The Final Word – After the march through Atlanta, it is on to Richmond

Damn engines. They can put you in front, as it did for Brad Keselowski for 31 laps. They can break your heart, when he had to drop back as it went from an eight to a six cylinder. They can leave you parked in 35th when it finally lets go. It left the defending series king with pretty much of a must win situation when they resume Saturday night in Richmond.

Seven in, five to be decided. After Atlanta, we know the Chase will feature Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth, all in by points.  We know that even if Kasey Kahne finishes outside the top-10, he is in as his two win total can be matched but can not be beat among wild card entrants. That reduces further to four openings if Dale Earnhardt Jr can manage to finish among the top-30 this weekend.

Four spots, nine contenders, unless you want to include Paul Menard, who would need to win and hope for something just short of an alien abduction of Martin Truex Jr and Ryan Newman to make it.

Jamie McMurray could make it with a win, but he would need neither Truex or Newman to appear in the Top 20 at Richmond.  All could still make it on points, though the odds get longer the deeper they are in the pack. Wins by Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Truex or Newman would lock them in one way or the other. A bad day outside the top-30 and the wrong guy winning has all on this list vulnerable.

Rating Atlanta – 7.5/10 – It should have been higher. Two leading the race, Keselowski and Clint Bowyer, disappear due to engine woes and a botched restart leaves both Kasey Kahne and Jimmie Johnson with sub-par days, ESPN even had some decent camera shots, if they bothered to use them. In the end, this one seemed to drag on despite the drama. NASCAR is like baseball at 190 mph in that it often seems that little changes from lap to lap, or pitch to pitch. Unless the broadcast weaves a narrative it can get rather monotonous.

While it is likely Junior will make it, a win at Richmond would end all speculation. He has three there, though the last was in 2006. Jeff Gordon always seems to run well there, but the last of his two victories at Richmond came in 2000. Newman won back in 2003 and has a great average finish ratio. Kurt was a winner in 2005.  In the end, I think the present standings gives us the best clue as to how this all will finish. My prediction is that Logano and Biffle will get in on points, while Gordon and Kurt battle to the end for the tenth spot, with Truex and Newman in a tight fight to see which gets the second wild card. No point talking about additional wins, unless you are talking about Kyle Busch.

Now, on to Richmond! Enjoy the week.