Can Keselowski Catch Johnson?
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[/media-credit]The question that most Sprint Cup fans are asking doesn’t have any good answer. Can Keselowski catch him? Immediately one can look at the seven point deficit and notice that finishing four places above Jimmie Johnson in two races, not considering the bonus points for leading laps, is a monumental task. Is it possible? Yes. Is it plausible? Not likely.
When NASCAR decided to come up with the playoff system that we now know as the Chase, they didn’t change much about the final ten races, which was supposed to be the playoff. In the beginning it began with New Hampshire and ended at NASCAR’s owned track at Homestead, Florida. It didn’t work out, but they added Chicagoland, just another mile and a half that the Lowe’s team thrives at, and nothing changed. In fact, it made more of an advantage for the No. 48 team. So it plays out this year like all the rest of the past seven years. Game over.
This is not an indictment of Jimmie Johnson, the Lowe’s team for Hendrick Motorsports. They know the program and base their season on the last ten races. They may lag behind in the first 26 races (when Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth seemed to be at the top most of the season), but they are prepared for the final ten races where they shine. It’s a good strategy. Play by the rules, which might be an outrageous statement when considering the No. 48 team, is how you win. When you go to the same tracks at the end of the season in your playoff you get what you deserve—a boring finish.
Last year was different. You had Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart fighting it out. Edwards took the lead and fought hard during the “playoffs,” but tied Stewart with the championship coming down to the number of wins. This year it is different. Despite Keselowski’s valiant and sometimes inhuman effort using pit strategy and banking on luck, it seems to come down to skill versus desire. Skill usually wins in these cases, and that will be the decisive factor this year. Keselowski’s somewhat inexperience combined with the experience of Rick Hendrick’s team will prevail as usual. I don’t see any way that the Johnson freight train will derail. And that makes a very important point. After Phoenix, how many will tune in or attend for the final Ford Championship weekend at Homestead? I fear the worst.
The whole point of the Chase format was that it would create excitement for the end of the season and create a so-called horse race. Unfortunately, while it worked in 2011, it isn’t working this year, and probably won’t in most years. Racing is so different than stick and ball sports. Trying to emulate the playoff system in those sports is futile. Yes, we can have a system like the NFL, the model for the Chase, was a bad attempt at creating excitement, but it never takes into account the fact that the NFL, the NBA, or even MLB, have no advantage or certain tracks. They get to be home and away, with the advantage going to the home team. In the NASCAR world, the home advantage clearly exists with one team. Until the final ten races are changed, you can expect the same result forever and ever. Don’t forget that 2011 was an aberration. The sooner that NASCAR changes the schedule, the better this end of season thing will become. Unfortunately, that’s a hard thing to do. Add Darlington and Bristol? Great idea. Get rid of New Hampshire and adding Richmond? Yes. But it highlights the real problem.
There is no reason to have a playoff in NASCAR. Run the races from one to 36. Crown a champion and place the emphasis on each race during the season and giving proper kudos to the winner. That’s the way it always was and why wasn’t that good enough today when it was what built the sport? Beats me.
NOTES FROM THE NASCAR NATION: A LUCAS OIL TAIL GATE PARTY IN PHOENIX
Lucas Oil would cordially like to invite all racing fans to their NASCAR tail gate party to be held Friday, November 9th, at the Phoenix International Raceway. The Lucas Oil 150 NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race is guaranteed to provide all of the tail gate excitement expected from NASCAR’s truck brigade. The race will also present some serious championship implications between two young NASCAR superstars of the future. All of this will transpire on a one mile, basically flat, oval with a new pavement and configuration that the series has never raced on before. How could the Lucas Oil 150 not be a major tail gate party?
THE STORY BREAKDOWN
The big story line, associated with the Lucas Oil 150, is the status of the series championship and the young lion drivers who are on top of these standings. With only two races left in the season, James Buescher, representing Turner Motorsports, tops the championship numbers with a 15 points advantage over Ty Dillon, representing Richard Childress Racing. In a racing environment where literally anything can happen, and often does, 15 points is not exactly a championship security blanket. Mathematically speaking, Buescher can clinch the series’ championship if he leaves Phoenix 48 points ahead of second place. That’s scenario is not exactly an impossible goal to reach, but it’s not exactly likely to happen either.
While Buescher will certainly be focused on getting the maximum points from Friday night’s Lucas Oil 150, in the back of his mind he may be thinking that the Phoenix International Raceway owes him one from last year. During the series’ 2011 event, Buescher’s truck was mysteriously off the pace to the point he missed earning a starting berth by a mere two-one hundredths of a second during qualifying. The team would rebound, turn in some impressive numbers during the 2011 season and finish third in the final championship standings 29 points out of first. Many series observers at the time felt Buescher would have won his first series championship last year had it not been for what happened at Phoenix.
The two championship contenders will have plenty of competition from some other eager young lions entered in the Lucas Oil 150. David Mayhew, from the NASCAR K&N Pro Series West, will receive another shot at competing in a NASCAR’s national series in Brad Keselowski Racing’s #19 Dodge Ram. Ryan Blaney, an up and comer that many believes has a very bright NASCAR future, will be driving BKR’s second Dodge Truck.
Other young lions in the field includes Kyle Larson, the newly crowned NASCAR K&N Pro Series East champion, who will be driving a Turner Motorsports Chevy Truck in the race. Ryan Truex will be trying to make his presence felt behind the wheel of Michael Hillman’s Toyota. Kyle Busch Motorsports will have NASCAR Nationwide Series driver Brian Scott behind the wheel of their famed #18 Toyota. KBM will also field a second Toyota for German Quiroga, the three time champion from the NASCAR Toyota Mexico Series.
The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series’ last appearance at the Phoenix International Raceway was in February of last year. Since that time the raceway underwent a massive reconfiguration complete with brand new asphalt. That will present a brand new challenge to the truck drivers and could add another level of potential excitement during the Lucas Oil 150.
THE RACE BREAKDOWN
The Lucas Oil 150 is 150laps/150miles around the Phoenix International Raceway’s 1 mile oval.
The race has 38 posted entries vying for the 36 starting berths. 13 of those entries are on the go or go home list meaning they are not guaranteed a starting berth in the Lucas Oil 150 because they are currently outside of the series’ top 25 in owner’s points. These teams will have to rely on qualifying speeds to make the race.
There will be no repeat champion for this year’s Lucas Oil 150. Defending race champion Kyle Busch is not entered in this year’s race.
The challenging Phoenix International Raceway is basically a flat track with only 11 degrees of banking in turns one and two and nine degrees in turns three and four. The frontstretch, measuring 1,179 feet, is only banked three degrees while the backstretch, 1,551 feet long, has nine degrees of banking.
The Lucas Oil 150 will be broadcast live by the SPEED Channel Friday night beginning at 730 pm eastern time. A replay is scheduled for Saturday morning at 130 am eastern.
