[media-credit name=”Barry Albert” align=”alignright” width=”206″]
[/media-credit]The 2012 Chase for the Sprint Cup field is set. It needed all 400 laps in Richmond, along with some rain and a platter of pit strategy, but the field is set and the playoffs can begin.
Through it all, not much changed. The top 10 drivers were already locked in, Kasey Kahne held onto his first Wild Card spot. Denny Hamlin remains the top seed; his four wins led the way during the regular season.
Hamlin leads Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Brad Keselowski, Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon. Those are the only drivers with a shot at the 2012 Sprint Cup championship. One of those drivers will have their name called on the stage at Homestead in November.
Hamlin has to be the favorite entering the Chase. Along with his four wins, what could have been five on late Saturday night, he has the momentum and confidence. If the saying is true, in order to win a championship you must first lose one, the Virginian has paid his dues. Still well aware of what his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team did in 2010, Hamlin feels this Chase will be much different.
“What took us out of the championship in 2010 really were a lot of different circumstances. I won’t treat it any differently about the way I drive, things like that,” said Hamlin. “I think I’ll be a little bit more aggressive on restarts and not give up those one or two points when they really, really count.
“That will change, but for the most part I think I’ll just be a lot more relaxed this time around. Obviously our stuff is really good right now, as good as it was in 2010. What do you got to lose? We’ve never won a championship. We’re going out there trying to win our first. I’m going to race week-to-week, not think about a championship until I get to Homestead.”
If that’s the case, the field should be worried. Hamlin’s been on fire lately and no team or driver has come close to stopping him. Right now, he’s in control, the only driver that can win on any given weekend, even though there are still whispers that it’s Jimmie Johnson’s title to lose. Sure, the five-time champion will be one to watch, he always is, but it could, and if it does, come down to another Hamlin – Johnson matchup in Homestead, it looks good for roles to be reversed.
It wouldn’t be surprising. That part of the Chase isn’t. Both were expected to be in the field this year and they are. As are all four cars from Hendrick Motorsports, Johnson leading the way in points seeding, Dale Earnhardt Jr. close behind. The sports most popular driver, who made the Chase for the first time in back-to-back years, feels he has a good a shot as anyone to win the championship. .
If consistency wins championships then Earnhardt Jr. and the Diet Mountain Dew crew will be factors. But only if they find the speed and consistency they had to start the year. A top five finish in points shouldn’t be a reach for this team and as Earnhardt Jr. said on Saturday, wins will be needed.
Richmond was a good step in the right direction. Earnhardt Jr. wasn’t any lower than second for the first 160 laps. He and Hamlin were dominating, until suddenly they weren’t and that’s when everything started to change. And change it did, in a big way when it came to the Chase.
Hamlin and Earnhardt Jr. quickly left the picture when they had to pit on lap 282. The wheels then began to turn for the drama of the night to play out. Jeff Gordon, the fourth HMS car to make the Chase, made an incredible comeback to beat out Kyle Busch by one point.
Over the last 100 laps Busch and Gordon traded the second and final Wild Card position with each spot they gained and lost on the track. Busch’s night ended on lap 335 when he had to pit and Gordon went on to finish second. He’s in the 2012 Chase, after starting the season with a black cloud over his 24 team.
But when the leaders in Pocono crashed in front of him, followed by a rainstorm, Gordon was on his way to the Chase. Rain again helping his chances on Saturday when they allowed the team to regroup and refocus on the second half of the race.
Now that Gordon’s in though, will he be a factor? Quick answer is no. There’s a reason he had to fight his way into the Chase, the season hasn’t been one to write home about. He could surprise us, go into the Chase and do what Tony Stewart did last season, but it doesn’t look likely.
And whether it was he or Busch who made the Chase, the sentiment would have been the same. Neither, to this point, has shown they have what it takes to compete with the drivers who have been up front all year long. Except, Gordon, and not Busch, now gets a chance to do so when it matters most.
“I was not very smiling and happy at that rain delay, the one red flag. I was pretty tick off that we got that far behind,” said Gordon afterwards, who celebrated as if he had won the race after climbing from his car. Pumping his arms in the air after finishing second, following the team cutting the chain from the rear sway bar. It enabled Gordon to drive his No. 24 through the field and into the Chase.
“I felt like I won the race tonight. When that was over, they told me I was in the Chase, we made it, I was ecstatic,” Gordon said. “I was going nuts. To me, after you have that kind of effort, fall back, then come up there and finish second, almost win the race, make it in by one point, man, I don’t see any reason why we can’t go over these next 10 races and be a real threat for the championship.”
Then there’s the Michael Waltrip Racing team of Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr. It would be hard to find the two of them on many lists of preseason predictions to make the Chase. But both MWR cars are in and both of them could win the championship. It’s not as far fetched as it may sound; it’s not something that just looks good on paper.
Perhaps lots in the shuffle of setting the Chase field, Bowyer won the race at Richmond. It’s his second win of the year and seeds him sixth heading into Chicago next weekend. Might have been hard to find a happier team and organization than this one after Richmond, the sky’s the limit.
Whereas Bowyer has the wins, Truex could be the stronger threat of the two. Had it not been for evil twists of fate, he could have a pair of wins in 2012 as well. He dominated Kansas only to be passed late by Hamlin. Then last weekend in Atlanta he dominated the last portion of the race only to be done in by a caution with less than five laps to go.
Now there’s no bigger stage for Truex or Bowyer to shine than the Chase. Putting MWR cars into the playoffs for the first time in their history. For those looking for underdogs or dark horses, here they are. These two didn’t sneak into the Chase, nor did they get lucky. They’ve been near the front all year and sat in the top in the top six in points.
The competition knows they’re for real, too. Both Hamlin and Earnhardt Jr. acknowledged on Saturday that MWR will be around for a while, and they’ll be two drivers that will put up a challenge week in and week out.
It’s one of the many storylines of the 2012 Chase, which begins next weekend in Chicago. This Chase fields looks to be one of the most competitive yet with only two of the 12 drivers still winless on the season. Eight of the 12 have never won a Sprint Cup Series championship.
Should one of the drivers who have – Johnson, Stewart, Kenseth or Gordon – win another one it would be historic. Johnson will be one closer to Petty and Earnhardt with six, while Stewart would go back-to-back by winning his fourth. Kenseth, leaving Roush at the end of the season, could prove there’s no such lame duck by wining his second. And Gordon, winning his fifth would breathe new life into the 41-year-old.
Take your pick; it’s going to be a fun 10 weeks.
