This week we travel back to the place that was the start of my NASCAR days. Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen International marks my 19th consecutive year at The Glen and it’s a track near and dear to my heart, and no matter where life takes me, it will always serve as my ‘Hometown Track’. The Glen may not be the most famous stock car track in the world, but it produces some of the best beating and banging NASCAR has to offer. The past two NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at The Glen have also produced arguably the best finishes in as many seasons, so if you’re thinking about

My first memories of WGI involve standing on a trash can on the inside of Turn 11 while my father tried to time a photo just right in order to capture a snapshot of The Intimidator and one of his biggest fans in the same frame. That moment is one of the most special memories I have in racing and is something that keeps me coming back year after year.

In my teenage years, Ed Coombs taught me the art of obtaining autographs outside the motor-coach lots when Ron Hornaday invited me inside the fences and into his motor-coach for a quick autograph and meet and greet, so I’ve had some great experiences at The Glen over the years.

I’ve had some great times at Watkins Glen over the years, and continue to add to my bank of memories each year.

Now that the trip down memory lane is over, we can get to some numbers, and we’ll start with how important it is to qualify well at The Glen. Nine of the thirty races at Watkins Glen have been won from the pole position, including 3 straight wins from the pole for Mark Martin from 1993-1995. To add to my point, 22 of the 30 races all-time have been won from starting spots inside the top 10, and the furthest back a race winner has started was Steve Park from the 18th position back in 2000.

The starting field has been set and two-time Watkins Glen winner and overwhelming favorite, Marcos Ambrose will start on the pole with Clint Bowyer sharing the front row with Ambrose. The other road-course winner in 2013, Martin Truex Jr. will start from the third position with another Toyota in AJ Allmendinger starting fourth. Kyle Busch will start fifth, and the Sonoma pole-sitter, Jamie McMurray will start next to Busch on row number three.

Last year’s race finished in dramatic fashion as Marcos Ambrose and champion-to-be Brad Keselowski traded paint on and off the racing surface during the race’s final lap, also being voted as one of the best finishes in NASCAR HISTORY.

Since practice, qualifying, and now the NASCAR Nationwide series race have all concluded, I’m ready to try and make some educated picks and share my thoughts for the outcome of tomorrow’s 28th Annual Cheez-It 355 at The Glen.

Winner Pick

On Wednesday, I previewed the race this weekend at The Glen with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, and I had Kyle Busch as my top pick, Marcos Ambrose as my number two guy, and Martin Truex Jr. and AJ Allmendinger as longshot plays this week. One factor in my picks on Wednesday which is a bit different than my column here on SpeedwayMedia.com is the odds at the time of my picks. On Wednesday, Marcos Ambrose was the overwhelming favorite to win at Watkins Glen this weekend. The odds were a bit better with Kyle Busch at 8 to 1 so I made him my top pick on Wednesday.

Well, I’m going to swap my top pick for my number two pick from Wednesday for a couple of reasons. I’ve recently been making picks based on trends, not steering from the recent race trends. Here is the trend I found the last time a driver won three Sprint Cup races in a row at Watkins Glen International – they started on the pole at least once. Both Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon, the two drivers who have won three in a row at The Glen both started on the pole during their stretch of wins.

Marcos Ambrose has two wins in a row at Watkins Glen going into Sunday’s race, and both of those wins were not from the pole or the front row even. The pole position is the most proficient starting spot in the field producing 9 wins in 30 races. The best road-course driver in stock car racing has that pole position for tomorrow’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen and was extremely modest about his record-breaking lap after he claimed the Coors Light Pole,

“It was a great lap. It wasn’t perfect. It wasn’t the cleanest lap I could have done, but it certainly carried a lot of momentum and it was enough to get the job done….We were the lucky one on the day to get the pole, so I’m very proud of our day. I’m looking forward to the race and feel like we have as good a chance as anybody to win and go three in a row.”

It’s that confidence I like, and with his first practice session being spent in race trim and the No. 9 team being shown second on the speed charts, its’ Ambrose as my Winner Pick this week.

Dark Horse Pick

Unlike my winner pick, my Dark Horse or longer plays have not changed. I like both Martin Truex Jr. and AJ Allmendinger who were my longshot plays on Wednesday. It was Truex who was shown on top of the speed charts in first practice on Friday in both speed and best 10 lap average, and it’s Truex as my Dark Horse of the week.

Martin Truex Jr. likes the car Michael Waltrip Racing has provided for him this week, and it’s again the confidence I like at a track as tough as Watkins Glen.

“Typically we have not qualified well here. We always raced well. We had such a good car in race trim (on Friday). I felt like we were definitely the fastest car here and that kind of made me back off a little bit (in qualifying) to get a nice and consistent lap in.”

Those are my picks, be sure to tune in to www.PrimeSportsNetwork.com  at 7:00PM tonight as Greg, Ed Coombs, and I give a final preview of tomorrow’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen. Follow me on Twitter @ML_B_Lo for live action from Watkins Glen International.

So, until next time…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!