Can Keselowski Catch Johnson?
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[/media-credit]The question that most Sprint Cup fans are asking doesn’t have any good answer. Can Keselowski catch him? Immediately one can look at the seven point deficit and notice that finishing four places above Jimmie Johnson in two races, not considering the bonus points for leading laps, is a monumental task. Is it possible? Yes. Is it plausible? Not likely.
When NASCAR decided to come up with the playoff system that we now know as the Chase, they didn’t change much about the final ten races, which was supposed to be the playoff. In the beginning it began with New Hampshire and ended at NASCAR’s owned track at Homestead, Florida. It didn’t work out, but they added Chicagoland, just another mile and a half that the Lowe’s team thrives at, and nothing changed. In fact, it made more of an advantage for the No. 48 team. So it plays out this year like all the rest of the past seven years. Game over.
This is not an indictment of Jimmie Johnson, the Lowe’s team for Hendrick Motorsports. They know the program and base their season on the last ten races. They may lag behind in the first 26 races (when Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth seemed to be at the top most of the season), but they are prepared for the final ten races where they shine. It’s a good strategy. Play by the rules, which might be an outrageous statement when considering the No. 48 team, is how you win. When you go to the same tracks at the end of the season in your playoff you get what you deserve—a boring finish.
Last year was different. You had Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart fighting it out. Edwards took the lead and fought hard during the “playoffs,” but tied Stewart with the championship coming down to the number of wins. This year it is different. Despite Keselowski’s valiant and sometimes inhuman effort using pit strategy and banking on luck, it seems to come down to skill versus desire. Skill usually wins in these cases, and that will be the decisive factor this year. Keselowski’s somewhat inexperience combined with the experience of Rick Hendrick’s team will prevail as usual. I don’t see any way that the Johnson freight train will derail. And that makes a very important point. After Phoenix, how many will tune in or attend for the final Ford Championship weekend at Homestead? I fear the worst.
The whole point of the Chase format was that it would create excitement for the end of the season and create a so-called horse race. Unfortunately, while it worked in 2011, it isn’t working this year, and probably won’t in most years. Racing is so different than stick and ball sports. Trying to emulate the playoff system in those sports is futile. Yes, we can have a system like the NFL, the model for the Chase, was a bad attempt at creating excitement, but it never takes into account the fact that the NFL, the NBA, or even MLB, have no advantage or certain tracks. They get to be home and away, with the advantage going to the home team. In the NASCAR world, the home advantage clearly exists with one team. Until the final ten races are changed, you can expect the same result forever and ever. Don’t forget that 2011 was an aberration. The sooner that NASCAR changes the schedule, the better this end of season thing will become. Unfortunately, that’s a hard thing to do. Add Darlington and Bristol? Great idea. Get rid of New Hampshire and adding Richmond? Yes. But it highlights the real problem.
There is no reason to have a playoff in NASCAR. Run the races from one to 36. Crown a champion and place the emphasis on each race during the season and giving proper kudos to the winner. That’s the way it always was and why wasn’t that good enough today when it was what built the sport? Beats me.
NOTES FROM THE NASCAR NATION: A LUCAS OIL TAIL GATE PARTY IN PHOENIX
Lucas Oil would cordially like to invite all racing fans to their NASCAR tail gate party to be held Friday, November 9th, at the Phoenix International Raceway. The Lucas Oil 150 NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race is guaranteed to provide all of the tail gate excitement expected from NASCAR’s truck brigade. The race will also present some serious championship implications between two young NASCAR superstars of the future. All of this will transpire on a one mile, basically flat, oval with a new pavement and configuration that the series has never raced on before. How could the Lucas Oil 150 not be a major tail gate party?
THE STORY BREAKDOWN
The big story line, associated with the Lucas Oil 150, is the status of the series championship and the young lion drivers who are on top of these standings. With only two races left in the season, James Buescher, representing Turner Motorsports, tops the championship numbers with a 15 points advantage over Ty Dillon, representing Richard Childress Racing. In a racing environment where literally anything can happen, and often does, 15 points is not exactly a championship security blanket. Mathematically speaking, Buescher can clinch the series’ championship if he leaves Phoenix 48 points ahead of second place. That’s scenario is not exactly an impossible goal to reach, but it’s not exactly likely to happen either.
