history tells me that’s not going to be the case. Seeing Jeff Burton, Paul Menard, and at times Kevin Harvick struggle in RCR cars over that last few seasons, and considering the domination of the series by Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports, it’s not going to be as easy as many think.
Now that we have that numerology out of the way, think about this for a moment. Last season, we had 36 races and two teams won 58 percent of the races. Chevrolet drivers won 16 times, Toyota won 14 times, and Ford Drivers won six. Hendrick Motorsports drivers won nine races and Joe Gibbs Racing drivers won 12 times. Maybe that’s the competition problem in NASCAR, and not any number of changes the sanctioning body is considering. We will tackle that and other issues next.
The Top 20 Sprint Cup Drivers entering 2014
This was pretty tough to put together. Honestly, anybody in the top 10 outside of first could be ranked in any order, and so many teams are so good it’s tough to put them in order.
One thing I’ve noticed is that the good drivers keep getting better. In 2005, Tony Stewart won the championship with five top-fives and seven top-10s, with no wins during the Chase. Eight years later, Jimmie Johnson wins the championship with two wins, seven top-fives, and nine top-10s, with all 10 races in the Chase being top-15 finishes. While the quality of racing may not be as good as it was in 2005, nobody can argue the competition has become more fierce.
Remember though, that this list is my opinion. You are allowed to disagree and give me yours in the comment section below.
I ranked this using Chase Results, overall season stats, off-season changes and my opinion on the driver. This is not my predictions for final 2014 points, only who is the best going into the season. I do not count Nationwide Series results unless the driver raced for points in that series last season; this is why Kyle Busch isn’t first and Larson and Dillon are where they are.
Honorable Mention: AJ Allmendinger
What a comeback year for the 32 year old driver from California. After losing the ride of a lifetime in 2012 after failing a drug test, he gets rehired by Penske Racing to run a few IndyCar and Nationwide Series races and over performs. He won both of his Nationwide races last season and might have won the Indy 500 if it were not for a broken seat belt. Then he gets hired by JTG-Daugherty and gives them the best runs in that car since Marcos Ambrose ran it, with a shot to win Watkins Glen in particular. All of this without mentioning his top-15 runs helping to put the tiny James Finch team in the top-10 in Sprint Cup owner points in the early portion of the 2013 season.
20: Jamie McMurray
The 2010 Daytona 500 champion enters 2014 as the veteran driver of Chip Ganassi Racing (CGR). Outside of Loudon and his Talladega win, he really didn’t do much in the Chase. He can make the 2014 Chase, but his two main problems are constituency and he needs to turn top-20s into top-10s, and top-10s into top-fives.
19. Carl Edwards
My, how the mighty have fallen. After tying with Tony Stewart for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship in points in 2011 (losing on tiebreaker), he missed the Chase in 2012 and had the single worst point finish of any Chaser in history. (Nobody has finished worse than 12th before, Edwards finished 13th).
18. Greg Biffle
Biffle is the quietest guy in the Cup Series. I almost completely forgot about him when making this ranking. If he wants to move from 10th in points to top five, he needs to do better than 16th or worse in three Chase races.
17. Kyle Larson
This guy has a lot of talent, as has been said before. He’s a huge question mark this season. Is it too early? Can CGR compete with other teams? “The Knife” could have a typical rookie season, be incredibly successful or be like Danica Patrick and finish 27th in points.
16. Kasey Kahne
Next year’s champion? Every single year I see people say this will be Kahne’s season, almost more so than a certain driver in a bright yellow Toyota. In reality, almost every season he struggles to make the Chase. Then if he does make the Chase, he usually doesn’t do much or is too inconsistent to do much. Last season in particular, I think his big hurdle is that when it gets down to it, he can’t close and get the win. Just look at his awesome duels with Kenseth all throughout 2013 and who ended up going to Victory Lane in every one of them.
15. Ryan Newman
It was a roller coaster season for the “Ogre from South Bend.” First he loses his ride, then that very week he wins at his home track in Indianapolis. Then he gets screwed out of the Chase due to Michael Waltrip Racing (MWR) shenanigans, but was put in it anyway. Now he’s with a new Richard Childress Racing (RCR) where the only returning driver is Paul Menard. It’s going to be interesting to see what Newman will do in the No. 31 compared to Jeff Burton, who did a lot of nothing over the past two years.
