Race No. 2 – 54th Annual Daytona 500 Daytona International Speedway, February 26, 2012

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February 24, 2012

[media-credit name=”daytonainternationalspeedway.com” align=”alignright” width=”288″][/media-credit]Happy Birthday to Me!

This year’s Great American Race happens to fall on my quarter-century milestone, and what a better way to spend my birthday than with some 200 mph high octane pack racing! My living room will be transformed into a pit of NASCAR fans on Sunday afternoon, but could never rival the ‘stadium-seating’ that was brought in during my brother’s collegiate days in the Delta Sigma Phi house at Clarkson University. This was hands-down the coolest Daytona 500 party I was ever able to (and will probably ever) attend, however I am excited for this year’s racing season to formally kick-off on Sunday.

In an effort to expand the sport’s following I’ve decided to share my Daytona 500 this Sunday with some non-NASCAR/non-racing fans. My living room will be full on Sunday of half die hard’s and half newbies; the die hard’s pleading their case on why each of their drivers are the best and cheer for. Nonetheless, it will be exciting to watch the action in my living room and exciting to see the pack duke it out for one of the most prestigious crowns in all of motorsports.

Bud Shootout Recap

Just like each restrictor plate race, last weekend’s Bud Shootout turned out to be a roll of the dice. It’s either feast of famine with these races, and I (just like most fantasy players) ended up on the short end of the stick when the dust settled last Saturday Night.

My Dark Horse pick wasn’t really a Dark Horse because he does have 2 wins at Daytona, but like I said last week, the criteria for entrance to the Bud Shootout doesn’t yield many Dark Horses in general. Jamie Mac found the front quickly last week in the first segment, reaching the point just four laps in. He showed that the No. 1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet would be a contender all night, leading a total of 5 times for 11 of the 75 laps. My misfortune came on the final lap of the Bud Shootout last week when McMurray was collected in a multi-car incident, which sent the No. 24 of Jeff Gordon for a wild ride on his roof, netting McMurray a 16th-place finish when all was said and done.

My Winner Pick last week is the guy that can “see the air” on the Superspeedways (despite the fact that he hasn’t won in 3 years). Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a fan of the way the racing has morphed back to the pack at Daytona, “I like it better. The closing rate is a little fast. Guys will go flying backwards and forwards. I think we made a lot of great improvements don’t get me wrong. I think we have really made a lot of great improvements and I have more of my destiny in my hands in this type of racing.” said Jr. following his Bud Shootout efforts.

Despite being a bit more comfortable behind the wheel on Saturday Night, Dale Jr couldn’t make it through a lap 55 incident that collected his No. 88 National Guard/Diet Mountain Dew Chevrolet. Jr. finished 20th and I finished the weekend looking like a buffoon.

Daytona 500 Picks

With complete disregard for claiming to know what I am talking about, I’ve decided to make my picks a little bit differently this week…
It is probably not a great idea because of Ford’s complete dominance of Daytona 500 practice and qualifying sessions, but I would like to have a little fun this weekend for my birthday and also bring in some outside help in making my picks.

Because of my rocky start last week, and the complete craps-shoot it is to choose a driver to win a restrictor plate race, I’ve decided to make my picks based off a total random draw. My picks this week will be based off my girlfriend’s random draw of playing cards (0-9), and I will provide historical data and insight as to why that driver stands a chance to take the Checkered Flag on Sunday Afternoon.

So using Price is Right rules, I will have my girlfriend Casey select four cards at random, and the closest driver (by car number) to the cards selected (without going over of course) will be the drivers I will pick this week for Matty’s Picks.

Here’s a photo of the draw:

[media-credit id=24 align=”aligncenter” width=”169″][/media-credit]

Dark Horse Pick

Via random draw (and a pre-determined list of possible Dark Horses and Winners), Casey selected the 10 of Spades (0) and the 6 of Diamonds. So on the nose for the Dark Horse this week is a Roush Fenway Racing driver that everyone can agree on as a Dark Horse, Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Not much Sprint Cup history here for my Dark Horse pick, as Stenhouse will make just his second start in the Sprint Cup series on Sunday, but based off his practice speeds, it looks like Casey didn’t do too bad picking my Dark Horse this week.

