Matty’s Picks Vol. 20 – Dover – AAA 400 – October 2, 2011
The Monster-Mile! Dover International Speedway is one of my favorite tracks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule, so yes I will watch the race this Sunday for the first time in three weeks.
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[/media-credit]A short 6-hour trek from where I grew up, Dover has been a popular destination for vacations of my family and friends. Dover’s high concrete banking offers endless passing potential, high speeds, and even a spot to pay for your trip in the casino located along the backstretch of the 1-mile concrete oval.
I was lucky enough, two years ago, to have the opportunity to ride shotgun in a two-seater, NASCAR Stock Car around the high-banks of Dover International Speedway. Monster Driving School offered members of the media complementary rides in the two-seater stock cars at the Monster Mile, and in turn gave me the utmost respect for stock car drivers. The experience is one that I will never forget and made my interest level in NASCAR go from insane to outright ridiculous.
Now for anyone out there that thinks the 43 guys that strap into the 750-horsepower stock cars each week are not actual athletes, THINK AGAIN. I had the opportunity to take 8-laps around the Monster Mile, and I will tell you I had all I could do to walk straight when I climbed out of the car. The exuberant amount of adrenaline I had flowing through my veins that day was the only thing aiding my head to stay straight and remotely close to my body. I have the utmost respect for those guys now after just 8-laps, I can’t fathom the physical strain 3.5 hours of petal to the metal action puts on a driver’s body.
So if you’re one of those people who think NASCAR isn’t a sport, I challenge you to climb into one of those 750-horsepower stock cars and THEN see what you think.
Loudon Recap
If I had fifty-cents for every time one of my picks ran out of gas in the past two weeks, I would have enough for one double cheeseburger at McDonalds. (My roommates’ favorite snack in college)
It was another terrible week for me in New England last week (even though I got my revenge by my Bills taking it to Tom Brady and the Patriots last week), marking my worst combined total finish in the 19 editions of Matty’s Picks.
Ryan Newman was my winner pick last week, and yes I did make the pick before the dramatic qualifying session that ensued last week, resulting with Newman starting on the pole for last Sunday’s Sylvania 300.
Newman led the following 62 laps, when a miscue on pit-road sent him back in the field, never to reach the lead again. The bad news continued to roll in for Newman when he cut a tire down late in the race while running in the top-10 with just five laps remaining. The catastrophe cost Newman an imminent top-10 finish, and a boost in the points standings as well. Instead, the misfortune caused Newman to drop from 8th to 12th in points.
Newman spoke earlier this week about his misfortune in the first two races of The Chase “The results have not equaled the performances for our team at the past two races,” said Newman. “We’ve put ourselves in a hole, but the good news is that we still have eight races to go to make up the difference. We’ve been known for our comebacks and the way we fight through adversity. One thing you always hear from our Soldiers is that you never quit and you complete the mission. That’s what this Army race team has done and will always continue to do.”
As for my Dark Horse pick, Clint Bowyer was poised to win the race Sunday but his gas tank did not agree with him winning the race.
After starting 11th, Bowyer wasted no time in breaking into the top 10 and was shown in 8th-place around the midway point in the race. It was at that time when crew chief Shane Wilson came over the radio and told Bowyer to save as much fuel as he could for the end of the race.
Bowyer flexed his muscles after a round of pit-stops near lap 250 when he took the lead, conserving fuel all the way. He was ahead of race-winner Tony Stewart by half a second when his engine was finally starved of fuel with just three laps remaining. Bowyer’s day ended on pit-road with a 26th-place result and he was short when speaking with the media following the race “It’s just not our year. I’m proud of this team. What a great car. It just didn’t turn out the way we wanted it to.”
Even Stewart had sympathy for fellow Chevy driver Clint Bowyer following his win last Sunday “I know exactly what that feels like. I know exactly how he feels (Clint Bowyer) right now. I saw him slow down the back and I thought ‘Oh, no, you’re kiddin’ me’. That is not the way you want to win it for sure.”
