Home Blog Page 6083

Matty’s Picks: Vol. 26 – Texas – November 6, 2011

I am a fan of old western movies, (some of my favorites include High Plains Drifter, The Outlaw Josy Wales, and North To Alaska) and this week couldn’t be any more of a cliché storyline showdown if you asked for it.

[media-credit name=”texasmotorspeedway.com” align=”alignright” width=”300″][/media-credit]First, the race takes place in the Lone Star State, the most cliché western setting on the face of the Earth. Second, The Chase for the Sprint Cup is boiling down to a two-man showdown between points-leader, Carl Edwards and two-time Sprint Cup Champion Tony Stewart. The lead has been shaved to eight with just three weekends remaining in the 2011 campaign.

Third, the video and graphics posted on Texas Motor Speedway’s homepage tells it all. President of Texas Motor Speedway, Eddie Gossage might be dubbed the Don King of NASCAR after this weekend’s hype of the Stewart/Edwards saga.

Not to add insult to injury but fourth, Tony Stewart’s comments in Victory Lane last weekend at Martinsville Speedway was the quote heard ‘round the world: “Carl Edwards had better be real worried. That’s all I’ve got to say. He’s not going to sleep for the next three weeks.

This race has certainly gained the attention of race fans across the globe, and may be more hyped than the “Thrilla in Manila” before all is said and done.

Martinsville Recap

With qualifying rained out last Saturday, Denny Hamlin would start the No. 11 FedEx Freight Toyota 11th, and quickly made it known that I had made a solid Winner Pick. An early incident would force Hamlin to Pit Road for fresh slicks, restarting him at the rear of the field. The fresh Goodyear’s were all he needed to hit the point by lap 63.

As all race fans know, 500 laps at Martinsville is an eternity…Hamlin, the favorite at the historic short track knows that the key to winning at the paper clip is staying out of trouble. Caution by caution, the race drew on until Hamlin regained the lead at lap 320.

With 81 laps remaining, Hamlin was shown fourth on the leaderboard, but could not find the speed to run with eventual race-winner, but enough to fend off the lower-half of the Top-10, finishing in 5th. My Winner Pick mentioned the chaos last week after the checkered flew: “For Martinsville for sure. People just have no regard. I would get into guys and then I know it’s coming — I’m going to get slammed in the next corner. It’s just one of those things where it’s frustrating to watch because you see some of these cars getting torn up on accidents. Accidents happen and some these drivers need to realize that.

As for my Dark Horse Pick, I was at a severe disadvantage when I submitted my column last week before ANY on-track activity at the paper clip. After starting 20th, Juan Montoya drove his way into the Top-15, overcame two costly penalties on Pit Road, but still finished outside the Top-20 in 22nd.

I said last week that I was going out on a limb by picking the Colombia native, and that’s exactly the result I received when the hoodless No. 42 Target Chevrolet crossed the finish line in 22nd last week.

Texas Picks

Dark Horse Pick

Marcos Ambrose is my guy this week.

Ambrose is starting to get the hang of these fast 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. His performances this season Texas and her two twin sisters, Charlotte and Atlanta, has proved that Ambrose is a threat when the haulers pull into Fort Worth. Ambrose finished 6th in our first trip to Texas Motor Speedway this spring, he matched that finish at Charlotte in the Coke Zero 600, and one-up’ed himself just three weeks ago in the Bank of America 500, finishing 5th.

His only finish outside the Top-10 out of the three sister tracks was Labor Day weekend at Atlanta where he finished 21st. Prior to this season, Ambrose hadn’t scored a Top-10 at Texas Motor Speedway. Ambrose will bring the same chassis that has finished so well this season (No. 735) at Texas, Charlotte, and Atlanta,

He is coming off a fairly dismal, 29th-place finish last week at Martinsville and looks forward to Sunday’s AAA Texas 500: “I enjoy going to Texas Motor Speedway. I have run well there in the past and it’s always seemed to be a good track for me. We’ve been good on 1.5-mile tracks this year and I think we’ve got the intermediate track setup figured out. We are taking the same car we finished sixth with earlier this year back to Texas this weekend, so I’m optimistic about our chances and I expect to see the DEWALT Ford finish in the Top 10 Sunday.”

Winner Pick

Its only right that I pick one of the two drivers taking part in the Showdown In The Lone State State this week. That being said, I’m going with the driver of the duo that has yet to score a win in this 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup.