Last year’s NASCAR Nationwide Series Champion didn’t stretch his points lead when it came to the three races on Superspeedways in 2011, (8th at Daytona in February, 38th at Talladega in April, and 28th back at Daytona in July), but his practice speeds for this year’s Daytona 500 have been nothing to frown at. He was 12th quick in the first practice session, 14th in the second, his highest mark on the leaderboard came in the third practice session, and his most recent efforts landed him seventh in the sixth session earlier today.

I’m not emptying my bank account on Stenhouse for Sunday’s race, but with his Roush-Fenway FR9 Ford Fusion looking strong in practice, I will not count him out just yet.

Winner Pick

Casey selected the Ace of Clubs and the Deuce of Spades when it came down to my winner pick, and via Price Is Right rules, (with no driver in the No. 12 car) this would bring us to the No.13 of Casey Mears. I’m not sure that Mears is shown on anyone’s list of ‘Winner Picks’, so I will bypass that pick and head for the No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet of Tony Stewart.

Now how can I be mad at the random draw of the No. 14 car this week? Coming off a second-place (closest finish of the Bud Shootout by the way) in last Saturday’s race at Daytona, and a win in the first of the two Dual races Thursday, what is there not to like? Yes, I know he’s not in an FR9, but really, what is there not to like about this pick?

Smoke will be making his 14th start in the Great American Race on Sunday, a race that has evaded him 13 times before. Despite being winless in the big dance, Smoke has tallied an impressive 16 victories at the World Center of Racing including:
3 – Sprint Cup wins in the July race
3 – Bud Shootout Wins
2 – Gatorade Dual Wins
2 – International Race of Champions (IROC) Wins
6 – NASCAR Nationwide Series Wins

This Stewart-Haas racing team is so confident in their chances that after his win on Thursday, Stewart came across the radio and said “Keep it clean, please“. Spotter Bob Jeffrey added “Don’t put anything on our race car. That’s going to be the Daytona 500 winner.”

Seriously, what’s not to like about this? He’s starting third on Sunday and has a race record that rivals anyone in history…

That’s it for this week. I’d like to thank Casey for her help with my picks this week and until next time, you stay classy NASCAR NATION!

Lessons Learned in the Two Duels

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SM Staff

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February 24, 2012

Field_DuelPrac_Yeazell — Photo Credit: David Yeazell

[media-credit name=”David Yeazell” align=”alignright” width=”281″][/media-credit]The two Gatorade Duels are over. The 150-mile qualifying races saw the field go back to pack racing, the kind of racing preferred by the fans, and little “two car tango.” In fact, the drivers couldn’t do much pushing because their cars overheated. Elliott Sadler had overheating problems during his race and Jimmie Johnson was spewing water while pushing Greg baffle. In the end, NASCAR had it all figured out, and accomplished what they set out to do. We did, however, learn some things.

First, the Fords are fast. Doug Yates, who supplies all the engines for Ford stockers, seems to have come up with the most horsepower at least at this restrictor plate track. But the car with the horsepower doesn’t always win, as we saw in the first duel. Marcos Ambrose and Carl Edwards should have had the brute force to win this one, but it was Hendrick powered Chevrolets that won and finished second. In fact, the Hendrick power plants put seven cars in the top 10 in both races and Ford had only five. Earnhardt-Childress put four cars in the top 10 and Toyota Racing Development only two, both in the second duel. Dodge scored only two top 10’s. And yet Kyle Busch showed power in winning the Budweiser Shootout on Saturday night. To sum it up, don’t give the race to Ford drivers just yet. It’s anyone’s game.

Second, there are going to be a lot of cautions on Sunday. With a smaller spoiler, downforce will be lacking and no human is skilled enough to bump draft and push another car without making the occasional mistake. We saw it in the Shootout and we saw it today. And remember, many drivers just did not go all out today while they will in the latter stages of the Great American Race.

