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Pondering Bristol – What Was the Problem?

Photo Credit: David Scearce

Thunder Valley. Once the Mecca of stock car racing is looking a little like the 1962 New York Mets.  Bruton Smith gave away ten Mustangs and still the greatest venue in NASCAR racing was generously only half full.  The Nationwide Series race was maybe a fourth full. A lot of factors played into this, but it wasn’t the racing. Earlier this winter, a friend came to me who wasn’t so good at computers asking me if I could list his tickets on Stub Hub. He had four, but only needed two. The cold, hard truth is that two people in his party had opted out because of the cost of attending a race. Couple that with the last few races that were less than exciting, and the tickets, more valuable than gold a few years ago, were easily found on race day at a discount.

Many might cite the weather. The weather guessers had predicted that it would rain. Some forecasts said there was a 60% chance of rain both days, but both Saturday and Sunday, the weather was in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s and the only rain came at night, but that wasn’t the crux of the problem. As we sat in the middle of the fans on Saturday, the most prevalent theme was competition. Listen to those I talked to.

One fan I’ll call John (not his real name) had been given tickets to the race by his Nationwide Insurance agent, and made the trip from West Virginia for the day. His words rang true. “I love NASCAR, but it makes no difference where your loyalties lie, this race will come down to Joe Gibbs Racing, Penske Racing, and Roush Racing,” he said. “Tomorrow it will be Hendrick or Gibbs. It’s just not going to be a surprise.”

Another factor is the cost of a trip to any venue these days. John said it best. “I spent $100 on fuel just to spend the day. Add to that the $100 for food and I spent more than a day’s work to come here speaks of my love for racing. Wish I could afford it like I did in year’s past.”

Regardless of the economic considerations, both races were the best we’ve seen in years. It was sit on the edge of your seat, never look away racing. Kyle Larson, the author of the big one at Daytona is showing he is the real deal in dueling with superstar Kyle Busch and coming so close in the Nationwide race. The battles between champ Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, and others were the best we’ve seen in years. It almost makes the fans wonder why we don’t have more short track racing. It’s something we won’t see again until Martinsville in a few weeks. This kind of racing allows us to see the raw emotions of drivers like Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin. Only six times a year do we see this and that is the problem. Most weeks we see “follow the leader” racing where one driver or team dominates. This was not the case at Bristol. It never is.

So, as we close the chapter on Bristol 1, just ponder this a moment. Joe Gibbs Racing won the Nationwide race and Hendrick Motorsports won the Sprint Cup race. A dark horse nearly won on Saturday, but no one other than the usual suspects were in contention on Sunday. Am I missing something here? Yes, the economy is a factor, but the sport has become predictable. That’s not any different than in recent history, but maybe that’s a factor in why Bristol has fallen so far. Maybe they built too many seats, but there a lot of factors in why this great speedway looked nearly empty this weekend. Maybe it’s time to look deeper. It wasn’t the racing, which was good, and it wasn’t the track, which had one groove (up top, kind of a reversal from the old Bristol where everything was down low). It was a number of things and the answers won’t be easy.

Crunching The Numbers: Auto Club Speedway

Photo Credit: Simon Scoggins

After a wild weekend at Bristol full of beating, banging, and tempers flaring, the Sprint Cup Series and Nationwide Series heads back out west to take on the fifth race of the season at the two mile Auto Club Speedway of Southern California. As the second race at a downforce track 1.5 miles or larger, this race will be another key race in an early season for teams to hone their speedway programs.

Nationwide Series

The Nationwide Series takes to the track in the Royal Purple 300 on Saturday and is scheduled to go green at 2:00 PM local time (5:00 PM Eastern). The field will consist of only a few Cup regulars, so the Nationwide regulars should have their time to shine in the California sun.

Driver Races Win Top 5 Top 10 Pole Laps Led Avg. Start Avg. Finish
Austin Dillon 1 0 1 1 0 0 4.0 5.0
Brad Sweet 1 0 0 1 0 0 14.0 6.0
Kyle Busch 14 5 8 11 2 495 7.1 7.2
Brian Vickers 7 0 2 5 0 48 10.0 10.9
Trevor Bayne 5 0 0 1 0 3 11.8 12.2
Brian Scott 5 0 1 2 0 0 11.2 13.0
Reed Sorenson 8 0 1 2 0 8 14.5 14.8
Justin Allgaier 6 0 0 2 0 3 9.7 15.2
Elliott Sadler 8 0 2 4 0 42 16.8 15.5
Mike Bliss 13 0 0 1 0 3 16.5 17.6

Who To Watch: Two of the top drivers statistically at Auto Club Speedway, Austin Dillon and Brad Sweet, only have one start each at the track and both will be making their second starts this weekend. Look for both to try to back up their finishes of fifth and sixth, respectively. Two time winner in 2013, Kyle Busch, will look to add another win to his resume of five wins and an average finish of 7.2. As the lone Cup regular in the top 10 statistically, Busch will be a strong threat for the win once again. Others to keep an eye on include Brian Vickers, Trevor Bayne, Brian Scott, and the rest of the top 10.

Sprint Cup Series

The Sprint Cup Series drivers get their chance on track in the 200 lap Auto Club 400 on Sunday, scheduled to get underway at 12:00 PM local time (3:00 PM Eastern). The Gen6 car gets its second test at a track 1.5 miles or larger and good runs here should give teams some ideas for other large tracks through the remainder of the season.

Driver Races Win Top 5 Top 10 Pole Laps Led Avg. Start Avg. Finish
Jimmie Johnson 18 5 12 14 1 851 9.1 5.4
Carl Edwards 15 1 7 12 1 121 18.5 8.7
Matt Kenseth 20 3 8 13 0 497 20.4 10.2
Clint Bowyer 12 0 2 7 0 45 14.3 10.8
Kyle Busch 15 1 6 10 1 474 11.7 11.3
Jeff Gordon 23 3 10 11 2 622 12.9 11.8
Kurt Busch 19 1 4 9 3 231 15.2 12.7
Tony Stewart 21 2 6 12 0 314 14.8 13.5
Mark Martin 21 1 6 10 0 324 12.7 13.6
Kasey Kahne 16 1 4 9 1 268 10.2 14.9

Who To Watch: California native Jimmie Johnson practically owns Auto Club Speedway with five wins, 12 top fives, 14 top tens, and an average finish of 5.4 in 18 races. Those stats put Johnson squarely at the top of the heap at this track and this Sunday should be no different. However, there are others who could give Johnson a run for his money, including Phoenix winner Carl Edwards with one win and an average finish of 8.7 in 14 races; Las Vegas winner Matt Kenseth with three wins and an average finish of 10.2 in 20 races; Clint Bowyer with an average finish of 10.8 in 12 races, and Kyle Busch with one win and an average finish of 11.3 in 15 races.