In September, Hendrick Motorsports decided to appeal William Byron’s post-race penalty for spinning Denny Hamlin at Texas Motor Speedway. This decision-making could backfire if the team loses a NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 position.
The aftermath of Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway is positive for Hendrick Motorsports, as Kyle Larson collected his third win in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series.
However, depending on future results, overall celebrations could be dented for the Hendrick Motorsports team.
Larson’s weekend victory didn’t secure him into Championship 4; the defending champion was eliminated after the round of 12 and was ineligible for the round of 8. With only one remaining race for the round of 8, Joey Logano of Team Penske is the lone Championship 4 qualifier after winning the round of 8 opening race in Las Vegas.
Despite this, Larson’s #5 teams have qualified for the Championship 4 owner playoffs.
A position opened when Ryan Blaney failed to qualify; the #12 Team Penske’s, therefore, didn’t advance to the round of 8.
Blaney wouldn’t have naturally qualified for the playoffs, but Kurt Busch of 23XI Racing was sidelined due to an injury. Busch grabbed a playoff position when taking 1st place at Kansas Speedway.
As Busch withdrew, his success at Kansas Speedway was relevant to the #45 team, as the #45 teams didn’t qualify for the owner playoffs. Therefore, the 12 teams were forced into a 10-week clash for 17th place.
Currently, William Byron has +800 betting odds available to win the singles NASCAR Championship, but the penalty appeal could have a lasting effect on Hendrick Motorsports as a whole. The owner’s championship odds can be boosted with bookies in Kansas that offer promo codes, but it would be painful for a past decision to prevent Hendrick Motorsports’ chance of success.
Byron steps up, dropping Larson down
Initially, Larson was the first to reach the cut line following the round of 12, tying with Chase Briscoes for the eighth and final position. But as Briscoe owned the best finish from the three-round second round, he won the tiebreaker and advanced.
All was not lost for Hendrick Motorsports. William Byron was 11 points clear of the cut line, locking himself into the round of 8. However, if the team didn’t appeal the 25-point penalty at Texa motor Speedway, Bryon would have placed 14 points clear, and Larson would have advanced. And if the penalty weren’t overturned, Larson would have qualified for the round of 8.
While it isn’t confirmed, the decision to appeal Byron could cost Hendrick Motorsports a Championship 4 spot.
The current NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 cut line is as follows:
- 2 – Ross Chastain – 4,101 (+19)
- 3 – Chase Elliot – 4,093 (+11)
- 4 – William Byron – 4,087 (+5)
–Cup Series Championship 4 Cut Line –
- 5 – Denny Hamlin – 4,082 (-5)
- 6 – Ryan Blaney – 4,069 (-18)
- 7 – Christopher Bell – 4,054 (-33)
- 8 – Chase Briscoe – 4,043 (-44)
If Larson made it to the round of 8 and Byron didn’t, here’s how the line would look:
- 3 – Ross Chastain – 4,101 (+19)
- 4 – Chase Elliot – 4,093 (+11)
–Cup Series Championship 4 Cut Line –
- 5 – Denny Hamlin – 4,082 (-5)
- 6 – Ryan Blaney – 4,069 (-18)
- 7 – Christopher Bell – 4,054 (-33)
- 8 – Chase Briscoe – 4,043 (-44)
Despite this, the world’s greatest NASCAR minds couldn’t have anticipated that Larson could potentially miss the round of 8 because of Byron’s successful appeal.
Suppose Byron doesn’t make the final cut. In that case, Larson’s elimination in the round of 12 could also play a part in Chase Elliott’s advancement (Elliot would be fifth if Larson took fourth), so Hendrick Motorsports would have only had one driver in the Championship 4 anyway.
However, should Elliot claim the title over the likes of Logano in second, the decision could, ultimately, see Hendrick Motorsports lift the championship over Team Penske.
Three positions remain open, and nothing is guaranteed for a Hendrick Motorsports driver. Both Elliot and Byron are in contention.
Although the team will be pleased with one place, the appeal has prevented Larson from taking one of the three spots. And imagine if Larson wins Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway, a win that would have seen him win a consecutive championship. Still, then a Hendrick Motorsports driver doesn’t lift the cup whatsoever? The penalty appeal could be more damaging than most of us realize; it’s all dependent on how the remainder of the season plays out.
