[media-credit name=”Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images” align=”alignright” width=”252″][/media-credit]Race number eight, of the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase for the Championship, will be held at the Texas Motor Speedway this Sunday. This speedway is well known for exciting racing and fast speed. The winner of this Texas sized race also gets to observe the tradition of wearing a genuine cowboy hat while firing a pair of six shooters into the air.

THE STORY BREAKDOWN.

The main story line behind Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 is, of course, the Chase. Simple math states there are four drivers still in the running for the championship. However, reality states that the two drivers at the top of the standings and the two championship points that separates them is the real story here.

After his win last weekend at Martinsville, Jimmie Johnson emerged as the new points leader in the standings. However Johnson’s lead over his rival Brad Keselowski is not exactly Texas size. There’s only two points between them and any combination of good and bad racing luck involving the two contenders could greatly alter the scope of the title run with only three races left in the season.

Johnson, a four time winner this year with a previous win at Texas, holds all of the strong stats regarding performance levels at this speedway. That’s why he’s heavily favored to win Sunday’s race. Keselowski’s Texas numbers are not very good at all. However, we’ve seen those numbers from other speedways this year and it hasn’t mattered at all. Keselowski is one of the most tenacious drivers in the Sprint Cup and it’s that determination that has led to five race wins and turned this team into a championship contender.

However, there is one area where Keselowski needs to focus on and create some improvements: qualifying. His qualifying efforts have not been very strong as of late and that creates the need for the team to call audibles regarding pit strategy and track position. In the past four races: Martinsville, Kansas, Charlotte and Talladega, the team’s starting positions have been 32nd, 25th, 20th and 22nd.

Mathematically speaking, drivers Clint Bowyer and Kasey Kahne are still contenders in the title profile. Bowyer, a three time racer winner this season, is third in the standings and 26 points from the top. Kahne, who has won twice this year, is ranked fourth and 29 points away. Realistically speaking, those points are going to be extremely difficult, if not indeed impossible, to make up with only three races remaining. To have a legitimate shot at winning the championship, both drivers are going to be dependent upon help, in the form of unexpected bad racing luck, from Johnson and Keselowski.

THE LAS VEGAS BREAKDOWN

So, which driver is going to be standing in victory lane wearing a genuine Texas cowboy hat and firing those pistols? To get an accurate assessment of that question we again turn to the number crunching professionals from the Las Vegas based World Sports Exchange, (WSE).

The WSE’s Texas report begins with drivers Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin rated at 6 to 1 odds. In 18 starts, Johnson has a win at Texas along with eight top five finishes and 13 top ten finishes along with a very impressive average finish ratio, (AFR), of 9.7. This team is currently operating in the same championship mode that earned them five consecutive titles and that’s going to be bad news for the competition.

Hamlin’s championship hopes were killed last weekend at Martinsville where two pit road speeding penalties and a mysterious failure in the car’s electrical system dropped him from third to fifth, at minus 49, in the points standings. At this point it’s all about winning races and developing momentum for 2013. In other words, go for it because he really has nothing to lose anymore. Hamlin will be packing some impressive Texas stats that includes two wins which came after sweeping both races there back in 2010. He also has five top fives, eight top tens and a very healthy 10.3 AFR.

At 8 to 1 odds is the duo of Brad Keselowski and Greg Biffle. Keselowski’s Texas numbers are just plain terrible. In eight starts he hasn’t event logged a top ten finish. In fact, he hasn’t even logged a finish on the lead lap. His AFR is an astronomical 25.2. You know what? Take every one of those numbers and throw them into the round file. They mean nothing at all. There’s been plenty of other races this year where the numbers were equally harsh and the tenacious Keselowski simply drove his way past them. Keselowski, along with crew chief Paul Wolfe and the resources of Roger Penske Racing are also in a championship frame of mind and they will be formidable during the course of the final three races.

Biffle is a two time Texas winner with the second trip to victory lane coming as recently as this past April. He also has seven top fives, ten top tens and a respectable AFR of 16.2. He’s worthy of being considered as a long shot wager.

