When The Weather Gets Hotter, Smoke Catches Fire
Tony Stewart; the man you should never count out no matter what. Tony said prior to the 2011 chase that he didn’t even deserve to be in it with how poorly he was running. Two months and five wins later, he was hoisting the Sprint Cup trophy at Homestead. This year, Stewart-Haas Racing has had a rough time finding their footing with these Generation Six cars and have been forced to endure some pretty bad days at the track. Tony went into the Coke 600 21st in the standings and with just one top 10 through the first eleven races. Since that race, he’s finished no worse than 7th and comfortably sits 10th in points. Now that’s an incredible turnaround.
I believed that they would get their internal issues worked out which they have but I never thought he’d go on such a tear and make his way back into the top 10 before June was even half over! The resurgence of SHR after a dismal start is impressive and the results will only improve as the season rolls on. In the eight races preceding Charlotte, Tony had a best finish of 15th. Since that race, he’s finished 7th, 1st, 4th and 5th launching him up the leader board and into chase contention. History says that Stewart runs better when the weather gets hotter which is understandable considering the slick conditions that kind of weather creates has some similarities to running a dirt track where you have to muscle the car around every lap…a form of racing Stewart excels at. Now we go to a road course and after sifting through the ringers that show up for these events, full-timers such as Ambrose, Montoya, Busch (both of them), Gordon and Stewart become the obvious favorites.
I don’t think Tony will pick up his second win of the year at Sonoma which would all but solidify him as a 2013 chaser but I do think he will have another good run padding his lead over 11th. That is, unless he lets his temper get the best of him like he did back in 2011 here. My advice to anyone that sees the 3-time champ in their mirror this weekend, do not block him or you’re going to have a very bad day. Last year, Tony brought home a runner-up finish at this 12 turned California venue and got to the bumper of eventual winner Clint Bowyer but no further. Temperatures this weekend at Sonoma will be in the 80’s which bodes well for an on the edge driver like Tony Stewart who has two wins and three 2nd place finishes at this unique road course.
Will Tony Stewart be able to keep this remarkable performance going or will he begin to fall off again? I personally think he’ll snag another win or two before Richmond, make the chase and finish well in points but he won’t be sitting at the champion’s table in Vegas. I think someone with the last name of Kenseth or Kahne will have that honor but that’s a thought for a whole other conversation. Stewart has gained credence as a title contender and just a few weeks ago, everyone wanted to write him off as even procuring a chase berth. The dynamic of 2013 is changing…Ford’s are gaining ground, SHR are contenders again and JGR is losing the stranglehold they had on the field.
Tempers will definitely flare this weekend as racing room is limited but at the same time, a necessity. Imprudent decisions will be made and drivers will get their feelings hurt. Whoever can survive this brutal event where pushing and shoving is the name of the game will find themselves in a very good position to obtain a solid finish or even a victory. If Tony isn’t in the middle of all the carnage and chaos, then he might just be that guy celebrating in victory lane.
Hot 20 over the past 10 – Where is that vain, obnoxious, temperamental Kurt Busch we used to love to loathe?
I like Kurt Busch. There, I said it. Do not get me wrong. The Kurt Busch who mouthed off and got punched in the head by Jimmy Spencer, he I did not much care for. The Robo-Kurt, who acted as phoney as a $3 bill, only to show his true colors by mouthing off a respected reporter like Dr. Jerry Punch a couple of years ago, I did not much care for that jackass either. The underdog, driving for a single car operation out of Denver, Colorado, he I do like.
Barney Visser’s Furniture Row Motorsports has been around since 2005, participating in 214 Sprint Cup events over that time. They have just 16 Top Tens, but half of that number have come in the 21 races Busch has been behind the wheel. Regan Smith had the others. They have just 6 Top Fives, half of them claimed by Busch over the first 15 races of the current season. Smith had the other three, but in 84 contests. So, either Smith found more money sitting around when Smith drove for him, and then found a bunch more the past couple of years, or they finally got a driver who can take their equipment to new heights. I am guessing Kurt Busch is that reason.
While Smith gave Visser his only chance to visit Victory Lane at Darlington in 2011, Busch seems poised to match that sometime this year. He has one pole and four times he has started on the front row. He might be sitting 20th in the standings, but he is only 33 points out of the Top Ten. A win or two, and a place in the Chase would be their’s.
In fact, their effort is not even reflected in the standings. When they have raced, they mattered. Too bad they finished 20th or worse to start the first three races of the current campaign, Four times since they have been 30th or worse, including last week at Michigan. Three times they have been bad, four others have been awful. As for the remaining eight, their worst finish has been 15th. If they could just keep the parts together and keep away from the things that turn fenders into so much trash, they would do so much better.
Will they do it, will they make the Chase? They could, but they are an underdog. It is a role that fits Busch well, one that appears to have finally matured him. For a man who turns 35 this August I guess it is about time, but some prima donnas never do mature. It is truly refreshing to discover one who appears to have done just that.
What he needs to do at Sonoma on Sunday is to get hot again, as Busch slips out of our Top 20. Kasey Kahne and Brad Keselowski are two other boys who are a lot colder lately than what they are ranked over the season.
As some drop, others rise, and sometimes the numbers do not make much sense. Juan Pablo Montoya finishes 20th last week, yet rises eight positions on this chart. Huh? Horrid days experienced by Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Jeff Gordon helped, especially when a good day is replaced by a bad one in our ten race window. Montoya was 18 places better at Michigan than he was Fontana, while Gordon was 28 worse, Kahne 29, and Junior 35. That will do it.
Jimmie Johnson remains the one with the hot hand and our top five remain the same as they take on the road course in California.
| Name | Points | POS | LW | Rank | W | T5 | T10 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 355 | 1 | 1 | (1) | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Clint Bowyer | 352 | 2 | 4 | (3) | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| Kevin Harvick | 346 | 3 | 3 | (4) | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Carl Edwards | 343 | 4 | 2 | (2) | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Matt Kenseth | 315 | 5 | 5 | (5) | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Tony Stewart | 309 | 6 | 8 | (10) | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Kyle Busch | 289 | 7 | 7 | (6) | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Jeff Burton | 285 | 8 | 11 | (17) | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 283 | 9 | 16 | (13) | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Greg Biffle | 279 | 10 | 15 | (8) | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Aric Almirola | 279 | 11 | 10 | (15) | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Juan Pablo Montoya | 278 | 12 | 20 | (22) | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Jeff Gordon | 275 | 13 | 6 | (16) | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Ryan Newman | 268 | 14 | 14 | (18) | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Paul Menard | 261 | 15 | 17 | (11) | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joey Logano | 259 | 16 | 18 | (14) | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| Jamie McMurray | 250 | 17 | 19 | (21) | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | 250 | 18 | 21 | (19) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kasey Kahne | 248 | 19 | 12 | (12) | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | 248 | 20 | 9 | (7) | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Kurt Busch | 247 | 21 | 13 | (20) | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Brad Keselowski | 243 | 22 | 22 | (9) | 0 | 1 | 4 |
