Matty’s Picks Vol. 9 – Kentucky – Quaker State 400 – July 9, 2011
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[/media-credit]This week, the NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads to the state known not for stock car racing, but for its horse racing. Yes, each year the Thunder Over Louisville is the opening ceremony for the most prestigious horse race in the world, the Kentucky Derby. Not only does the Kentucky Derby Festival hold the world’s largest fireworks display in the world, but Kentucky holds more gold in storage inside the vaults of Fort Knox, than any other place in the world. Over $6 billion dollars worth of gold calls Kentucky home in the underground storage vaults.
Enough with the quirky facts about the state and onto the RACING!
Just 11 years ago, Jerry Carroll’s dream came became a reality when he opened the front gates to Kentucky Speedway on June 16, 2000. It was two years and $153 million dollars that finally got the track opened for its first event, a Slim Jim All Pro Series race. The day following, Greg Biffle won the first NASCAR sanctioned race at Kentucky in the Camping World Truck Series. Since then, Kentucky Speedway has been a stop for the Camping World Truck Series, Nationwide Series, IZOD IndyCar Series, and the Firestone Indy Light Series.
In 2008, the track was purchased from owner Jerry Carroll by Speedway Motorsports Inc with the intent to host a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series event during the 2009 racing season. Bruton Smith put an additional $50 million into the track, expanding the seating of the track from 66,000 to 107,000, reconfiguring pit road, and adding an additional 200 acres of camping around the complex. This proved to be enough to land an event at the speedway for the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. The race Saturday night has officially sold out and should prove to be one of the most memorable nights in the track’s brief history.
Kentucky Speedway’s layout mocks the layouts of Kansas Speedway and Chicagoland Speedway. With 14 degrees of banking in the corners, 8-10 degrees in the Tri-Oval and 4 degrees on the backstretch, Kentucky will prove to be a bit of a challenge to newcomers.
Daytona Recap
Because my Kentucky intro being as long-winded as it is, although tough with the excitement of the last 20 laps at Daytona, I will keep my recap of last week fairly brief.
My winner pick, Jeff Gordon, played the Hendrick game last Saturday night in an effort to steer clear of trouble. Gordon immediately hooked up with drafting partner, Mark Martin in the first few laps of the race, pushing Martin to the point. The tandem of Gordon and Martin would slip out of the top 20 just before lap number 20, and would ride in the middle of the pack until the 300-mile mark. Following their final green flag stops with 25 laps remaining, the duo would make their charge towards the front, moving to 7th and 8th with just 5 laps remaining. Gordon would make one of the best saves of his career, keeping the Pepsi Max Chevy clear of any barriers but would bring out the caution with just 4 to go. The first attempt at a GWC restart would go foul in Turn 2, putting Gordon in 17th on what would become the final restart. Gordon then hooked up with Toyota driver, Kyle Busch, and the tandem sliced through traffic and Busch pulled Gordon to a 6th place finish, netting me a top 10 for my winner pick.
A.J. Allmendinger would also net me a top 10 for my Dark Horse pick this past weekend in his No. 43 U.S. Air Force Ford Fusion. Also taking the mid-pack route on Saturday night, Allmendinger hooked up with teammate Marcos Ambrose early, but the tandem would eventually split late in the race after the No. 43 ran out of gas on lap 134. Allmendinger coasted onto pit road and would eventually go one lap down to the leaders. It wasn’t until the caution brought out by my winner pick that Allmendinger would gain the Lucky-Dog and jump back onto the lead lap. Starting at the rear of the field following the final two cautions would prove to be beneficial in the end for the Richard Petty Motorsports Driver. Allmendinger would avoid both cautions in overtime to drive to a 10th place finish, netting me another top ten for my Dark Horse pick.
Kentucky Picks
Onto my picks for this week.
I’m not going to bore you all to death with statistics this week only because THERE AREN’T ANY! I’m also not going to base my predictions on past finishes at Kansas or Chicagoland because the two tracks are rather similar to Kentucky Speedway, but that fact means nothing when it comes to an inaugural race. Each of the 43 drivers starting the race Saturday Night will be foaming at the drop of the green flag in an effort to become the first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series winner at Kentucky Speedway.
