Slide into your cowboy boots, hop on your trusty steed and ride out west because NASCAR is heading to the LoneStar State.
This week, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series rolls into Fort Worth, Texas to run the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. The 501 mile (801.6 km) race on the 1.5-mile (2.4 km) quad-oval intermediate speedway will be the seventh race of the 2016 season.
I don’t know what to expect this weekend, even with the low-downforce package. With that and the aged surface, one might expect to see what we saw at Atlanta and Auto Club. However, Texas has not put on good races for many years now. It got to the point that Texas became my least favorite track on the schedule. In the past, I’ve set my expectations of Texas to nothing. This weekend, I’m tempted to maybe bump my expectations a tad bit higher.
Texas Motor Speedway opened its doors in 1997 to a crowd of over 180-thousand fans, a 13-car wreck going into turn 1 and Jeff Burton scoring his first victory in the Sprint Cup Series. After 30 races the track has seen 18 different drivers shoot off the six-shooters in victory lane. In fact, we went 12 straight races before having a repeat winner here in 2007. Now I know what you’re thinking, “But Tucker, hasn’t one driver practically owned the deed at Texas since 2012?” You probably weren’t, but I needed a segue.
At 9/2 (Vegas Insider), the hands-on favorite this weekend is one Jimmie Kenneth Johnson.
In 25 career starts at Texas, the driver of the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet has amassed six wins, 13 top fives (52 percent) and 19 top-10s (76 percent). In the last eight races, he’s led 156, 168, zero, 255, zero, 191, 128 and six laps. He won in five of those eight races.
In his last eight races, he’s finished second, first, sixth, first, 25th, first, first and first. That’s a 4.8 average finish to go along with a career average of 8.4 at Texas. He’s also DNF’d at Texas once in his career at Texas back in 2007.
Just like I’ve joked about Phoenix being the track owned by Happy Harvick, Texas is quickly becoming the track owned by Johnson. He’s also on a role with two wins and sits second in points.I expect Johnson to be up front and fighting for the victory on Saturday night.
Next up at 7/1 is Kyle Thomas Busch.
In 20 career starts, the driver of the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has amassed one win, nine top five’s (45 percent) and 10 top-10s (50 percent).
His stats aren’t nearly as impressive as Johnson’s. But then again, who’s would be?
Since 2012, he’s led zero, 80, 171, two, 10, zero and one lap(s). In that same timespan, he’s finished 11th, third, first, 13th, fourth, third and third. That’s a 5.4 finishing average since 2012, which is more than twice as good as his 12.4 career finishing average at Texas.
Unlike Johnson, Busch has never failed to finish a race in the LoneStar State. You can expect to see Busch fighting for the win on Saturday night.
The final driver I’ll talk about at 5/1 is Kevin Michael Harvick.
In 26 career starts, the driver of the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet has amassed zero wins, six top fives (23.1 percent) and 14 top-10s (53.9 percent).
Since 2012, he’s finished ninth, ninth, 13th, eighth, 42nd, second, second and third. That’s a finishing average of 11th. While that’s lower than Johnson’s since 2012, his best runs have come in his time with SHR.
Until last season, Harvick had never led more than two laps in a race at Texas. In both races last year, he led 96 and 11 laps.
There’s also hardly a track on the schedule where he doesn’t put on a great drive. So I would expect Harvick to be a threat to win on Saturday.
Coverage of the Duck Commander 500 begins Saturday night at 7 p.m. ET on FOX. You can catch the radio broadcast at 6:30 p.m. ET on MRN and Sirius XM (subscription required for the latter).