Third, Tony Stewart just seems to have the knack for getting to the front and staying there at Daytona, so I look for him to be a factor and maybe even is your winner on Sunday. He’d better pay attention to Marcos Ambrose, though. Ambrose has learned the formula at these restrictor plate tracks. After finishing a strong third in the Shootout, he also finished third in the first qualifying race today. The same could be said for Kevin Harvick, Regan Smith, and Jimmie Johnson. And that’s leaving out Polesitter Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, who dominated the second duel, and Dale Earnhardt, Jr., who is always good here. Want the truth? It’s anyone’s game.

Finally, the overheating problem will continue unless NASCAR makes changes in the cooling systems before the race. I’ve been told that this is not likely to happen, but who knows? It is supposed to be a lot cooler on Sunday in Florida, but we may see a lot of overheated cars try to push the limit. The dominant theory is that in the last two laps, the drivers don’t worry about whether their engine gets hot and spews water. That could result in disaster if an overzealous driver goes too far and blows up at the front of the pack at 200 mph. Let’s hope “cooler heads” prevail.

As I write this, we are only 61 hours away from the green flag of the Daytona 500. It was a long off-season, but from what we’ve seen, the competition is better and all looks well for a very enjoyable Daytona 500. My only hope is that we can go at least this race without the words points and Chase being used in a sentence by the voices and talking heads on the race broadcasts. After all, this is the Great American Race. The winner should not be known as the guy who is leading the points, but rather the guy who won the race.

NOTES FROM THE NASCAR NATION: THE DAYTONA 500

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SM Staff

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February 24, 2012

[media-credit id=22 align=”alignright” width=”225″][/media-credit]NASCAR officially kicks off its 2012 racing season this Sunday with the 54th annual running of its great American race: the Daytona 500. From what we’ve observed from Daytona preliminary events, such as the Budweiser Shootout and both Gatorade Duels, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Sunday’s 500 is going to be filled with massive excitement and quickly become a true test of man and machine.

THE STORY BREAKDOWN

Two car tandem racing is virtually over in NASCAR Sprint Cup racing. This aspect to the restrictor plate events, at Daytona and Talladega, hit huge last year and was not well received by the fans. The truth be known, NASCAR officials weren’t that thrilled about it either.

To counteract the concept, NASCAR issued a series of rule changes during the preseason that included reductions in the grill openings on the front of the cars, a reduction in the the engine’s cooling systems and a reduction in the size of the rear spoilers. They also eliminated the multi-channel radio systems the drivers used last season to set up their two car tandems. At no point did NASCAR actually forbid the use of tandem racing. They just used the rule changes to make it unfeasible. Too much time spent in a two by two grouping could lead to engine overheating issues. Drivers discovered that anything past three laps caused a significant rise in the water temperature gauge.

However, that doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t see the two car tandem on Sunday. Don’t be too surprised if you see it during the final three laps of the race when it’s race to the checkers time.

Changes to size of the rear spoiler has created some changes in the handling package of the cars. Drivers are going to have to be very careful with bump drafting especially when making contact with the left rear side of the car in front of them. The possibility of launching a multi-car, “big one”, crash is very present. We certainly saw evidence of that during last Saturday night’s Budweiser Shootout as well as Thursday’s Gatorade Duels.

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We will all be watching the progress of Danica Patrick during the Daytona 500 as she makes her official NASCAR Sprint Cup debut. She has been “THE” story all during Speedweeks over the past few weeks. Last year Patrick ran a limited NASCAR Nationwide Series schedule while completing the final year of her contract with her Indy Car team. This year she’s racing the full time Nationwide schedule plus ten Sprint Cup events.

It’s been very obvious that her transition from Indy Car to NASCAR has been handled with a great deal of intelligence and patience. The progress of that effort is definitely beginning to show. On Sunday she will join Janet Guthrie and Shawna Robinson to become only the third female driver in Daytona 500 history to start the Great American Race. A top ten finish on Sunday will earn her the record of being the highest female finisher in the 500. Guthrie currently holds the record with an 11th place finish in 1980. From what we’ve seen so far this year, a top ten for Danica Patrick is actually very possible.

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Will we see another Cinderella story, similar to Trevor Bayne’s stunning win last year, at the conclusion of the Daytona 500 on Sunday? From what was observed during the Shootout and the Duels this week it’s extremely possible. NASCAR’s restrictor plate races has a tendency to rewards drivers and teams that we least expected to see in victory lane.

