Each Sunday, you can look at the odds board and see who’s supposed to win. It’s usually Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, or Ryan Blaney, each sitting around +300 to +450; if on a road course, it’s Shane van Gisbergen at a price that will barely pay you. So we went through every Cup points race in 2025 and 2026, all 72, and checked who the race-day favorite was and if they actually won.
The short answer: the favorite won about 32% of the time, 23 of the 72.
That’s better than most would guess. At +350, you only need to win about 22% of the time to break even, and at +400, just 20%. So someone betting a driver who is favored at +350 or higher every week would come out ahead. There is a catch: almost all the profit came from two kinds of tracks.
Road and Street Courses: The Chalk Lives Here
Over the past 2 years, the favorite won 7 of 10 road and street events. Van Gisbergen claimed all 7. His dominance included winning at Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and Charlotte Roval in 2025. He followed this up with wins at Watkins Glen and Sonoma in 2026.
However, Vegas wised up, and his success led them to adjust his price to reflect it. When a guy starts winning, the books stop paying. He was almost an even-money favorite at the Roval. He was also favored at COTA both years but lost both, and he lost again on the new San Diego street course.
Intermediate tracks: Where the Favorites Were Profitable
The sweet spots were the 1.5- and 2-mile ovals where the favorite won 13 of 37, about 35% of the time. Their usual prices were in the +300 to +400 range. The favorite, Larson, won at Homestead and twice at Kansas; Hamlin at Michigan, Nashville, and Pocono; and Reddick at Darlington and Kansas. If you were going to back a favorite anywhere, this is where it paid.
Short Tracks and Superspeedways: Avoid!
Here is where it falls apart. On short tracks, favorites went 2-11: Larson at Bristol and William Byron at Martinsville in 2025.
Superspeedways were even worse. A single favorite came out on top at Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta in 12 races, and that was Blaney at Atlanta in 2026. Favorites at Daytona and Talladega are usually +700 or higher, which tells you the books know it’s a lottery too.
What the Pole sitter tells you
We also looked at pole position, and qualifying is the one piece of race-weekend info everyone has, and it’s a decent assumption for “the fast car.”
From 2001 to 2026, the pole sitter won 129 of 936 in Cup Series races, about 14%. On average, the driver in pole position finishes 12th. Winners started the race around 10th, and roughly one in eight came from 20th or worse.
The Next Gen car, from 2022 on, changed it up a bit:
- Road courses: pole sitters won 7 of 27, almost 26%. Track position matters on a road course, and the fast car tends to stay up front.
- Intermediates: pole sitters won about 15%, and 57% of winners started in the top five.
- Short tracks: one pole win in 32 races. Just One! Starting up front at Martinsville or Bristol means almost nothing now.
- Superspeedways: pole sitters won 5 of 30, but almost a quarter of winners came from the back of the pack starting 20th or higher.
So we can see that the tracks that favor the “fastest” car align with the tracks where the favorite sees success. The tracks where pack racing, cautions, and pit strategy decide the winner are the ones that bury the chalk.
How we’d use this
We’d take a hard look at favorites on intermediate ovals, especially when they qualify well. On road courses, the favorite is probably the right pick, but Las Vegas knows that, and the price often isn’t worth it. So considering a top five or head-to-head bet makes more sense. On shorts and supers, we’d skip favorites and look further down the board, or just stick to matchups.
The favorite is the most likely winner, but on many tracks they still lose about two out of three times. Picking the right tracks matters more than picking the favorite.
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