This was pretty tough to put together. Honestly, anybody in the top 10 outside of first could be ranked in any order, and so many teams are so good it’s tough to put them in order.
One thing I’ve noticed is that the good drivers keep getting better. In 2005, Tony Stewart won the championship with five top-fives and seven top-10s, with no wins during the Chase. Eight years later, Jimmie Johnson wins the championship with two wins, seven top-fives, and nine top-10s, with all 10 races in the Chase being top-15 finishes. While the quality of racing may not be as good as it was in 2005, nobody can argue the competition has become more fierce.
Remember though, that this list is my opinion. You are allowed to disagree and give me yours in the comment section below.
I ranked this using Chase Results, overall season stats, off-season changes and my opinion on the driver. This is not my predictions for final 2014 points, only who is the best going into the season. I do not count Nationwide Series results unless the driver raced for points in that series last season; this is why Kyle Busch isn’t first and Larson and Dillon are where they are.
Honorable Mention: AJ Allmendinger
What a comeback year for the 32 year old driver from California. After losing the ride of a lifetime in 2012 after failing a drug test, he gets rehired by Penske Racing to run a few IndyCar and Nationwide Series races and over performs. He won both of his Nationwide races last season and might have won the Indy 500 if it were not for a broken seat belt. Then he gets hired by JTG-Daugherty and gives them the best runs in that car since Marcos Ambrose ran it, with a shot to win Watkins Glen in particular. All of this without mentioning his top-15 runs helping to put the tiny James Finch team in the top-10 in Sprint Cup owner points in the early portion of the 2013 season.
20: Jamie McMurray
The 2010 Daytona 500 champion enters 2014 as the veteran driver of Chip Ganassi Racing (CGR). Outside of Loudon and his Talladega win, he really didn’t do much in the Chase. He can make the 2014 Chase, but his two main problems are constituency and he needs to turn top-20s into top-10s, and top-10s into top-fives.
19. Carl Edwards
My, how the mighty have fallen. After tying with Tony Stewart for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship in points in 2011 (losing on tiebreaker), he missed the Chase in 2012 and had the single worst point finish of any Chaser in history. (Nobody has finished worse than 12th before, Edwards finished 13th).
18. Greg Biffle
Biffle is the quietest guy in the Cup Series. I almost completely forgot about him when making this ranking. If he wants to move from 10th in points to top five, he needs to do better than 16th or worse in three Chase races.
17. Kyle Larson
This guy has a lot of talent, as has been said before. He’s a huge question mark this season. Is it too early? Can CGR compete with other teams? “The Knife” could have a typical rookie season, be incredibly successful or be like Danica Patrick and finish 27th in points.
16. Kasey Kahne
Next year’s champion? Every single year I see people say this will be Kahne’s season, almost more so than a certain driver in a bright yellow Toyota. In reality, almost every season he struggles to make the Chase. Then if he does make the Chase, he usually doesn’t do much or is too inconsistent to do much. Last season in particular, I think his big hurdle is that when it gets down to it, he can’t close and get the win. Just look at his awesome duels with Kenseth all throughout 2013 and who ended up going to Victory Lane in every one of them.
15. Ryan Newman
It was a roller coaster season for the “Ogre from South Bend.” First he loses his ride, then that very week he wins at his home track in Indianapolis. Then he gets screwed out of the Chase due to Michael Waltrip Racing (MWR) shenanigans, but was put in it anyway. Now he’s with a new Richard Childress Racing (RCR) where the only returning driver is Paul Menard. It’s going to be interesting to see what Newman will do in the No. 31 compared to Jeff Burton, who did a lot of nothing over the past two years.
14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Here’s my crazy prediction for this season – Stenhouse will contend for the Chase and win a couple of races. He’s got a year under his belt now and he has his old Nationwide championship winning crew chief now. He scored all three of his top-10s in the last 11 races of the season. I think he’s also going to continue being way ahead of Danica Patrick. When she said that she wanted to be the one among the two who got the first victory, I really doubt I was the only one who out and out belly laughed.