Keep an eye on Kurt Busch and the James Finch owned Phoenix Racing operation. I don’t think anyone would be that surprised if they won this year’s Daytona 500.

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There’s also a couple of emotional angles connected to Sunday’s Daytona 500 that could create a special moment in victory lane. Mega team owner Rick Hendrick has 199 NASCAR Sprint Cup wins. It’s been reported that, for quite some time, Hendrick has been bringing a large bag of racing caps, commemorating his 200th win, to the race tracks just waiting for the opportunity to pass them out in victory lane.

It also seems that Hendrick’s four drivers are involved in some sort of in house competition to give the boss that special victory. This is especially true of Dale Earnhardt Jr because another Daytona 500 win on Sunday would also eradicate that pesky 129 winless streak that everyone keeps asking him about. You’ve also got to believe that team newcomer Kasey Kahne would love to start his new job off right by giving Mr H that 200th win.

Meanwhile in Ford land, Jack Roush is celebrating his 25th season as a NASCAR Sprint Cup team owner. You can bet that anyone of his four drivers would love to start that anniversary off with a Daytona 500 win and then finish the 25th season by giving their boss another Sprint Cup title.

THE LAS VEGAS BREAKDOWN

With NASCAR restrictor plate racing’s tendency to create surprise endings, one has to believe that there is a large variety of drivers who could possibly win the Daytona 500. To help us sort through the possibilities, we again turn to the professional number crunchers from “The Las Vegas Insider”, (LVI).

Topping the LVI’s Daytona rankings is a quartet of drivers that has to be considered top notch wager considerations. Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kyle Busch are rated at 10 to 1 odds to win the 54th running of the Daytona 500.

Kevin Harvick has proven he can get the job done. He’s a two time winner at the Daytona Speedway with five top finishes and nine top tens. He also has a healthy average finish ratio, (AFR), of 15.6. Also, his Daytona driver rating of 86.3 ranks him tenth among his Sprint Cup peers.

Not even landing a race car on its roof, during last Saturday night’s Budweiser Shootout, is going to deter four time NASCAR champion Jeff Gordon’s chances for victory this Sunday. The three time winner Daytona 500 winner, and six time speedway winner, also has career stats that includes 12 top fives, 19 top tens, an AFR of 15.5 and a Daytona driver rating of 89.4 which ranks him fourth among Sprint Cup drivers.

Get ready Junior Nation, Sunday could be your favorite driver’s day. There is an aura of increased confidence and determination from Dale Earnhardt Jr these days and it seems to be coming from crew chief Steve Letarte. Earnhardt’s Daytona Speedway numbers are strong and includes two wins, eight top fives, 13 to tens. He also has an AFR of 15,0 along with a Daytona driver rating of 87.1 which places him eighth on the driver list. Sunday could very well be the day he finally returns to victory lane.

Never overlook the presence of Kyle Busch in any Sprint Cup race he enters. He certainly proved that last Saturday night when he stole the Budweiser Shootout during the final 100 feet of the race. He has one win at Daytona along with five top fives, six top tens along with a 17.6 AFR. His Daytona driver rating of 98.7 has him ranked at first on the list.

All by himself, at 12 to 1, is Tony Stewart who is another outstanding wager consideration. “Smoke” already has enjoyed an outstanding week at Daytona with a second place in the Budweiser Shootout and a win in last Thursday’s first Gatorade Duel qualifying race. When you add up all of Stewart’s Daytona wins, from all of NASCAR’s racing divisions, he’s visited victory lane there 16 times. None of them has been for winning the Daytona 500. However he does have an excellent Daytona driver rating of 98.2 which ranks him second among his peers. If you believe in the power of numerology, Sunday will be Stewart’s 14th Daytona 500 start in car #14.

At 15 to 1 are five noteworthy drivers featuring Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray and A J Allmendinger. Johnson is a former 500 winner with six top fives, nine top tens and an AFR of 17.0. He’s also ranked 6th in the series’ driver ratings with a healthy 87.5.

Believe it or not, Carl Edwards is still seeking his first victory of any kind at Daytona. But he does have five top five finishes along with six top tens and a 17.9 AFR. But this is one those high powered Roush Fenway Fords that has been so strong during Daytona Speedweeks. Edwards proved that point by taking the pole position last Sunday. He’s definitely wager worthy.

