Handicapping the Chase – Johnson Again
It’s not easy to handicap the 2011 Chase field. In fact, my opinion is that Jimmie Johnson will win his sixth consecutive championship. That isn’t going to be popular with most of you, but it’s so obvious that it jumps out to me. There is no one to challenge the team of Jimmie and Chad. Each and every challenger has weaknesses that the Lowe’s team does not have. It’s almost that the Chase was designed around the No. 48 team. You might say they’ve figured it out and no one else has, yet there is hope for someone else to take the crown, no matter how slim that hope is.
[media-credit name=”Brad Keppel” align=”alignright” width=”225″]
[/media-credit]Let me preface this by saying that I don’t care who wins the championship. In fact, it has never been important to me. Individual races and the number of wins have always been the measuring point for a successful season. Unlike football, baseball, and basketball, NASCAR depends on individual races. The stick and ball sports look toward the Super Bowl, the World Series and the NBA Finals. Unfortunately, and for some reason, NASCAR headed in that direction in 2004. The result has been an emphasis on the championship instead of individual races. It took me several weeks to realize that David Pearson won the 1969 Championship and even when I found out, I didn’t really care. NASCAR created this championship frenzy to emulate the stick and ball sports. I find that hideous. Forever, the championship, whether it was the individual track championship or the Cup championship was an afterthought to who did what on what day. The championship was a mere bonus at the end of the season. Then came the trips to New York and now Las Vegas. Win Daytona? No big deal. Win Indy? No big deal, but the championship? Big deal.
NASCAR has tried to change this with rules. Seeing that the Chase format was somewhat flawed, they added two more drivers (many think this is so that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. could somehow be included) and tried to give a bonus to winning, but the truth remains, this Chase was made for Jimmie and Chad. Only one short track, interestingly one that Johnson dominates, and the rest, with the exception of Dover, that are very similar. Sure, you have Talladega and Martinsville, but why is Daytona, Darlington, and Bristol not included, at least for the historical significance if not the variety of tracks?
All that said, here what I think about the Chase contestants:
1. Kyle Busch – He has never shown that he can compete at the highest level when things are on the line. Young as he is, he will have other chances, but the engine failures will make him less than a favorite. He may prove me wrong, but the No, 1 position gives us no reason to believe that he will not see the gremlins that have haunted him all year.
2. Kevin Harvick –The bad summer was swept away from the minds of many by his win at Richmond. The struggles may continue in a bad year for Richard Childress Racing.
3. Jeff Gordon – Despite his success in winning races this year and strong runs, the record shows that his team falters at the end of races. Gordon is a favorite, as a legend should but, I just don’t think it’s going to happen for him. I may eat my words and crow tastes pretty good.
4. Matt Kenseth –The creator of the Chase will do what he always does—run solidly and contend, but is this team a championship team? As usual, he shined during the early season and ran strong throughout the series, but can he maintain the consistency and win a race or two in the final ten races.
5. Carl Edwards –After a torrid start, Edwards became the guy who either finished second or had problems. One wins tells me that there is work to be done. Can this team rise to the occasion? After his contract problems were solved, he regressed in performance. Can this team rise to the occasion?
6. Jimmie Johnson – Johnson flew below the radar most of the season. Like Edwards, he won only one race, but the tracks left are Johnson’s type of tracks. If he wins a couple of races, it’s game over. If he continues to battle with Kurt Busch, it may put him and Chad off their game, but I doubt that. I see no reason why they can’t repeat for a sixth time.
7. Kurt Busch – See No, 6 above. The Penske Dodges have been potent, and the former champ is a worthy adversary. But will the feud be a major distraction?
8. Ryan Newman – With one win, Newman comes into the Chase as an afterthought. I see no reason he can win without multiple wins, and I don’t see that in the cards.
9. Tony Stewart – A horrible season continues. The former champ got in because so many didn’t do well this season. I would say no chance, but you never know. He has to win and win some more.
10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – NASCAR got their wish for Junior to be included in the Chase. NASCAR’s Most Popular Drive may keep many interested in the final ten races, but with no wins and lackluster performances, I can’t see a way for him to win this championship. Prove me wrong, Dale.
11. Brad Keselowski – A hot finish to the regular season, with some wins got Keselowski into the championship drive, but truth be known, it was the perfect storm. If he can continue the last few weeks, he can be a contender, but for some reason, I don’t see that as coming true.
12. Denny Hamlin – After a runner-up season in 2010, Hamlin made it into the Chase in last place. With the engine problems outlined above and his best tracks behind him, I expect Hamlin to be less than a worthy adversary.
The way I look at it, it looks like Old Five Time will become Old Six Time. The regular season was just a tune-up for the Chase. As it has been for the last five, or six years.