The WSE has ranked drivers Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth at 9 to 1. Busch is still seeking his first Texas win but does has four top fives, five top tens and a 15.8 AFR. Busch ran a very strong second last Sunday at Martinsville and just might be bringing that momentum with him to Texas.

Matt Kenseth is an excellent wager consideration. He’s a double winner at Texas with 11 top fives, 14 top tens and a series high 8.6 AFR.

At ten to 1 you will find aforementioned championship hopefuls Kasey Kahne and Clint Bowyer. Kahne is a previous winner at Texas with four top fives and five top tens. However, the AFR, at 18.9, is a little on the high side. If Sunday’s race becomes an issue of fuel mileage, and it’s possible, Kahne is very good at conserving gas on a mile and a half speedway.

Bowyer will be seeking his first Texas win on Sunday. He has three top fives and seven top tens there along with a healthy 13.3 AFR. When Bowyer joined Michael Waltrip Racing this year, no one really expected this ride to produce three wins let along making the Chase line up. He’s truly been one of the bright spots of the 2012 season and the team is strong enough to win Sunday’s race.

At 12 to 1 odds are Hendrick Motorsports team mates Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Both could be regarded as long shot wagers. Gordon has a win at Texas along with eight top fives, 11 top tens and a 16.2 AFR.

Earnhardt is also a previous winner in the Lone Star state. He also has a trio of top five finishes, 11 top tens and a 13.9 AFR.

At 15 to 1 is a trio of drivers that also has to be considered as being long shot considerations. Carl Edwards is a three time winner at Texas including sweeping both races there back in 2008. He also has five top fives, seven top tens and a decent 15.0 AFR. Granted, this has been a very frustrating year for a driver that was favored to be a championship contender back in January. The law of averages says this long year for Edwards has got to turn around eventually. It could happen on Sunday.

Also in the 15 to 1 group is reigning champion Tony Stewart whose Chase hopes suddenly took a down turn in recent weeks. Texas is a great place for “smoke” to get back on track. He’s a two time winner there as well as the defending race champion. He also has five top fives and 11 top tens along with a healthy 13.1 AFR.

The third driver, in the 15 to 1 trio, is Michael Waltrip Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. While Truex made making the Chase line up look easy, there is the frustration of still seeking his first win of the season. He’ also seeking a first win at Texas. He only has a single top five finish there along with seven top tens and a 16.1 AFR. That’s not exactly strong numbers, but there’s that strong sense of determination to put his Toyota in a victory lane before the year ends that earns him a long shot consideration.

The WSE’s Texas rankings concludes with Mark Martin, a previous Texas winner with a 13.3 AFR, ranked at 20 to 1 followed by Kevin Harvick, with a 12.7 AFR, listed at 30 to 1. All other drivers, not listed here, are automatically ranked at 8 to 1 odds.

Now for the disclaimer: NASCAR wants us to remind you that these numbers should be viewed for informational and entertainment purposes. They neither encourage nor condone the placing of wagers on their races. However, if you’re thinking about making a Texas sized wager anyway then you may as well have Texas sized information from the professionals at the World Sports Exchange.

THE RACE BREAKDOWN

The AAA Texas 500 is 334 laps/501 miles around the Texas Motor Speedway’s mammoth 1.5 mile quad oval.

The race has 46 entries vying for the 43 starting positions and the winner’s share of the $6.9 million race purse. 11 of those entries are on the go or go home list meaning they are not guaranteed a starting berth in Sunday’s race because they are currently outside of NASCAR’s top 35 in owner’s points. These teams will have to rely on qualifying speeds to earn a starting berth in the race.

The first NASCAR Sprint Cup event was held at Texas in April of 1997 and was won by Jeff Burton. Since that time there has been 23 Cup races there that has sent 16 different winners to victory lane. 17 of those 23 races has been won from starting positions within the top ten. Only one driver, Kasey Kahne back in 2006, has won a Texas race from the pole position. Roush Fenway Racing leads the team wins at Texas with nine. Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports each have three wins there.