After this spring’s trip to Texas, Carl Edwards was shown 3rd on the leaderboard behind race-winner Matt Kenseth, and non-chaser Clint Bowyer.  This was the first trip to Texas since 2008 that Edwards scored a Top-5, following a drought that lasted the 2009 and 2010 seasons.

Edwards swept the races at Texas in 2008, and scored his first victory at Texas in the fall of 2005. Edwards has finished outside the Top-10 just one time during this 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup, his 11th place finish coming at the roulette wheel, Talladega Superspeedway.

It’s almost a lock for a Top-5 this week for me, and with Edwards’ attitude working for me, my confidence level couldn’t be any higher: “We couldn’t be coming to a better race track. This track has been great for us. Practice went really well. We’ve got two Fords one and two and we’ve got as good a car and engine as we’ve ever brought here, so that’s good and I’m just ready for qualifying tonight. We’d like to qualify well and get a good starting position. It would be really nice if we could qualify on the pole and get that first pit box. That would be spectacular, but this race is one of the most fun races we go to.” 

That’s it for this week, stay tuned next week as The 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup heads to the desert…

Until next week…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

NOTES FROM THE NASCAR NATION: WHO’S GOING TO BECOME A PISTOL PACKER AT TEXAS?

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ Chase For The Championship moves on to round number eight this Sunday at the Texas Motor Speedway. The winner of the AAA Texas 500 will get to observe the time honored tradition of firing those twin six shooters in victory lane. Considering the list of Chase hopefuls, and potential spoilers, on the entry list for this race, the Texas pistol packer could be just about anyone.

Without question, the focus of Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 will be on NASCAR’s Chase For The Championship. The arithmetic of the matter indicates that the top five drivers in the standings still have a chance at taking the Sprint Cup trophy home. The reality of the matter, though, states that the championship may turn out to become a points shootout between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart.

The potential drama of a title run between these two drivers is already in place and the get into each other’s heads trash talking has already begun. This is going to be fun racing fans.

THE LAS VEGAS BREAKDOWN

To get an idea regarding which driver is going to fire those pistols in the Texas Motor Speedway’s victory lane, we once again turn to the professional number crunchers from the Las Vegas based World Sports Exchange, (WSE), who has once again has presented us with something to think about.

Topping this week’s WSE ranking, at 7 to 1 odds, is the trio of Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson. Edwards is on top of the current Chase standings by eight points. He survived potential points disasters at Talladega and Martinsville and will be the first to tell you he was lucky. The mile and a half format at Texas is more suitable for this driver and he has very good numbers there including a series high three wins, four top five finishes, five top tens and a very healthy average finish ratio, (AFR), of 10.0. Also bear in mind that the Roush Fenway Fords has some very strong numbers at Texas.

Also at 7 to 1 is Roush Fenway Racing Ford driver Matt Kenseth. Unfortunately this driver had a disaster of a day in Martinsville and has fallen to fifth in the standing, 36 points away from first, and his championship hopes are treading water. However, he could pick up some ground at Texas where he has outstanding numbers that includes two wins, nine top fives and a very healthy 9.0 AFR.

At sixth in the Chase standings, 43 points away, it appears that Jimmie Johnson’s efforts to win a sixth, consecutive, championship is now gone. But that doesn’t mean this driver is going to lay down and quit during the final three races of the season. He’s a previous winner at Texas with seven top fives and a 9.9 AFR. Those numbers says consider placing a wager on him.

The WSE has drivers Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, and Jeff Gordon rated at 9 to 1 odds for Texas. Stewart was a late bloomer this season and didn’t find victory lane until the ten race Chase series started. But “Smoke” caught fire and, in seven Chase events, he’s won three of them and that’s what placed in second in the standings and eight points away. He’s a previous winner at Texas with four top fives and a 13.2 AFR.

Following a disaster of a day in Martinsville last weekend, Kyle Busch now finds himself seventh in the standings and 56 points away. His Texas numbers really aren’t that strong. He’s still looking for his first win there and has a 16.2 AFR. But this is Kyle Busch we’re talking about. If all of the needed elements falls into place at Texas, he’s more than capable of winning this race. That’s likely why the WSE has rated him so highly this week.

Meanwhile Jeff Gordon, now tenth in the standings and 76 points away, has seen his drive for five championship program disappear. But here’s another driver that will not lay down and is expected to run strong at Texas where he’s a previous winner. All three of these drivers in the 9 to 1 group are very good wager considerations.