Dover Picks
The spring race at Dover back in May marked the debut of Matty’s Picks, and laid the groundwork for a successful regular season of picks this year. I am looking to rebound off the past two weeks of miserable picks and get back into championship contention down the stretch here in the final 8 editions of Matty’s Picks.
Considering five drivers (Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth) have combined to win 15 of the last 19 races at the Monster Mile, it leaves little for question this week.
Winner Pick
Jimmie Johnson sits 10th in points going into Sunday’s race, a position he is fairly unfamiliar with this far into the Sprint Cup Schedule.
He leads all active drivers with 6 wins at the Monster Mile, including three of the last five after sweeping both races in 2009 and taking the fall race last year in Dover. The concrete mile has been kind to Johnson throughout the years (something that doesn’t always happen when your tires break loose due to the severe banking all around the track), making one of the most incredible saves in NASCAR history back in his 2006 qualifying efforts.
Johnson has an average finish of 9.6 at Dover, and sitting 10th in points is nowhere he wants to be for any period of time. “New Hampshire obviously wasn’t the finish we were looking for especially with how good we were throughout the weekend. I’m really looking forward to this weekend though. Dover has always been a good place for the 48 team and I really enjoy racing there. I’m not really sure why, but it has always just kind of suited my driving style” said the five-time champ earlier this week about his chances this weekend.
Jimmie Johnson’s quest for 6 in a row is underway, and now the time to make his statement, a win will do it.
Dark Horse Pick
Since the other four drivers are in The Chase that are a part of the statistic above pertaining to the past 19-races at Dover, I have to go with the only driver without a shot at claiming the Sprint Cup this year.
Greg Biffle’s trends at Dover have been rather interesting to look at this afternoon. It seems like he is more back and forth than a ping-pong match. In the past 5 races at the Monster Mile, Biffle’s finishes have been: 19th, 6th, 19th, 3rd, and 16th. In the 5 races prior to the start of the 2009 season, Biffle’s finishes were: 1st, 3rd, 6th, 2nd, and 8th.
Now, Biffle is not in the Chase, but is a serious contender to take the checkered this Sunday. His average career finish across 18 races is 11.4 and he currently sits 13th on the speed charts in Sprint Cup Final practice.
The Biff is also coming of an impressive third-place finish last week at Loudon, and sits just three points out of the top Non-Chaser points in 14th. Biff spoke about his success at Dover this week “I’ve had some success at Dover and it would be great to get the 3M Ford Fusion in victory lane there this weekend. It’s been a pretty up and down season for us so far but I feel like we’re moving in the right direction. A win would definitely keep the momentum going though. As a driver, you have to be on your toes in Dover. You want your car to be a little loose but at the same time, it can’t be too loose. I have high expectations for this weekend.”
That’s all for this week as I look forward to watching my first Chase race this season on Sunday afternoon because my Buffalo Bills are on the road this week in Cincinnati.
Until next time…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!
NOTES FROM THE NASCAR NATION: WHO WILL MILES THE MONSTER SMILE AT?
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase For The Championship rolls onto the Dover International Raceway for Sunday’s running of the A A A 400 on a one mile, concrete laden, speedway known as the Monster Mile. The official mascot for this speedway is a large, angry looking, concrete monster named Miles. Over the years Miles, with his threatening red eyes, has been known to create havoc with the Sprint Cup competitors who dare to enter his domain.
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[/media-credit]That may, or may not, be good news for the 12 drivers in the Chase line up. The teams located in the top half of the Chase standings will be jockeying for position to strengthen their chances of taking the coveted Sprint Cup home in November. The teams in the bottom half of the standings will also be jockeying for positions in order to rekindle their Chase hopes.
Who will Miles the Monster smile on? Who will feel his wrath? We’ll have to wait until Sunday evening to find out. It should be interesting.
THE VEGAS BREAKDOWN
To get a clear picture of which driver is capable of taming the Monster Mile, we again turn to the professionals from the Las Vegas based World Sports Exchange, (WSE), who has generated a very interesting set of numbers.