14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Here’s my crazy prediction for this season – Stenhouse will contend for the Chase and win a couple of races. He’s got a year under his belt now and he has his old Nationwide championship winning crew chief now. He scored all three of his top-10s in the last 11 races of the season. I think he’s also going to continue being way ahead of Danica Patrick. When she said that she wanted to be the one among the two who got the first victory, I really doubt I was the only one who out and out belly laughed.
13. Denny Hamlin
Everything since 2010 Homestead has been downhill for Hamlin. Yes he won five races in 2012, but only one of those was in the Chase. Winning races is good and all, but at this point in Hamlin’s career, you need to be competing for championships year in and year out. Even if he wasn’t knocked out of action at Auto Club Speedway, I really doubt he would have competed for one in 2013. The only reason he’s this high on the list is because of four top-10s in the final six races along with a win at Homestead.
12. Joey Logano
Logano finally buckled down and made the Chase last season, even though he was too inconsistent to do much. He didn’t make many friends last season at all, but he finally grew as a driver and is starting to live up to his potential while breaking the 22 car curse. A great thing going for him is his teammate. Say what you will about Brad Keselowski, but it isn’t like Logano had a former champion to help him out back with Gibbs.
11. Clint Bowyer
This team might have very well won the championship or at least could have been a contender before Richmond. It took a lot of momentum from MWR as a whole and Bowyer’s team might have suffered the most with them being in the center of the controversy. He may change things in 2014 but he enters it at an all time low.
10. Austin Dillon
Dillon is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year (ROTY) and the Nationwide Series championship. Yes, he didn’t win a race last season in Nationwide, but that’s primarily because of Sprint Cup drivers winning 26 races last year (28 if you count AJ Allmendinger, which I don’t.) He’s going to have enormous pressure coming into this season, as would any driver stepping into that No. 3 Chevy.
9. Kurt Busch
He took a tiny team into the Chase and gave all of the bigger teams a run for their money. Now he’s finally back in a car with the best equipment in the business and with a championship winning team in Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR). Don’t call it a comeback, because he never really left.
8. Brad Keselowski
The 2012 Champ started off 2013 wrong and it just kept getting worse and worse. Part of the problem has to have been Roush-Yates engines not being ready to support two more full time teams, as the Fords in general struggled this year.
7. Tony Stewart
Okay, he might be a strange choice to be in the top 10, but let me explain. I think he’s one of the best pure drivers in NASCAR, and I think he’s going to enter this season ready to make up for lost time.
6. Jeff Gordon
Just missing out on a top five spot in 2013, Gordon’s Chase personified his career the past few years. He’ll do consistently well, even winning a race, before something happens, in this case, a wreck at Texas on lap 75. If you don’t count that, he’s in the top 15 in every single race from Bristol onward.
5. Matt Kenseth
Yes, I know I’m going to get a lot of hate mail for this. It seems really strange having the runner-up in points who won seven races last year, only fifth, but I think the runner-up hangover is just too strong to get over. Bowyer couldn’t, Edwards couldn’t, and it’s still affecting Hamlin four years later. I don’t see how he’s going to be that different.
4. Kyle Busch
The 18 team are the Dallas Cowboys of NASCAR. They either fail to make the playoffs against all odds, or they do and choke away the championship either way. And like Dallas, it’s really sad to see it happen, because outside of the play-offs they are supremely talented and always a threat every week. You also either love them or hate them. There is very little middle ground.
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
I think Earnhardt’s big problem this year is the new crew chief search. That will always distract a driver when it happens to them, in some way. It’s a shame too, because he and Letarte finally started clicking together this season, the final eight races in particular.
2. Kevin Harvick
The only problem Harvick might have next season is that SHR is spreading itself a bit thin. Otherwise, he has all the momentum and now he’s in absolute top of the line equipment, not the RCR stuff that only he can win with.
1. Jimmie Johnson
Who were you expecting to be up here? If Jimmie wins nine races and the championship this season, he’ll match Earnhardt Sr. in wins and championships in roughly five less full-time seasons. And the scary thing is that I think nobody in the entire sport would be shocked if he has that kind of season. Case in point: his worst finish in the Chase was a 13th at Talladega, the place where luck takes priority over talent or equipment. Other than that, he had seven top-fives, a sixth at Kansas and a ninth at Homestead, where he was more concerned with finishing the race rather than getting the best result possible. Can anybody stop Johnson? Possibly but I wouldn’t bet on it.