ARCA: Max Gresham and Mason Mingus and Ready For Salem Speedway
Max Gresham is ready to get back behind the wheel of an ARCA Racing presented by Menards series car as he will team up with Venturini Motorsports for the Ford Dealers Fall Classic at Salem Speedway in Indiana.
“I’m excited to go back to Salem,” Gresham said. “It’s been a good track for me. I won a pole at Salem in my first ever ARCA race and we ran really well this past spring in the No. 25 Venturini car. I like going back to tracks where I have run well in the past. It’s great when you go with a team like Venturini Motorsports because they always run well there too. My Venturini Motorsports teammate, Brennan Poole, won the spring race at Salem. Hopefully, we can go in and get my first win in ARCA this season with them this weekend.”
Gresham hasn’t found the winning success like his teammate Poole, however he has come close. In Jne, Gresham finished second at Michigan International Speedway and last month, finished sixth at Pocono Raceway after winning the pole.
“I for sure love the high banks and high-speed race tracks,” Gresham added. “They tend to suit my style and things seem to work out for me at them. It’s a lot of fun to throw an ARCA car right up against the wall at a place like Salem. It’s definitely a challenge, but when the race is over, you think ‘wow, that’s a lot of fun.’ Salem is a challenge, but it’s really enjoyable.”
Despite the lack of ARCA starts this year, Gresham has been busy as he drove the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota to a fifth-place finish in the NASCAR K&N Pro Series East event at Greenville-Pickens Speedway last weekend, holds a 65-point lead in that division’s championship standings.
With no pressures of having to work about the points, Gresham only has one thought on his mind.
“The expectations are the same as they always are,” Gresham said. “Billy Venturini and his guys are going up there to win. That’s what they do and that’s what I am going to try to do for them.”
Meanwhile for Mason Mingus and Win-Tron Racing, a good run is the key for their effort as Mingus will be making his first ever ARCA Racing Series start.
“I have heard a lot about Win-Tron racing and seen that they have had a very good track record in the past,” he said. “That helps me to have confidence that I will be able to adjust very quickly because they will have a good car when they show up to the track. I’m just thankful for the opportunity.”
This 16-year-old does come with experience as he has raced in the Champion Racing Association Super Late Model Series and is a former winner at Salem Speedway in the Ken-Ten Series in June 2010.
Salem Speedway definitely ranks near the top of the list of my favorite tracks to race at,” the Brentwood, Tennessee native said. “I have only been able to race at Salem one time, but I had a lot of success there. It is a very tough track to race on but as long as we are able to save tires and have a consistent car it is a lot of fun.
“Being that this will be my first time in an ARCA car it will be a big learning experience. I intend to be patient throughout the race and take opportunities when they come. Although it will be a different experience than driving a late model I will do everything I can to be competitive enough to win the race.”
Win-Tron Racing this year has ran with a mixture of drivers as Mingus marks the fifth different driver to drive the No. 32 Champion Brands Toyota Camry this year.
“It’s always exciting to bring a driver to ARCA for the first time,” Win-Tron Racing co-car owner Nate Thiesse said. “Mason comes to our team on the heels of a healthy season in the CRA Super Late Model Series and an extensive resume that resonates back years. Obviously, his experience at Salem will play into our advantage initially as far as him getting up to speed, but he’s up against some competition he’s never had to face before and a car he is unfamiliar with.
“Despite those scenarios, there is potential for him to earn a lot of respect and potentially gleam in the limelight. While we know that our team is capable of winning races, we haven’t set our expectations that high for Mason. We just want him to learn, have fun and hopefully we’ll leave somewhere inside the top-10. If we can do that, we’ll consider the weekend a great success.”
While they are just looking to have a good solid night, a win is something that is very well possible.
“We’re not saying that Mason can’t win the race on Saturday night,” Thiesse added. “We just don’t want to put that kind of pressure on him in his first race. Salem though is a track where strange things have happened and a place that has bred first-time winners, so anything is possible. The biggest goal for this weekend is for him to be safe, have fun and bring the car home in one piece.”
The Kentuckiana Ford Dealers ARCA Fall Classic by Federated Car Care (200 laps / 111 miles) is the 17th of 19 events on the 2011 ARCA Racing Series presented by Menards schedule. Practice begins Saturday, September 17 with an hour and a half practice session planned from 1:05 p.m. – 2:35 p.m. Menards Pole by Ansell qualifying is slated to begin at 4:00 p.m.
The field will take the green flag later in the evening at approximately 7:15 p.m. The event will not be televised but race coverage including live timing and scoring throughout the 1,329th race for the ARCA Racing Series presented by Menards since it was formed in 1953 will be available through the ARCA Racing Network (ARN) online at arcaracing.com presented by ARCANation.com. All times are local.