Jimmie Johnson is sitting on top of the WSE’s list this week at 7 to 1 odds. We all watched what happened to the Lowes #48 team last weekend in New Hampshire. The team simply couldn’t overcome the car’s handling problems. There was even a moment of in car radio discord between the dynamic duo of Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus. The team left New Hampshire tenth in the standings and 29 points out of first.
So how does this free fall translate into the number one seed on the WSE’s list? That simple. Johnson has amazing numbers at Dover that includes a series high six wins, eight top five finishes, 13 top tens along with an average finish ratio, (AFR), of 9.6. That’s the type of strong numbers that places you on top of any one’s list.
Also ranked 7 to 1 is Kyle Busch who is currently sixth in the Chase rankings and 26 points from the top. Busch is a two time winner at Dover with seven top fives and a 13.8 AFR. Many NASCAR observers will tell you that this team seems to be in some sort of free fall. The truth of the matter is: in the first two Chase events Busch has fallen from first to sixth. However, if the car is right Busch could turn out to be a major player in the Dover race. This driver is always a rock solid wager consideration.
At 8 to 1 odds you will find “Concrete” Carl Edwards. When it comes to race tracks with a concrete surface, Edwards just seems to excel at them. He’s currently a rock steady fourth in the Chase standings and only 14 points away from the top. He’s a previous race winner at Dover with six top five finishes and has an excellent 7.6 AFR.
At 9 to 1 you will find the tandem of Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart. Despite a rough start to the Chase at Chicago, Gordon rebounded at New Hampshire and is now fifth in the standings and 23 points away. He’s a four time Dover winner, with a 12.2 AFR, so he understands how to get the job done at this race track. His drive for a fifth Sprint Cup title is definitely on track and he’s also a solid wager consideration for next Sunday.
The same goes for the red hot Tony Stewart. Two consecutive Chase wins has him on top of the standings. Stewart is a two time Dover winner with a healthy 12.5 AFR. Whether or not it’s realistic that he will win three Chase events in a row remains to be seen. However he will be the one man the competition will be gunning for at Dover.
At 10 to 1 is Matt Kenseth who has two wins, including the spring race last May, along with 11 top fives and a 12.4 AFR at Dover. This track is special to Kenseth because it was the scene of his first ever Sprint Cup start. If the car’s handling package is right, he could do that quiet Kenseth thing for much of the race and then turn into a major player at the end.
The once Chase contender everyone is keeping a sharp eye on is Kevin Harvick who’s currently second in the standing and only seven points behind Tony Stewart. However his driver stats at Dover are not very strong. Harvick is still looking for that first Dover win in 21 starts. He only has two top five finishes there and a hefty 17.0 AFR. However if all of the needed racing elements are in place for Harvick, he could turn into a long shot winner and surprise everyone.
The WSE has Roger Penske Racing listed at 15 to 1 this week. A rather unhappy Kurt Busch finds himself ninth in the standings and 28 points away from first. He’s has a fond memory connected to Dover, it was the scene of his first ever Sprint Cup start. However, he still seeking his first win there and has an 18.7 AFR. It might be another long afternoon for Kurt Busch at Dover.
Meanwhile Penske team mate Brad Keselowski is also winless at Dover, has no top fives, no top tens and a 17.7 AFR. Despite those numbers, he’s still an outstanding long shot bet to win on Sunday. Keselowski is like a really great poker player, you just can’t read him. He wasn’t expected to make the Chase line up but drove his way into championship contention anyway. Next, no one expected him to make a solid run for the title but there he is: third in the standings only 11 points from the top.
At 18 to 1 you will find Greg Biffle who is a two time Dover winner with a healthy 11.4 AFR. It’s hardly a secret that Biffle has had a very disappointing season and probably can’t wait for 2012. But he looked strong last weekend at New Hampshire and he could be playing the role of spoiler at Dover. This is a rather interesting long shot wager.
At 20 to 1 is another disappointed driver: Denny Hamlin. A pre season Chase favorite, Hamlin finds himself languishing in 12th in the Chase rankings and a whopping 66 points out of first. Well aware that his championship hopes are virtually gone, Hamlin recently said his focus was now all about winning races. Don’t look for him to start that trend at Dover. He’s winless there with a 20.9 AFR and he’s never actually led a lap on the Monster Mile. Hamlin may indeed light a fire under his post season effort in the near future but don’t expect it to start this Sunday.