The track qualifying record, 196.235 MPH, was set by Brian Vickers back in November of 2006.

The Texas Motor Speedway officially opened in 1997. The track is 58 feet wide. The front stretch measures 2,250 feet while the back stretch is 1,330 feet long. The four turns are steeply banked at 24 degrees. The front stretch, including the dog leg, is only banked at five degrees.

Weather could become an interesting factor during the Texas Motor Speedway weekend. The forecast for the greater Dallas-Fort Worth area calls for clear skies and daytime highs of 87 degrees on Friday. Saturday calls for partly cloudy conditions, temperatures in the low 80’s and a slight, 20%, chance of thunder showers. However, it’s Sunday’s forecast that may wrinkle the brows of crew chiefs. There’s also a 20% chance of rain that day with daytime highs falling to the low 70’s. That drop could impact track temperature which in turn could hamper the car’s handling capabilities during the early portion of the race. By the way, in the event of rain, the speedway has a fleet of six jet dryers which can dry the track in approximately two hours.

The AAA Texas 500 will be broadcast live by the ESPN Network with the pre race show beginning at 2 pm eastern time. Race replays will be Monday morning, at 12 am eastern, on ESPN2 and on Wednesday, November 7th, at 12 pm eastern on SPEED.

[media-credit name=”Brad Keppel” align=”alignright” width=”225″][/media-credit]How could there not be some form of mayhem at the Martinsville Speedway last Sunday? The fact that the green flag fell on 43 cars lined up on a half mile track, shaped like a paper clip, alone said strap in and hang on tight. When the checkers fell on lap 500, it was fairly evident why a five time champion was looking like a six pack. His season long rival for the championship scored an impressive comeback run to at least keep the standings close. Unfortunately,their season long rival watched his title hopes evaporate with the failure of a petty cash car part. When the Tums Fast Relief 500 was concluded, one driver opened a bottle of champagne while many other opened a bottle of Tums. With those thoughts in mind, let’s begin with:

HOORAH. Jimmie Johnson, and his #48 Hendrick Motorsports team, once again showed us why they’re championship contenders with their eye on that coveted sixth title. Johnson led a race high 193 laps of the Tums Fast Relief 500 and scored his fourth win of the season and a record tying 7th win at Martinsville. He started the weekend second in the championship standings, seven points behind leader Brad Keselowski. He finished the weekend emerging as the new points leader with a two point advantage over his championship rival.

WAZZUP. On Lap 440, Race leader Jimmie Johnson was attempting to pass Juan Pablo Montoya in an effort to lap him. At the time Johnson’s team mate, Jeff Gordon, was in second and charging hard in an effort to claim the race lead. When Johnson realized that passing Montoya was taking too long, he tapped his rear bumper two times. Montoya’s car spun around and came perilously close to hitting Johnson. It’s very rare that you see Johnson lose his patience during any Sprint Cup race and he was lucky that he was able to drive by the spinning Montoya without getting collected into the wreck. Getting involved in that wreck would have been devastating to Johnson’s title run and could have even handed the championship to Keselowski on a silver platter.

WAZZUP. Brad Keselowski’s qualifying run at Martinsville netted him a 32nd starting berth. Qualifying has been a gray area for this team as of late and it’s a situation that needs to be addressed and rectified very quickly with only three races left in the Chase.

HOORAH. Through some determined driving, Keselowski worked his way to the top ten and was on his way to becoming a major player in the outcome of the race.

WAZZUP. With 25 laps left in the race, a blown engine brought out the caution flag and it was major decision time for the teams regarding pit stops and tire needs. At this point in the race there were 18 cars on the lead lap. Keselowski asked his crew chief, Paul Wolfe, if he would mind if he made the final decison regarding a pit stop. After getting the green light, Keselowski’s call was to stay on the track. He anticipated that the five cars in front of him would come to pit road for at least two tires, while the majority of the cars behind would elect to stay out to gain track position. It was a hero or zero call that didn’t quite work out. 16 cars, of the 18 on the lead lap, came down pit road for tires. Keselowski and Dale Earnhardt Jr, who also didn’t pit, lined up on the front row for the restart with well worn tires, Neither one of them remained there very long.