Kasey Kahne’s numbers at Daytona aren’t that strong but, bear in mind, that he is now sitting in the best ride he’s ever had in his career. As the new member of Hendrick Motorsports, Kahne will be starting the new racing season with high expectations. No one should be surprised if he wins on Sunday.

Jamie McMurray, and his Earnhardt Ganassi Racing Chevrolet, has been very impressive during Speedweeks. The car has displayed a great deal of speed and good handling. He’s a two time winner at Daytona and appears that the obstacles that plagued this team all through last year may be gone. McMurray is a good long shot wager consideration.

A J Allmendinger will be making his debut for Roger Penske Racing in a points paying event. His Dodge has showed some strength during Speedweeks. He’s also a long shot option worthy of a second look.

Looking now at the LVI’s middle tier rankings, the trio of Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Clint Bowyer will be seeking their first Daytona win on Sunday and are ranked at 20 to 1.

But it’s the LVI’s 25 to 1 group that’s really interesting. Matt Kenseth, a Daytona 500 winner and the winner of a Gatorade Duel last Thursday is in this group. So is Roush Fenway Ford driver Greg Biffle who also has a win at Daytona and will be starting Sunday’s race on the outside pole. Kurt Busch is also in the 25 to 1 group and his Phoenix Racing Racing Chevrolet, obtained from Hendrick Motorsports, has looked very strong during Speedweeks. All three of these drivers are solid long shots. Joey Logano is also ranked at 25 to 1.

All by himself, at 30 to 1, is Jeff Burton. Both this driver and his Richard Childress Racing team seems to be rejuvenated for the new season. At 35 to 1 you will find Ryan Newman, a former Daytona 500 winner, and Juan Pablo Montoya. The 40 to 1 group is led by Michael Waltrip Racing drivers Martin Truex Jr and Mark Martin along with Richard Childress Racing’s Paul Menard.

In the LVI’s lower tiers you will find Danica Patrick ranked at 60 to 1 for her NASCAR Sprint Cup debut. David Ragan, a former Daytona winner, Reagan Smith, Trevor Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse Jr are ranked at 75 to 1. From this group, Bayne and Smith could possibly turn into lucrative long shots. Closing the LVI Daytona rankings, at 100 to 1, are Bobby Labonte, David Gilliland and Dave Blaney. All others, not listed, are automatically rated at 30 to 1.

Now for the disclaimer: NASCAR wants to remind you that these posted numbers should be viewed as informational and entertainment data. They neither encourage, nor condone, the placing of wagers on their races.

The trouble with betting on the Daytona 500 is the fact that NASCAR restrictor plate racing is so very unpredictable and can easily send the completely unexpected to victory lane. Trevor Bayne and David Ragan scoring their first ever Cup wins at Daytona last year is a perfect example. One possible approach is to spilt your wager budget between the strong contenders and the serious long shots.

Or you could do something really nice and donate your wager budget to the Chad Knaus, “Oops I Did It Again” punishment fund. (Come on, you knew I was going there sooner or later.)

THE RACE BREAKDOWN

The 54th running of the Daytona 500 is 200 laps/500 miles around the Daytona International Speedway’s mammoth 2.5 mile tri-oval with its 31 degrees of banking in the turns. It’s anticipated that the 168,000 seats, and the infield camping area, are going to be completely filled.

The Daytona 500 is also one of the most lucrative motorsports events in the world. The purse for the 2012 race is a record setting $19,142,601 with the winner’s share being at least $1,431,325. There’s also a $200,000 bonus to the driver who leads lap 100, the halfway point of the race.

The first ever Daytona 500 was held in 1959 and was won by Lee Petty. Since that time 518 drivers have competed in at least one Daytona 500 while 306 drives have competed in at least two or more Great American Races. There has been 35 different winners of the Daytona 500. “King” Richard Petty leads the Daytona 500 win list with a total of seven victories. Jeff Gordon leads the modern day active drivers with six Daytona wins, including three Daytona 500’s. The Wood Brothers, the 2011 defending Daytona 500 champions, holds the Daytona record for team wins at 15.