I’m not sure how legal this is in the eyes of the Matty’s Pick’s rules committee, but I’m picking a guy this week that fans may not always have as a contender to win week in and week out. He has won the past three NASCAR Nationwide Series races at Kentucky, and will use his experiences in the Nationwide cars to give him a bit of an edge on Saturday night. Joey Logano scored his first NASCAR win at Kentucky in 2008, but has not seen victory lane in the Sprint Cup series since his win at Loudon in June 2009. This is my basis for qualifying him as a Dark Horse this weekend, and my guess is he will prove me wrong as a Dark Horse by running in the top 10 on Saturday.
For my winner pick, I am also picking a driver with some experience at Kentucky Speedway. He won a race in the Nationwide Series at Kentucky in June of 2004. Rowdy Busch is my Winner pick for this week and I am basing this prediction off of desire. I think Kyle Busch has a spot on his mantle open for a trophy with the words “Inaugural Race Winner” inscribed on it, and Joe Gibbs Racing will give him the car he needs to go get it. Look for the No. 18 in Gatorade Victory Lane not only Saturday Night, but Friday in the Nationwide Series, and Thursday in the Camping World Truck Series as well.
This ends a very long-winded Matty’s picks this week, (including the two hidden Bonus Picks!) I am extremely excited to be joining the other 125,000 folks at Kentucky Speedway this weekend to watch history be made. I will make the journey from Buffalo, NY to be on hand for this epic event, and look forward to sharing some good food, good times, and great RACIN’ in the Bluegrass State!!!
Until next time…..you stay classy NASCAR NATION!!
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NASCAR Sprint Cup Point Standings Analytics – After Race 17
The announcement of a change to the distribution of points across NASCAR national series sparked debate among even the most conservative NASCAR fans. One of the explanations behind the change was to develop a more dramatic points battle to increase fan interest.
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[/media-credit]A debate arose over the fact that a quick calculation would show that very little, if anything, would change in the final championship standings. In fact, even among the more common point distributions across all major racing series, by the end of the season there did not appear to be much of a difference in the order of the final standings.
Here, I shall contend that debate with weekly comparisons across the three most commonly mentioned distributions, plus my own personal points schedule designed to reward both race winners and consistent high finishes.
Under the title ‘Chg’ lists the difference between a drivers points position between the points system and the current system.
Classic Points System – Standings After Race 17
In a perplexing difference, Kyle Busch would lead the point standings over Carl Edwards, while Kevin Harvick drops to third. Notably this can be attributed to Busch’s three additional top five finishes, a facet which was more emphasis under the old system.
Notable changes in position compared to current system: None
Changes to Chase Field: NONE
F1 System – Standings After Race 17
Edwards retains the the championship lead by virtue of his series leading 12 top ten finishes by 7 points over Kyle Busch. Matt Kenseth jumps up to third while actual points leader Kevin Harvick falls to fourth. Coke Zero 400 winner David Ragan jumps up to 11th in points, a mere four points out of the top ten
Notable Driver without points: Jeff Burton
Notable changes in position compared to current system: Marcos Ambrose (+9), Regan Smith (+8), David Ragan (+6), Kasey Kahne (+6), Ryan Newman (-4), Tony Stewart (-4), Greg Biffle (-8)
Changes to Chase Field: Brad Keselowski (IN), Ryan Newman (OUT)
IndyCar System – Standings After Race 17
Kyle Busch jumps up to a slim points lead over second place runner Carl Edwards. Again, Kevin Harvick finds himself dropped to third, followed by Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson.
Notable changes in position compared to current system: David Ragan (+6), Kasey Kahne (+5), Marcos Ambrose (+5), Regan Smith (+5), Jeff Burton (-5), Greg Biffle (-6), A.J. Allmendinger (-6)
Changes to Chase Field: NONE
Phat’s System – Standings After Race 17
For an explanation of the points distribution, please see consult table below standings. This distribution is designed to reward race winners, while also rewarding those who run well every week.
With the same top five as the IndyCar system, Kyle Busch finds himself on top for the third points system. In comparing this system to the IndyCar and F1 systems, it is becoming apparent that systems which reward winners have roughly the same position distribution.
Notable changes in position compared to current system: Kasey Kahne (+6), David Ragan (+5), David Gilliand (+4), Ryan Newman (-4), Jeff Burton (-7), Greg Biffle (-8)
Changes to Chase Field: Tony Stewart (IN), Ryan Newman (OUT)
NCAT: Steve Mathews Look To Carry Early Season Success Into Toronto
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[/media-credit]If you look at the season so far, a lot of people are pointing towards Steve Mathews as being the surprise as he has been running well at each track so far this year.