While Buescher will certainly be focused on getting the maximum points from Friday night’s Lucas Oil 150, in the back of his mind he may be thinking that the Phoenix International Raceway owes him one from last year. During the series’ 2011 event, Buescher’s truck was mysteriously off the pace to the point he missed earning a starting berth by a mere two-one hundredths of a second during qualifying. The team would rebound, turn in some impressive numbers during the 2011 season and finish third in the final championship standings 29 points out of first. Many series observers at the time felt Buescher would have won his first series championship last year had it not been for what happened at Phoenix.
The two championship contenders will have plenty of competition from some other eager young lions entered in the Lucas Oil 150. David Mayhew, from the NASCAR K&N Pro Series West, will receive another shot at competing in a NASCAR’s national series in Brad Keselowski Racing’s #19 Dodge Ram. Ryan Blaney, an up and comer that many believes has a very bright NASCAR future, will be driving BKR’s second Dodge Truck.
Other young lions in the field includes Kyle Larson, the newly crowned NASCAR K&N Pro Series East champion, who will be driving a Turner Motorsports Chevy Truck in the race. Ryan Truex will be trying to make his presence felt behind the wheel of Michael Hillman’s Toyota. Kyle Busch Motorsports will have NASCAR Nationwide Series driver Brian Scott behind the wheel of their famed #18 Toyota. KBM will also field a second Toyota for German Quiroga, the three time champion from the NASCAR Toyota Mexico Series.
The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series’ last appearance at the Phoenix International Raceway was in February of last year. Since that time the raceway underwent a massive reconfiguration complete with brand new asphalt. That will present a brand new challenge to the truck drivers and could add another level of potential excitement during the Lucas Oil 150.
THE RACE BREAKDOWN
The Lucas Oil 150 is 150laps/150miles around the Phoenix International Raceway’s 1 mile oval.
The race has 38 posted entries vying for the 36 starting berths. 13 of those entries are on the go or go home list meaning they are not guaranteed a starting berth in the Lucas Oil 150 because they are currently outside of the series’ top 25 in owner’s points. These teams will have to rely on qualifying speeds to make the race.
There will be no repeat champion for this year’s Lucas Oil 150. Defending race champion Kyle Busch is not entered in this year’s race.
The challenging Phoenix International Raceway is basically a flat track with only 11 degrees of banking in turns one and two and nine degrees in turns three and four. The frontstretch, measuring 1,179 feet, is only banked three degrees while the backstretch, 1,551 feet long, has nine degrees of banking.
The Lucas Oil 150 will be broadcast live by the SPEED Channel Friday night beginning at 730 pm eastern time. A replay is scheduled for Saturday morning at 130 am eastern.
NASCAR Top-10 Power Rankings: Texas
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[/media-credit]Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.
1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson passed Brad Keselowski with two laps to go at Texas and pulled away to win at Texas, his second consecutive win in the Chase. Johnson extended his lead in the point standings, and now holds a seven point edge on Keselowski.
“That may have been the second-best ‘restart’ of my career,” Johnson said. “The best, of course, would be the ‘restart’ to another multi-Cup championship run.
“Of course, it was quite fitting that I fired the celebratory ‘six-shooter’ after the race, a sound which heralded my quest for my sixth Cup title. The bullets weren’t real, mind you. Judging by the number of pregnant wives and girlfriends in NASCAR this year, I must have been the only one ‘shooting blanks.’”
2. Brad Keselowski: Holding the lead with two laps to go at Texas, Keselowski was passed on the restart by Jimmie Johnson and finished second. After leading the championship standings with four races to go, Keselowski is now seven points back of Johnson.
“Seven points is not insurmountable,” Keselowski said, “but Johnson may be. Unfortunately, I find myself behind the ’48-ball.’”
3. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer finished sixth in the AAA Texas 500, earning his 21st top-10 result of the year. He is third in the point standings, 26 behind Jimmie Johnson.