The 54th Annual Daytona 500 will be broadcast live by Fox Sports with the pre race show beginning at 12 pm eastern time. The re air will be presented on Wednesday, February 29th, on SPEED beginning at 12 pm et.

Danica Patrick wins the DRIVE4COPD 300 Pole Following Duel Crash

By

SM Staff

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February 24, 2012

[media-credit name=”CIA Stock Photography, Inc.” align=”alignright” width=”229″][/media-credit]Following a nasty crash yesterday during the Gatorade Duels, Danica Patrick came back in full force and won the pole for the Nationwide Series DRIVE4COPD 300, which is set to be run on Saturday afternoon.

With a speed of 182.741 mph, this marked the first pole of her career in 26 starts. She also became the first women to win a pole in the Nationwide Series since 1994 when Shawna Robinson won the pole at Atlanta.

For the 29-year-old, she wanted to win the pole not only for herself, but for crew chief Tony Eury Jr.

“Tony builds really good cars and the guys that helped him do that, did a really good job,” she says “I’m really thrilled for Tony Jr.; this is something that he wanted. So for me to push the pedal and give that to him, it feels really good.”

This marks the first Daytona Nationwide series pole for Eury Jr., despite the number of wins at Daytona with his cousin Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Just yesterday, Patrick found himself at the tail end of a bad deal as she hit the inside wall hard after contact from Aric Almirola on the last lap. For most of the event, Patrick had done well, keeping herself in the thick of the action, running as high as sixth.

“I got valuable practice time,” she says. “But it is never a good feeling for me to not be able to drive the car back to the pits and something about me feels guilty when I see that Go Daddy is all broken up along the side.”

The wrecks are a part of the learning curve, no doubt, and Patrick says that she does have lots to learn. After qualifying, she was continuing to pick up tips from her team owner, Earnhardt Jr., by talking with him about side drafting and running the inside line versus the outside line.

Patrick has been working hard at learning everything that she can, which has shown on track. Last year near the end of the year, she was capable of consistently running in the top 15. Elliott Sadler says with what she’s learned, she has become the most improved driver in all of the three series.

“That’s appreciated and I have worked really hard and I’m lucky I drive for a good team that has good resources,” she says. “Tony Jr. is a really, good accomplished crew chief. On the Cup side, we haven’t seen a lot of the great people around me there too, and some really good experience teammates.

“That’s a nice pat on the back; I appreciated that. I still recognize that I have a lot to learn, but I’ve been able to do this in a nice way. I’ve had the backing from the beginning from Go Daddy and it’s been nice because instead of having to go out and show what I’m made of every week, got the most amount spots possible and be desperate. I’ve never had to feel like that. I’ve been able to sit back and observe, not step outside of my comfort zone, because I’ve had a plan since the beginning and so few drivers get that ability to plan long-term and have someone that’s there for them who will follow them wherever they go.”

In looking back to her first ever NASCAR start, Patrick recognizes how far she has come, though.

“I’m pleased with some of the stuff that’s gotten better over the year – I can think of the first race here where I was struggling to keep up,” she says. “Then now you can drop the green flag in a Cup race and I’m just hanging out. I know the rules are different, but the level of comfort and proximity of cars next to each other and front and back, and obviously has been improved.”

With her winning the pole for the Nationwide race, it show strength in the learning curve, but also marks a confidence boost.

“Its always good to have something that brings your spirits up,” she says. “I think when you’re fast like this, it also gives someone an incentive to work with you, if I’m in a position without a teammate or without someone who has talked it over with me. Hopefully it will open up some deals.”

Patrick says that beyond making her feel better, it also gives her some respect and credibility as people will want to work with her. However, she knows that her success tomorrow will all depend on how well she runs.

“It’s going to come down to bump drafting, and being good at that,” she says. “Good at swapping, good at keeping the engine cool, good at keeping in a pack, good at keeping connected, good at strategy so when you pit, you pit with your partner and you don’t get left alone at any point. There’s a lot of stuff that’s going to happen during the race that we’re going to have to manage, so it doesn’t change our strategy. But we do get the first pit box if we want it, which I like that. Not having to wander through a sea of signs looking for my pit box.”