HOORAH. Again, through determined driving, Keselowski managed to finish sixth and place himself within two points of Johnson. Expect the title run between this pair of drivers, with only three races left in the Chase, to get very exciting.

WAZZUP. Denny Hamlin lives just a few miles down the freeway from the Martinsville facility. That sense of home track advantage, along with four previous wins at the paper clip, got him listed as the pre race favorite to win by nearly everyone you could name. He was also regarded as a major player in the Chase profile. He began the day third in the standings and only 20 points from the top. He finished the day fifth in the standings, 49 points out of first, and will now have to wait to next year to make that coveted run at the NASCAR title he so desperately wants to win.

WAZZUP. Denny Hamlin found himself having to deal with a triple layer of Martinsville Mayhem. The first two incidents involved an unbelievable two consecutive penalties for speeding on pit road which killed his track position. However, this young driver impressed us all by getting up on the steering wheel and racing his back to the front of the field. That effort completely unraveled on lap 392. While racing in third place, Hamlin’s Toyota suddenly lost power and came to a complete stop on the track. After retreating to the garage area, the problem was determined to be a faulty master switch which is used to distribute power to the cars massive electrical harness system. The final result was a devastating 33d place finish. The retail cost of this master switch was later reported to be around $30. The cost of being eliminated as a championship contender is going to be $5 million plus.

HOORAH. Denny Hamlin’s weekend at his home track wasn’t a complete disaster. He did win Saturday’s NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports.

WAZZUP. Hamlin found himself charging from the back of the field during this truck race. He, along with two other drivers, were sent to the rear of the starting grid after, of all things, missing the mandatory driver’s meeting. In this day and age, when NASCAR national touring teams employs the use of large entourages, you would think that at least one person would have looked at their watch and yelled “Denny, driver’s meeting NOW.”

HOORAH. After sitting out two races to recuperate from the effects of dual concussions, Dale Earnhardt Jr returned to the driver’s seat of his #88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet much to the relief of his massive fan club known as the Junior Nation.

WAZZUP. With ten laps remaining in the race, Earnhardt found himself parked against the wall following a crash not of his making. Sam Hornish Jr clipped Carl Edwards who in turn clipped Earnhardt. Prior to the incident, Earnhardt was running a strong race and was frequently in the top five. After the race he said it felt good to be back in the car and then said “I was just pissed off about how we finished that race. That was really ridiculous.”

HOORAH. Aric Almirola brought his Richard Petty Motorsports Ford to a fourth place finish. This young driver has landed himself on the radar of many NASCAR observers largely because of his presence on practice and qualifying charts. The top five finish at Martinsville couldn’t come at a better time for Almirola. His contract with RPM is up this year and now reports say he’s “THIS” close to signing a new deal with King Richard Petty.

HOORAH. Brian Vickers scored his latest top ten finish at Martinsville after concluding his part time schedule with Michael Waltrip Racing. This driver’s future is looking very bright for 2013. It’s already been announced that he will return next year and share the driving duties of MWR’s #55 Toyota with Mark Martin and Michael Waltrip. There also a lot of talk that says Vickers will be running for the NASCAR Nationwide Series championship next year for Joe Gibbs Racing.

HOORAH. Veteran driver Bobby Labonte finished ninth in the final Martinsville standings in his JTG Daughtery Racing Toyota. This was huge for this team who sorely needed a performance like this.

HOORAH. The final accolade goes to the Texas Motor Speedway for those clever television spots promoting their upcoming NASCAR weekend. The short and sweet, 15 second, commercials, using the theme no limit, wild asphalt circus, were very humorous. This is yet another example of how speedway President Eddie Gossage, and his marketing staff, are always willing to think and work outside of the box.