“Until someone tells me otherwise,” Bowyer said, “I’ll keep racing like I have a chance to win the Cup. Keep in mind, I don’t like people telling me things.”
4. Denny Hamlin: After his disastrous result at Martinsville two weeks ago, Hamlin finished a disappointing 20th at Texas. Deemed a threat to win the Cup just three weeks ago, Hamlin is now well out of the championship picture, 49 out of first in the point standings.
“Our Sprint Cup championship hopes came ‘unplugged’ last week at Martinsville,” Hamlin said. “At Texas, we didn’t have electrical issues, but after finishing 20th, there was an ‘outage’—I’m further ‘out’ of the championship picture.”
5. Kyle Busch: Busch finished third at Texas, backing up his runner-up finish at Martinsville on October 27th. It was his fifth top 5 of the Chase, and tenth of the year.
“Just once,” Busch said, “I’d like to be dangerous in a ‘Chase’ that doesn’t involve a policeman.”
6. Kasey Kahne: Kahne finished well out of contention at Texas, finishing 25th, one lap off the lead. He is now fourth in the point standings, 29 out of first.
“It’s come down to a battle between Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski,” Kahne said. “I’m sure Keselowski doesn’t mind hearing, ‘And then there were two.’ But I think he’d much rather hear, ‘And then there was ‘2.’”
7. Jeff Gordon: Gordon finished 14th in the AAA Texas 500, and is now sixth in the point standings, 54 out of first.
“Brad Keselowski is giving Jimmie Johnson all he can handle,” Gordon said. “You could it’s a ‘handful, and then some.’ You could also say that about Jimmie’s soon-to-be growing Sprint Cup championship haul.”
8. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth led one lap and came home fourth at Texas, posting his 12th top-5 finish of the year. He is eighth in the point standings, 65 out of first.
“I was out of the title hunt early,” Kenseth said, “but don’t tell me I’m not a man of my word. I told Jack Roush I’d ‘be there at the end’ and I will be, because I’ve got two more races with Roush Fenway.”
9. Tony Stewart: Stewart finished fifth in the AAA Texas 500, equaling his best finish of the Chase. He is 71 out of the lead in the point standings.
“We’re mathematically still alive,” Stewart said, “but there’s no chance we’ll win the Cup. And don’t make me say it again. Believe me when I say there will be ‘no repeating.’”
10. Greg Biffle: Biffle finished 10th at Texas, joining Roush Fenway teammate Matt Kenseth, who finished fourth, in the top 10. Biffle is 83 out of first in the point standings.
“I could be the next to ‘go,’” Biffle said. “No, I’m not leaving Roush Fenway; I’m the next driver soon to be mathematically eliminated from Sprint Cup contention.”
HOORAHS AND WAZZUPS: SOME FINAL THOUGHTS ON TEXAS
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[/media-credit]In the waning moments of last Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 we learned that our two championship contenders were very capable of getting aggressive without losing their sense of class. We saw further evidence that the #48 team is in traditional championship mode. We saw two cars hit each other after the Nationwide Series race and then watched a parachute strike a car before the Sprint Cup race. With those thoughts in mind, let’s begin with.
HOORAH. Jimmie Johnson picked up win number five at Texas and his 60th career win. This #48 Hendrick Motorsports #48 team is looking more and more like six time champions. In a period of three weeks Johnson and company has moved from second, seven points down, in the standings to first, two points ahead, to now seven points ahead of championship rival Brad Keselowski. Johnson more than earned the right to wear the Texas sized cowboy hat, and fire those six shooters, in victory lane.
HOORAH. The finish of this race between Johnson and Keselowski was stunning. There was plenty of door to door racing, and at one point even some side swiping, but the action never got out of hand. One driver could have easily taken the other out but they chose not to do that and it showed class under stress.
HOORAH. This race had all the makings of becoming another, annoying, fuel mileage event. Fortunately for the fans, but unfortunate for some of the competitors, three yellow flags within the final 22 laps of the race prevented that and the result was the exciting finish.