The WSE has drivers Clint Bowyer and Mark Martin ranked at 25 to 1 for the Dover race. Bowyer is still seeking a win, as well as a top five finish, at Dover and has a 14.8 AFR. Despite that he still has the potential of being a spoiler next Sunday.
Mark Martin has excellent driver stats at Dover that includes four wins, a series high 23 top fives and 31 top tens along with a healthy 12.3 AFR. That’s the good news. The bad news is: those outstanding numbers were compiled quite some time ago.
At 30 to 1 you will find the trio of Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman. Earnhardt is currently eighth in the Chase rankings, 26 points away. He’s a former Dover winner with a 17.8 AFR there. However he has not scored a top ten finish at Dover in his last seven starts. It might turn out to be another long Sunday for the Junior Nation.
Kasey Kahne would love to get Red Bull Racing a win this season before he moves on to Hendrick Motorsports next year. Sadly, it may not happen at Dover where Kahne has no wins or top fives and a hefty AFR of 23.8.
Ryan Newman is 11th in the Chase standings and 34 points away. If all of the racing components falls into place this Sunday he could turn out to be a long shot surprise. He’s a three time Dover winner with six top fives and a very healthy AFR of 10.9.
Concluding the WSE list this week, at 35 to 1, are drivers Jeff Burton, A J Allmendinger and Martin Truex Jr who scored his first Cup win at Dover. Joey Logano concludes the list at 40 to 1. Any driver not on the WSE list are automatically rated at 10 to 1 odds.
Now for the disclaimer: NASCAR wants us to remind you that these numbers should be viewed for informational and entertainment purposes. They neither encourage nor condone the placing of wagers on their events. But if you’re going to spread a few Benjamins around anyway then take a good look at the top five names on the WSE list. They’re all rock solid wagers.
THE RACE BREAKDOWN
The A A A 400 is 400 laps/400 miles around the Dover International Speedway’s one mile concrete oval.
The race has 44 entries vying for the 43 starting positions. Nine of those entries are on the go or go home list meaning they are not guaranteed a starting berth because they are currently outside of NASCAR’s top 35 in owner’s points. These teams will have to rely on qualifying speed to make the race.
The Dover International Speedway was opened in 1969. The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held in July of 1969 and was won by Richard Petty. Since that time the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series has ran 83 races at Dover that has sent 32 different drivers to victory lane.
Bobby Allison and Richard Petty leads the all time Dover win list with seven trips each to victory lane. Jimmie Johnson leads the modern era drivers with six wins. Hendrick Motorsports leads the team win category with 12. Chevrolet leads the manufacturer’s category with 31 wins.
The track qualifying record, 161.522 MPH, was set by Jeremy Mayfield back in June of 2004. There has been 35 different pole winners at Dover led by Hall of Fame member David Pearson who has six. Over the years 13 Dover events have been won from the pole position. 50 races have been won from the top five starting berths but only 18 races have been won from outside of the top ten.
The Dover International Speedway’s one mile surface was converted from asphalt to concrete in 1995. The turns have 24 degrees of banking while the straightaways, each measuring 1,076 feet, are banked nine degrees. The speedway currently has seating for 135,000 fans. The speedway’s pit road has 43 stalls measuring 15 feet wide by 32 feet long. The pit road speed is 35 MPH. The pit window is 72 to 76 laps based on the team’s individual fuel mileage stats.
Weather could possibly hamper Friday practice sessions. The Dover forecast calls for cloudy skies and a 20 percent chance of showers and a daytime high of 75 degrees. Saturday’s forecast calls for light clouds and 61 degrees while Sunday race day weather will be partly sunny conditions and 60 degrees. In the event of rain, the speedway has four jet dryers that can dry the track is about 90 minutes.
Sunday’s A A A 400 will be broadcast live by ESPN at 2 pm eastern time. The race re airs will be on Monday morning, 1230 am et, on ESPN 2 and on Wednesday, October 5th, on SPEED at 12 pm et.
