With the turning of the calendar it brings a New Year and NASCAR season. Preseason testing at Daytona is just weeks away, meaning every team has begun to tact up a list of goals they’d like to have accomplished by Homestead in November.
The end of the preseason also means a new list of predictions has to be made. Everything from champions to surprises and attitudes are up for grabs. But with how crazy and unpredictable the 2011 season ending up being, 2012 has a lot to live up to.
Here are a few preseason predictions that will make it happen.
The 500 Club Will Welcome a New Member
Not since Jeff Gordon in 2005 has the Daytona 500 been won by a driver who has previously won it before. Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray and Trevor Bayne have won the last five races, the win the first for each.
In 2012 that trend will continue. While Daytona and Talladega have always been a crapshoot with any driver able to win, the Daytona 500 is where dreams come true. Kurt Busch is still looking for his first official restrictor plate win and would love to bring his new team, Phoenix Racing, their second career victory in the sports biggest event.
But the spotlight will be on the Stewart-Haas duo of defending Sprint Cup champion Tony Stewart and Danica Patrick. Stewart, who has won everything else there is in NASCAR, is still looking for his first Daytona 500 win. This February he’ll try for the 14th time.
And Patrick, she might just shock the world should she win the event. The 500 will be her first of 10 Cup races she’ll attempt to run this season. When she does, Stewart will field her cars and should the two work as well as they did last July in Daytona during the Nationwide Series event, they’ll be the ones to beat.
[media-credit name=”Brad Keppel” align=”alignright” width=”225″]
[/media-credit]Dale Earnhardt Jr. Will be Dale Earnhardt Jr. Again
Remember when he won six races in one season? When he made the Chase, finished top five in points and looked to be headed toward his first championship? Maybe not since the last few years it’s been the complete opposite.
In 2004 however, Earnhardt Jr. was one of the hottest drivers on the circuit when he won six races and contended every weekend at every type of track. Following his spurt of resurgence in 2011 with new crew chief Steve Letarte things can only get better for the No. 88 National Guard / AMP Energy team.
Will they win six races, probably not. But should they get back to running how they did the first half of 2011 while continuing to improve, Earnhardt Jr. will grace the winners circle a few times in 2012 and be back in the Chase again. After he again sits on the front row of the Daytona 500 for the third straight year.
Experiencing the Championship Hangover
No, not for Tony Stewart but the man he took the 2011 Sprint Cup Series title from, Carl Edwards. Everything went right for Edwards last year, except for one little race that really mattered the most.
He won a race, led the points for majority of the season and looked like and lived up to the expectations of the man to beat. Then Stewart entered the picture once the Chase started and now Edwards falls into the clutches of the curse of second place.
Denny Hamlin experienced it this year after he won eight races in 2010 and lost the championship in the final race of the season. Hamlin won once and finished ninth in points and while it doesn’t sound too bad, Hamlin’s performance was far from standard.
Before Hamlin it was Mark Martin. He won five races in 2009 and came within a Jimmie Johnson of finally winning his first Cup title. A year later no wins and no Chase for Martin who’s struggled since and now heads for Michael Waltrip Racing on a limited schedule.
Ironically before Martin it was Edwards in 2008 who won eight races and finished second to Johnson in the title hunt. Edwards then failed to win in 2009 and finished outside the top 10 in points.
While he has a much stronger team this time around, there’s just something about having your hands on the championship only to have it taken away, that carries over and affects a driver the following season. Look for Edwards to try and keep last year’s disappointment out of mind but to no avail.
A Slice of Humble Pie
Kurt Busch says he wants to get back to having fun in the racecar and work on his image. No better way to do that then focusing on just winning with Phoenix Racing.
Busch has the chance to get back to basics in 2012 should he decide to check the box next to the Nationwide Series and contend for points driving for brother Kyle’s team. He’ll drive a full-year with Phoenix using Hendrick equipment, but the team will not be what he’s used to competing with.
By taking away the pressure of competing for the Cup title, Busch can have fun in the NNS. He’ll always be high strung and competitive, wanting to win races as much as the next driver, but there’s something that tells me trying to do so with Phoenix and KBM could be just what Busch needs to get back in the right mind frame.
I expect to see a different Kurt Busch by the end of 2012. One that will still get upset when things go wrong but not the one that everyone saw in 2011. Who knows, should he take this route he might strengthen his bond with his brother while adding a NNS title to his resume.
