Liam Lawson sounded frustrated before the Brazilian Grand Prix. “I don’t know what else they want me to do,” he said. He is ninth in the standings, yet he still has no deal for 2027. Most teams have named their drivers by now. Three seats have not been settled. They belong to Oliver Bearman at Haas, and to Lawson and Arvid Lindblad at Racing Bulls. Here is the case for and against each of them, and a name to replace one.
Bearman: a good year without a deal
Start with Bearman, because his case looks the strongest. He has 23 points this season. Teammate Esteban Ocon has 7, and Ocon is leaving Haas. Team boss Ayao Komatsu is confident about the new deal. “We will get it done, for sure,” he said. Bearman says he wants to stay, and he backs himself against the new arrival. He is now the senior driver at Haas, a role he wanted from the start of the year. The case against him is small, but it is real. Contract talks have been slow because of details on the contract side. Ferrari also has a big say, since Bearman is a Ferrari junior. So is Rafael Câmara, who Haas has already signed for 2027. And 23 points is not a lot. Haas has also shown it can act fast. It swapped Ocon for another driver in the middle of the Mexico City weekend. If Haas did look elsewhere, the easy choice is Ryo Hirakawa. He is the Haas reserve and won Le Mans in 2022. In Mexico City he scored a point on his debut.
Lawson: points, but no promise
Lawson has 89 points and is ninth, 47 clear of Pierre Gasly. Over their first 14 races together, he beat Lindblad 10 to 4 on Sundays and 9 to 5 in qualifying. In Brazil, he qualified fifth, started third after penalties, and finished seventh. Racing Bulls are fifth in the constructors’ standings, and Lawson has scored most of their points. He even filled in at Red Bull this season while Isack Hadjar was hurt, and he scored 14 points there. So why is he waiting? Red Bull has a longer plan. Lawson lost his Red Bull seat after two races in 2025 and went back to Racing Bulls. A young driver is now knocking at the door. Lawson says the public support is welcome, but he would prefer clear backing from inside Red Bull. Most seats are full, so if he loses this one, he would likely need a reserve role. Team boss Alan Permane summed it up. “Three doesn’t fit into two, of course,” he said.
Lindblad: a rookie who keeps finishing
Lindblad is in his first F1 season. By September, he had finished every race he started, never lower than 14th. He scored points in nine of his first 14 starts and often looks quick in qualifying. He now has 38 points and sits 11th. Against him, he trails Lawson, and he just missed the points in Brazil. Red Bull also has to find room for its next junior. Still, a rookie who rarely makes mistakes is worth a second year. Drivers often take a step forward when the car and the team feel familiar. A first year is a short test, and a second year gives a fairer one.
The replacement: Nikola Tsolov
That next junior is Nikola Tsolov, a Bulgarian who is second in Formula 2 with two rounds left. F2 boss Bruno Michel says he is ready for F1. But he adds that this is no promise of a seat. Tsolov had his first Friday practice in Mexico City and finished 12th, just 0.126 seconds behind Lindblad. Lindblad even posted what looked like a hint that Tsolov would be his teammate, then edited it. Many reports now say Lawson is the favourite to stay, and that Tsolov could wait as a reserve. Seat news moves fast, and many fans like to back their view with a bet. If you do, Warga88 runs an online sportsbook, but only stake what you can afford to lose.
My pick, and the phone call
Here is my pick. Keep Bearman, because he has earned it. Keep Lindblad, because rookies need a second year. Then give Tsolov the Lawson seat. That sounds hard on Lawson, who has done little wrong. But Tsolov has the F2 results, and Racing Bulls exists to bring juniors through. If Red Bull wants to wait a year, Tsolov can be the reserve, and Lawson can stay. That would be a fair deal too, and it keeps a good driver in the sport. The news is expected before the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Lawson asked what else they want from him. Soon he should get his answer.