13. Denny Hamlin
Everything since 2010 Homestead has been downhill for Hamlin. Yes he won five races in 2012, but only one of those was in the Chase. Winning races is good and all, but at this point in Hamlin’s career, you need to be competing for championships year in and year out. Even if he wasn’t knocked out of action at Auto Club Speedway, I really doubt he would have competed for one in 2013. The only reason he’s this high on the list is because of four top-10s in the final six races along with a win at Homestead.
12. Joey Logano
Logano finally buckled down and made the Chase last season, even though he was too inconsistent to do much. He didn’t make many friends last season at all, but he finally grew as a driver and is starting to live up to his potential while breaking the 22 car curse. A great thing going for him is his teammate. Say what you will about Brad Keselowski, but it isn’t like Logano had a former champion to help him out back with Gibbs.
11. Clint Bowyer
This team might have very well won the championship or at least could have been a contender before Richmond. It took a lot of momentum from MWR as a whole and Bowyer’s team might have suffered the most with them being in the center of the controversy. He may change things in 2014 but he enters it at an all time low.
10. Austin Dillon
Dillon is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year (ROTY) and the Nationwide Series championship. Yes, he didn’t win a race last season in Nationwide, but that’s primarily because of Sprint Cup drivers winning 26 races last year (28 if you count AJ Allmendinger, which I don’t.) He’s going to have enormous pressure coming into this season, as would any driver stepping into that No. 3 Chevy.
9. Kurt Busch
He took a tiny team into the Chase and gave all of the bigger teams a run for their money. Now he’s finally back in a car with the best equipment in the business and with a championship winning team in Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR). Don’t call it a comeback, because he never really left.
8. Brad Keselowski
The 2012 Champ started off 2013 wrong and it just kept getting worse and worse. Part of the problem has to have been Roush-Yates engines not being ready to support two more full time teams, as the Fords in general struggled this year.
7. Tony Stewart
Okay, he might be a strange choice to be in the top 10, but let me explain. I think he’s one of the best pure drivers in NASCAR, and I think he’s going to enter this season ready to make up for lost time.
6. Jeff Gordon
Just missing out on a top five spot in 2013, Gordon’s Chase personified his career the past few years. He’ll do consistently well, even winning a race, before something happens, in this case, a wreck at Texas on lap 75. If you don’t count that, he’s in the top 15 in every single race from Bristol onward.
5. Matt Kenseth
Yes, I know I’m going to get a lot of hate mail for this. It seems really strange having the runner-up in points who won seven races last year, only fifth, but I think the runner-up hangover is just too strong to get over. Bowyer couldn’t, Edwards couldn’t, and it’s still affecting Hamlin four years later. I don’t see how he’s going to be that different.
4. Kyle Busch
The 18 team are the Dallas Cowboys of NASCAR. They either fail to make the playoffs against all odds, or they do and choke away the championship either way. And like Dallas, it’s really sad to see it happen, because outside of the play-offs they are supremely talented and always a threat every week. You also either love them or hate them. There is very little middle ground.
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
I think Earnhardt’s big problem this year is the new crew chief search. That will always distract a driver when it happens to them, in some way. It’s a shame too, because he and Letarte finally started clicking together this season, the final eight races in particular.
2. Kevin Harvick
The only problem Harvick might have next season is that SHR is spreading itself a bit thin. Otherwise, he has all the momentum and now he’s in absolute top of the line equipment, not the RCR stuff that only he can win with.
1. Jimmie Johnson
Who were you expecting to be up here? If Jimmie wins nine races and the championship this season, he’ll match Earnhardt Sr. in wins and championships in roughly five less full-time seasons. And the scary thing is that I think nobody in the entire sport would be shocked if he has that kind of season. Case in point: his worst finish in the Chase was a 13th at Talladega, the place where luck takes priority over talent or equipment. Other than that, he had seven top-fives, a sixth at Kansas and a ninth at Homestead, where he was more concerned with finishing the race rather than getting the best result possible. Can anybody stop Johnson? Possibly but I wouldn’t bet on it.