At 10 to 1 odds is Kevin Harvick who, at third in the standings and 21 points away, is still very active in the championship profile. He’s still looking for his first win at Texas but he does have three top fives and a healthy 12.9 AFR.

Denny Hamlin is ranked by the WSE at 12 to 1 to win at Texas. Hamlin’s overall season has been somewhat of a disappointment, but his Texas numbers says consider him to be an excellent longshot wager. He’s a two time winner there with five top fives and a very good 9.3 AFR.

Turning to the WSE’s middle tier this week we have Clint Bowyer and previous Texas winner Greg Biffle at 15 to 1 odds.

Brad Keselowski and Kasey Kahne, a previous race winner, along with Kurt Busch, another race winner, are ranked at 20 to 1. If you’re into longshot wagers, any one of this trio could be worthy of your consideration.

At 25 to 1 odds is the pride of the Junior Nation. Dale Earnhardt Jr is a previous winner at Texas and has a healthy 14.5 AFR.

Looking at the WSE’s lower tier, previous race winner Ryan Newman leads this pack at 30 to 1 followed by David Ragan at 35 to 1. At 40 to 1 is the duo of previous race winner Mark Martin along with Juan Pablo Montoya. Finishing this week’s list, at 50 to 1, is the quartet of Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr, Jeff Burton and David Reutimann.

If you do not see the name of your favorite driver on the WSE’s Texas listing, that means they are automatically ranked in the “all others” category at 15 to 1 odds.

Here’s the disclaimer: NASCAR wants us to remind you that these numbers should be viewed for informational and entertainment purposes. They neither encourage nor condone the placing of wager on their events.

Personally, I can’t imagine betting on a NASCAR race. The tenuous, final lap, capabilities alone says that there really is no such thing as a safe bet in this sport. But if you’re going to do it anyway, at least you have the numbers from the professionals at the WSE so you can make an informed decision.

THE RACE BREAKDOWN

The AAA Texas 500 is 334 laps/501 miles around the Texas Motor Speedway’s 1.5 mile quad oval.

The race has 48 posted entries vying for the 43 starting positions. 13 of those entries are on the go or go home list meaning they are not guaranteed a starting berth in the race because they are currently outside of NASCAR’s top 35 in owner’s points. These teams will have to rely on qualifying speeds to make the race.

Construction on the Texas Motor Speedway began in 1995 followed by the official opening in 1997.

The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held there in April of 1997 and was won by Jeff Burton. Since that time the speedway has hosted 21 NASCAR Sprint Cup events which has sent 16 winners to victory lane. Carl Edwards has a series high three wins at Texas followed by Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton with two wins each. Edwards and Hamlin are the only drivers to sweep both Texas events in the same year. Denny Hamlin is the defending race winner while Matt Kenseth won the spring race at Texas last April.  Roush Fenway Racing leads the team wins there with eight followed by Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing with three each. Matt Kenseth has a series high eight top five finishes at Texas while Mark Martin leads the top ten category with 12.

Track position is always important at the Texas Motor Speedway and that places an emphasis on qualifying day. The track qualifying record, 196.235 MPH, was set by Brian Vickers in November of 2006. Only one race at Texas has been one from the pole position, Kasey Kahne in April of 2006, but 15 races have been won from starting positions within the top ten.

The mammoth Texas Motor Speedway is 58 feet wide with 24 degrees of banking in the turns but only five degrees of banking on the straights and the dog leg. The front stretch measures 2,250 feet long while the back stretch measures 1,330 feet. The pit road speed is 45 MPH. The pit window, according to Goodyear engineers, is 48 to 52 laps based on individual fuel mileage.The speedway can presently accommodate 191,122 fans.

The weather forecast for the greater Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas area calls for sunny skies on Friday and Saturday with daytime highs ranging between 65 to 71 degrees. However, there is a slight, 20 percent, chance of thunder storms on Sunday race day. The Texas Motor Speedway has a fleet of six jet dryers that can completely dry the track in approximately two hours.

The AAA Texas 500 will be broadcast live by ESPN with the “Countdown” show beginning at 2 pm eastern time followed by the green flag at 3 pm et. The race re airs will be Monday, at 3 am et, on ESPN2 and on Wednesday, 12 pm et, on SPEED.