“This season has been full of success and bad fortune,” he said. “We show speed almost everywhere we go, and are a car to contend with at the front of the field, but like anything else every little detail has to go as planned or flawless in order to succeed. I am happy with my showings on the oval tracks, but I admit there is work to be done on the road circuits. I haven’t really reflected on the season too much as of yet as it is still busy and ongoing, the main thing is that it all happens so fast, so you need to be prepared and ready well in advance.”
Despite the lack of success on the road courses, Mathews says he is welcome to the challenge and looks to improve on them.
“I do like the split of ovals and road course races, but as you can tell by my results I seem to like the ovals better,” he said. “The road courses are a new challenge, and in don’t mind having something new to try and master, especially with the racing being so fun on road courses. To be a good driver you need to be diverse, and that means successful on any course or terrain. With my ultimate goal of one day being in the Sprint Cup Series, where there is only 2 road course races, I wish we had more ovals in the Ontario region on the schedule to prepare myself, but it is what it is.”
The New Liskeard, Ontario native got his start in racing at the age of eight in go-karts, though he says the passion was there even before that.
“Ever since I was a little baby I would watch NASCAR with my dad,” he said.”One day we were outside at the beach and it started to rain so we went inside, with our luck the NASCAR race was under rain delay as well. With the rain delay, the television coverage switched to a kart race, and as soon as I saw driver’s helmets coming off and realizing they were kids, I wanted to race. I bugged my dad every summer to race, and he had researched the sport of go-karting and the summer I was turning 8 he put a go-kart magazine in my Christmas stocking and said lets go racing! So began the passion and disease of motorsports racing.”
Through moving up the ranks, there have been certainly a lot of moments to remember, though not one stands out as according to the young driver.
“I have no one moment I can pinpoint as my most memorable racing moment, I remember every moment,” the 20-year-old said. “I have very strong memories in racing from when I started, to my present time, to everything in-between. Every win, and every race is memorable for a certain reason and I intend on having many more memorable moments, including my first NCATS win.”
The experience has also brought forth a bunch of lessons, which Mathews has carried forward with him to work up the racing ladder and work on to become better.
“You learn many lessons in racing, such as: you can’t win the race on the first lap, gain respect from competitors, and patience,” he said. “The latter of the three is what I have been trying to work on, with no shortage of aggressiveness, I am learning to become more patient for the long races. Racing is full of lessons within the sport, as well as in every day life.”
This weekend’s Honda Indy in Toronto marks the 11th start of the Mathew’s young Canadian Tire Series career, though his first at Toronto after running a limited schedule the past two years.
“Heading into the Toronto Indy I am very excited and anticipate and eventful race for the fans,” he said. “Being downtown Toronto is always exciting in its own way, but going speeds of 175mph along the lakeshore is amazing. Heading into Toronto there was plenty of work to be done on the #15 Ford Fusion as it was unfortunately involved in a crash at Mosport causing heavy damage. Therefore, I would like to thank the crew and Bill Mathews Motors/Jack Mathews Body Shop for all the hard work enabling me to have a car to contend this weekend. The track looks fast and tricky, and I believe will will have a car to contend with in the tough NASCAR Canadian tire Series field.”
The Honda Indy Toronto also brings a bit of added pressure as the series will be racing along side of the IZOD IndyCar Series, though Mathews says he doesn’t let it bug him.
“I do not let the added pressure get to me though, once I am in the car there are no other factors that can affect me,” he said. “You need to perform at your best every event no matter how publicized or important it is, because you never know who is watching and what can happen.”
With the success so far, including a top five at Delawere, Mathews knows the first win is coming for the No. 15 Ford Fusion.
“I feel like my first NASCAR win is right in-front of me, and that with hard work and some lady luck I will stumble upon it in no time,” he said. “For a win to happen, all the pieces of the puzzle must fit together, we have been oh so close and I am confident I can secure a win for Mathews Motorsports in the very near future.”
For more information on Steve Mathews, check out , search Mathews Motorsports on Facebook and Youtube and follow Mathews’ on twitter @15Mathews.