Girl Power
Danica Patrick is finally here, well full-time. Following a two-year partial schedule with JR Motorsports the GoDaddy girl is here to stay. She’ll run a full-season with JRM and run a limited schedule with Stewart-Haas Racing.
She finished 26th in points in 2011 after only running 12 races but she had three top 10 finishes and one top five. That was a fourth place at Las Vegas early in the season. So, what to expect in 2012 with a full-year under her belt?
I’m going with a top five points finish. It’s going out on a limb but not all predictions can be played close to the vest. Patrick has continued to show improvement and ability in NASCAR and seems to fit in very well in the Nationwide Series (NNS).
Heading back to tracks for the second and third times will also he of help, along with the continued guidance of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart. She most likely won’t win a race but don’t count her out of being a contender and stealing some headlines this season.
The Dinger Becomes a Winner
There have been a lot of off-season moves the last few weeks but AJ Allmendinger might be the biggest winner. When Kurt Busch announced his departure from Penske leaving the No. 22 open there was speculation about who would be its next driver.
Allmendinger wasn’t even in the picture until the day of the announcement. He goes from Richard Petty Motorsports to Penske and a car that won races and contended for the championship in 2011. This can only lead to big things for Allmendinger, who has always been able to make the most of what he’s got in his brief NASCAR career.
In 2012 that hard work is going to pay off, he should and I expect will be a contender. In fact, look for Allmendinger to finally capture his first career win, maybe even at Dover where he’s been so strong the last few years. And if all goes well, he’ll be putting up a fight for a Chase spot.
A Chase Win Finally Comes
Kyle Busch has made five Chase appearances since he entered the Sprint Cup Series in 2005. That would be 50 Chase races for the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing team.
Incredibly Busch is 0-49 in those races (he was parked in Texas this past November), he has yet to win in the Chase. In 2011 he came close, running second to Matt Kenseth at Charlotte in an event they both dominated. That seems to be the trend for Busch in the Chase, close but not close enough.
This coming season there will be bigger and better things for Busch. However, and it’s a big however toward this prediction, it will only happen if he doesn’t run in the Camping World Truck and Nationwide Series (NNS). Or at least if he cuts down his schedule more than it already is.
I’ve repeatedly said that if Busch was focused solely on the Cup Series he would a true force to be reckoned with. He’s dominated the regular season numerous times only to fall flat in the Chase when the pressure is on. Not so this year if Busch is committed and focused, not running back and forth between garages and states.
This will be the year of Kyle Busch, not just in the first 26 races but also through the Chase. He’s my championship pick.
Stenhouse Jr. Does It Again
The 2012 plans of Roush Fenway Racing and Nationwide Series champion Ricky Stenhouse Jr. aren’t known yet, the company still working on putting deals together to keep him in the No. 6.
The hope of all involved being that Stenhouse can come back to defend the title he won in 2011 after an impressive comeback campaign. He’s the future of the sport and seat time is of value and there isn’t a whole lot to choose from should a deal with RFR fall through.
Let’s stay on a positive note though, Stenhouse will be back in 2012 and he’ll again go at it with the best in the NNS. He’ll beat the Cup stars of Brad Keselowski and teammate Carl Edwards on his way to multiple wins – more than the two he had in 2011 – and his second title.
This time around Stenhouse will be even stronger. His team will be even better and more prepared and they’ll become the first back-to-back NNS champions since Martin Truex Jr. in 2004 and 2005 and like Truex they too will then move to the Cup Series.
Bridesmaid No More
Even though Johnny Sauter did everything he could to win the championship in the season finale at Homestead, it wasn’t enough. But in 2012 with champion Austin Dillon moving to the NNS and with Sauter’s ThorSport team now with the backing of Toyota, Sauter will be your new champ.
Had it not been for bad luck, changing lanes in Texas to lose the win, some bad breaks, having an axle break with 20 laps to go while pitting after dominating Kentucky, Sauter might be going for back-to-back titles. Instead he’s eager to get started on the New Year with his belief that his team are the favorites.
It will continue his rise in the series where he now has four career wins in 86 starts. His last two points finishes of third in 2010 and second last season make Sauter one of the stars of the series. This will be the year that Sauter breaks through to become its biggest star.
Happy New Year NASCAR fans, here’s to one with plenty of excitement and history in the making.