HOORAH. After the race, Brad Keselowski came to the Texas victory lane to shake Johnson’s hand and congratulate him. That was a very classy thing to do. Later, during the SPEED Channel’s “NASCAR Victory Lane” program, Kyle Petty wanted to know if Keselowski waited until Johnson put down the celebratory guns before he approached him.
HOORAH. Johnson’s Texas efforts gave Chevrolet their 700th all time NASCAR Sprint Cup win making them the winningest manufacturer in NASCAR history. That win streak dates back to 1955 when NASCAR pioneer Fonty Flock gave the bowtie brigade their first win at a dirt track in Columbia-South Carolina.
HOORAH. Winning team owner Rick Hendrick brought a personal good luck charm to the Texas race. NASCAR Hall of Famer Junior Johnson was team 48’s special guest on their pit box. Hendrick quipped: “we’ll take all of the knowledge we can get.”
WAZZUP. The television ratings for the AAA Texas 500 were, to say to least, disappointing. Reports from the A C Nielsen Company indicated that 3.943 million watched the broadcast on the ESPN Network. That’s a considerable drop from the 2011 figures of 4.726 million. That’s likely because this race really didn’t display very much excitement until the final half hour of the broadcast.
WAZZUP. Prior to the start of the race, Kevin Harvick’s Chevrolet was parked on pit road when it was struck by, of all things, a 20 pound sandbag attached to a parachutist who was flying the Texas flag during the pre race festivities. It seems the parachutist was a little off center from his designated landing spot. The result was the sandbag placed a large dent on the driver’s door of the race car. Richard Childress Racing pulled to car to the garage area and spent a frantic 30 minutes making repairs. This is one of those once in a life time moments we may never see again. It also brings a new definition to the racing term “sandbagging.”
HOORAH. In the aftermath of the Texas race, NASCAR finally eliminated drivers Kevin Harvick and Dale Earnhardt Jr, 11th and 12th in the Chase standings, from championship contention.
WAZZUP. A lengthy mathematical formula used by NASCAR says there is still a numerical chance that a miracle could place one of the remaining ten Chase drivers in the championship profile. NASCAR fans are a little more realistic than that. The NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase for the Championship is a two man race and has been for a month now.
HOORAH. Kevin Harvick put on an excellent performance and won Saturday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Texas. The event marked Harvick’s second series win of the season and 39th career win which places him third on the all time series’ winner’s list.
HOORAH. The Nationwide Series championship took a dramatic turn at Texas. A come from behind effort by Ricky Stenhouse Jr led to a second place finish compared to points leader Elliott Sadler’s 11th place finish. The end result is the two drivers are now tied for first with two races left in the season.
WAZZUP. There was a rather tense moment between drivers Denny Hamlin and Austin Dillon after the Nationwide Series race. The result was an angry Hamlin pinned Dillon’s car up against the frontstretch wall during the post race cool down lap. The angry scene soon moved to pit road where members of both teams lined up to face each other. They actually looked like they were lining up for an old fashioned square dance. The quick arrival of NASCAR officials and national TV cameras quickly deterred the volatile situation. However, as the crew members squared off, I couldn’t help but wonder if any of them were thinking W-W-T-S-D, (What Would Tony Stewart Do)?
HOORAH. Johnny Sauter won the Texas WinStar Casino 350 NASCAR Camping World Series after passing runner up Parker Kligerman with 11 laps to go. The event marked Sauter’s second victory of the season with the first win also coming at Texas last June.
WAZZUP. The final comment of the week involves your’s truly who experienced a very silly moment during Sunday’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Texas. ESPN aired a live radio transmission from Kyle Busch who told his crew chief: “I have too much rotation in the center.” My first immediate thought was: “I wonder if a jock strap would fix this?” Then I imagined a crew member tossing a jock strap through the driver’s window in the midst of a four tire stop. By now I was out of control laughing at the thought of a driver trying to install a jock strap on pit road while trying not to lose a lap. Needless to say all of this happened during a very tedious moment of the race. Fortunately, the race had that exciting finish and I became serious again.
