The South Point 400 is set to take place on Sunday, October 4 at the famous Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The fifth race of the late season 10-race Chase could be defining for several drivers, with the two Championship favorites Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin both needing strong results.
Larson is fresh off of a dominating victory in Kansas – the first perfect score of the season – while Denny Hamlin has won his last two outings at the Vegas Speedway. The former leads the Chase by 26 points with Hamlin in second and then everyone else some 50 points or more behind them. That all means this race could be make or break for the champion contenders. This is what you need to know about the betting odds and prediction market opinions.
Kyle Larson Still Top for Cup Series Contention
Whether it’s NASCAR or any other sport, few places have built a better grasp of potential sporting outcomes than sportsbook operators. The multibillion-dollar sector is in the business of getting these things right, or they stand to lose out to sharp bettors.
To that end this piece uses average sportsbook odds as a guide for South Point 400 predictions.
To illustrate, Covers’ list of betting options in the US will include many of the sportsbooks averaged across the stats in this piece. These online resources are used by bettors to get an overview of the market, including depth of betting selections, payment methods and potential bonuses – so they give a good overview of what an exemplary sportsbook and its odds look like.
Specifically for the 2026 South Point 400 NASCAR Cup race, US sportsbooks rate Kyle Larson as the close favorite to take home the win. The Hendrick Motorsports driver is also favorite to win the Cup Series, sitting 26 points above Denny Hamlin with just five races remaining including Las Vegas.
Larson is currently averaging around +350 (22.2% implied probability) to take home the South Point 400 trophy. Hamlin is just behind at +400 or 20% implied. Some sportsbooks have the two as dead level, although none have gone as far as to favor Hamlin.
Back-to-Back Vegas Winner Denny Hamlin Shouldn’t Be Discounted
Those odds might come as a surprise to NASCAR fans who recently watched Larson dominate the Hollywood Casino 400 in Kansas. Not only did he score a maximum 76 points by winning both stages and securing the fastest lap, but he set a new record for the Kansas Speedway after leading 235 of 267 laps.
The defending Champion was only passed by Chase Briscoe, who led for 19 laps towards the end of the race, but the result never looked really in doubt.
However, the sportsbooks may be considering the impressive form of Denny Hamlin at Las Vegas races in recent years. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver won the South Point 400 in 2025 and then won the 2026 Pennzoil 400 which also takes place at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
That gives him a rare two consecutive cup victories at one track – so clearly he is a specialist on this course. Not only that but his Spring 2026 win saw him dominate the field after taking an early penalty.
That has almost certainly contributed to Hamlin sitting at almost neck-and-neck odds with Larson going into the second Vegas NASCAR Cup race of the year, despite the latter’s massive performance in Kansas just a week ago.
Bell is a Third Contender, Briscoe, Reddick in the Distant Chasing Pack
The story of the South Point 400 in 2026 and its betting odds mirrors the season so far. Larson and Hamlin are way out in front, with few others looking capable of challenging them at this stage.
Christopher Bell is the nearest contender for this weekend’s race, averaging around +800 (11% implied probability) at most US sportsbooks. That is actually a little longer than his Cup Champion standings might suggest. He currently sits 50 points behind Kyle Larson, averaging around +500 (16.7% implied) to win the Championship.
This reflects the fact that Larson and Hamlin are in blistering form, while both have been known to have sudden drop-offs before, and Bell has yet to win in Las Vegas. The Joe Gibbs team driver has had five career top-five finishes in Nevada but has yet to win a race at the Sin City Speedway.
One interesting driver to look at is Tyler Reddick. The 23XI driver had a storming start to the season with five wins out of nine races, but has since fallen off a cliff in terms of form. He is averaging around +1200 to win the South Point 400, or 7.7% implied, while his Championship odds have fallen from a peak of around +250 (28% chance) in May to around +3400 as of writing (2.9% implied).
