Jimmie Johnson is in a very familiar spot. He once again is in contention for another championship and if he can pull off the feat it will be his sixth title in the past 8 years, an incredible feat under any points system. As we come to the Dover International Speedway, Johnson has to be smiling. Why? This is by far Johnson’s best track. He is tied with the King Richard Petty in all-time wins here with 7, but Johnson is also in a very unfamiliar scenario at the same time.
For those of us that have watched Johnson since his debut at the Daytona 500 back in 2002, I have never seen Johnson in such a tight spot since his first championship in 2006. For the first time, Johnson is not benefiting entirely from the points reset. What does this remind you of? Does the 2007 season ring a bell? Jeff Gordon dominated the first 26 races, but he did run into some trouble on his way to the Chase cut-off with spins at Michigan and the Auto Club Speedway, respectively. There is no doubt that Johnson got the raw end of the stick here, but this is the system we have and that is what these drivers will have to deal with until something changes. I picked Jimmie Johnson this weekend because it’s obvious. This is his track, but he isn’t necessarily the favorite.
Johnson is a favorite don’t get me wrong, but the scenarios that play out today in NASCAR compared to lets say 2004 are far different. With the type of fuel that is used in NASCAR today and how last years event played out, I see this coming down to a fuel race. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I haven’t really seen Jimmie Johnson perform too well in fuel mileage situations. Whenever we mention the 48 in a fuel mileage race we tend to see the 48 run out of fuel. Last year was certainly an exception. Jimmie Johnson simply had to accept the fact that he was not going to win the race and they needed the points, so they had to settle for fuel conservation mode and was able to hold on for a 4th place finish, despite leading 43 laps. Can you imagine if the 48 tried to push the tank too far? Not only would Brad Keselowski have won the race, but that would have been devastating to the rest of the remaining races. Yeah, Johnson would have lost either way, but at this point in the year last year it was a really tough call, but they made the right one.
Matt Kenseth is the Jimmie Johnson of 2007. He hasn’t necessarily been the top dog because of inconsistency throughout the year, but winning races and performing in the final 10 is the key to winning the title. Kenseth is red hot at the right time of the year and the 48 team needs to pick up the pace. Johnson is obviously still in contention to win this title. He is not done by any means, but if he continues to finish behind drivers like Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch, then the 48 will have to rely on a big wreck at Talladega that takes out a majority of the field to make any gains.
Another thing to watch out for at Dover is engine failures. Keep in mind, Kenseth has a pair of wins here, but he did blow his engine earlier the season which relegated him to a 40th place result. JGR has had engine difficulties for the past couple of seasons. Will Kenseth’s engine last? Can Kyle Busch capitalize on his 4th place finish earlier this season? Watch out for the 18. It was strategy that won the race for Tony Stewart back in June. Busch led 150 of the 400 laps, but was unable to close the show. With that being said, I think Jimmie Johnson gets his 8th Dover win this weekend still.
Who are you guys picking and why? Let me know and follow me @RyanPrakOHara on Twitter!
