After bumping and grinding at Bristol Motor Speedway last week, the Sprint Cup Series heads to the 2-mile, low-banked oval of Auto Club Speedway. Despite being very similar in shape to its sister track Michigan International Speedway, the two tracks drive very differently. Since the repave at Michigan, the low and middle groove are the only fast ways of getting around the track. Auto Club Speedway has never been repaved since 1997, so it is one of the oldest surfaces on the Sprint Cup schedule.
In qualifying, I saw drivers using the high line to try and find some grip, even though it isn’t the shortest way around the track. Winning at Auto Club not only requires great horsepower to pull you down the straightaways, but also a great suspension package to help you get a good drive off the corners. We know that someone will get it exactly right on Sunday, and here’s three drivers that probably will.
Jimmie Johnson
There are some instances where it is actually difficult to pick a definitive favorite to win the race. This is not the case with the Auto Club 400. Jimmie Johnson has won four of the last 10 races at his home track, and five overall including his first victory back in 2002. He’s also finished in the top five 12 times and has an astounding average finish of 5.7. Some may argue that he’s lost his touch over the past couple of years, and that his prime at Auto Club came in the Car of Tomorrow era, but I believe they’ve found the magic yet again. Johnson was fastest in the first practice and ended up third in qualifying. There’s no question he’ll be a factor in Sunday’s race.
Matt Kenseth
Although Kenseth hasn’t won a race at Auto Club since 2009, his record at the track has been pretty solid over the past few years. His average finish over the past 10 races of 9.5 is third only to Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson. Joe Gibbs Racing has found some speed at the past few visits to the track, mainly with Kyle Busch, who won the race last year. However, looking at the first practice speeds, it appears that Kyle Busch may not have the speed he did last year. Kenseth, who qualified on the pole, will pick up the slack for his teammate.
Jeff Gordon
The inaugural winner at Auto Club Speedway is back at it again with a fast Hendrick Chevrolet. In practice, Gordon was second behind his teammate Jimmie Johnson, and he actually ran faster than the track record. In qualifying, he was consistently at the top of the charts until the final round, where he ended up sixth. The four-time Sprint Cup champion hasn’t even had a top-five at Auto Club since 2009, but I believe they have found the magic yet again. Although it looks like his teammate will be leading the way on Sunday, Jeff Gordon won’t be far behind.
Whoever shines brightest at Auto Club will be the driver that effectively communicates where the car is losing speed. That’s why Jimmie Johnson is so good here, because it isn’t just about pure speed. It’s about adjusting the chassis, the tire pressures and the wedge throughout the race so that you can develop a perfect drive off the corner. Then it’s all about what you’ve got under the hood to pull you down those long straightaways. There’s always one driver that hits the set up exactly right, and whoever that driver is, rest assured that they will be unstoppable on race day.
Statistics retrieved from racing-reference.info.
