[media-credit name=”Dan Sanger” align=”alignright” width=”226″]
[/media-credit]The elite of NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series will return to Arizona’s valley of the sun for Sunday’s running of the AdvoCare 500 at the very challenging, and very flat, Phoenix International Raceway. The potential of this race changing the current status of the Sprint Cup Chase for the Championship is huge.
THE STORY BREAKDOWN
The story, going into the NASCAR weekend at Phoenix, is, of course, the resolution of the 2012 championship and the slim seven points that separates contenders Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski both of whom are five time winners this year. Johnson and his #48 Hendrick Motorsports team are clearly in championship mode and focused on winning their sixth NASCAR title. The fact that this team has won the last two Chase events in a row clearly proves that fact.
Regarding the final two races left on the Chase schedule, Johnson recently said: “the gloves are off, and it’s bare knuckle fighting.”
Meanwhile Keselowski has been a tenacious competitor all season long and is very well aware that winning these next two races are very important to his championship run. In a recent comment he said: “it’s a heads up match going into Phoenix and probably the same thing going into Homestead-Miami. We just have to win the heads up matches.”
The difference maker in the final standings will likely be the collection of NASCAR bonus points. For example: last weekend in Texas Johnson picked three bonus points for winning the race along with one bonus point each for leading a lap and leading the most laps. That’s five of his seven point lead over his rival right there.
Believe it or not there are actually two different mathematical scenarios that says Johnson could clinch the Chase title this Sunday at Phoenix. Be advised that both of them are very far fetched but, none the less, possible.
CHASE CLINCH SCENARIO 1: If Johnson wins at Phoenix and finishes 41 points ahead of Keselowski with the win or 42 points ahead of him without the win and, at the same time, manages to pad his margin over Clint Bowyer, who’s third in the standings, by an additional 12 points, then he would clinch the Chase this Sunday.
CHASE CLINCH SCENARIO 2: If Johnson wins at Phoenix, leads the most laps, Keselowski finishes 37th or worse, Bowyer finishes eighth or worse with neither one of the rivals getting a bonus point for leading a lap then Johnson will be the champion.
Again, all of this is extremely far fetched and not expected to happen. The likely conclusion here is a much anticipated showdown at the Florida based Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 18th.
THE LAS VEGAS BREAKDOWN
So, who’s going to enjoy victory lane fun in the valley of the sun? To get an idea which driver is going to be the first to see checkers at Phoenix, we once again turn to the number crunching professionals from the Las Vegas based World Sports Exchange, (WSE).
In a move that shouldn’t really surprise anyone, Jimmy Johnson tops the WSE’s Phoenix rankings at 4 to 1 odds. That’s because he has a series high four wins there along with 12 top five finishes, 15 top ten finishes and a series topping average finish ratio, (AFR), of 5.3. Johnson is expected to be very tough at Phoenix this Sunday and is a rock solid wager choice.
At 6 to 1 odds you will find championship contender Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin. Keselowski is heavily favored to make his presence felt at Phoenix while making a strong effort to eradicate Johnson’s seven point lead. This is despite his Phoenix numbers which is one top five, one top ten and a very high 22.2 AFR. His individual track numbers has been a topic of discussion for several weeks now and really is a very mute point. Keselowski hasn’t been a Sprint Cup Series driver long enough to accumulate the personal stats that some of the other Cup drivers, such as Johnson, has. He’s has been repeatedly telling us to throw those numbers away. His five wins this year, combined with his championship contender status, says he’s right.
Denny Hamlin won the Phoenix race this past February and looms large as a rock solid wager consideration to get a sweeper win on Sunday. In addition to that win, he also has six top fives, seven top tens and a healthy 10.9 AFR.
All by himself at 8 to 1 odds is Kyle Busch. Tough racing luck kept him out of the 12 man Chase line up. Tough luck has also limited him to a very uncharacteristic one win in 2012. He could easily play the role of spoiler at Phoenix and has the numbers to back up the suggestion. Those numbers include a previous win, a pair of top fives, nine top tens and a respectable 14.0 AFR. Consider this driver to be a worthy long shot wager consideration.
At 9 to 1 odds you will find defending race champion Kasey Kahne who also has a pair of Phoenix top fives along with 5 top tens. However, the 20.0 AFR is a little on the high side.
The WSE’s 12 to 1 group contains a rather interesting quartet featuring Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Clint Bowyer. All four should be considered as long shot wager potential. Gordon has some very good numbers at Phoenix that includes two wins, 10 top fives, 19 top tens and a 10.8 AFR.
Stewart is a previous winner at Phoenix and has compiled some strong numbers there that includes eight top fives, 11 top tens and a very good 11.8 AFR.
Earnhardt is a two time winner at Phoenix with four top fives and eight top tens. However the 18.1 AFR is a little on the high side.
Bowyer has seen his share of struggle at Phoenix over the years. He has a pair of top fives, five top tens and a 16.9 AFR. Having noted that, Bowyer, along with Michael Waltrip Racing, has been one of the true surprises of the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup season. Don’t rule this driver out based on his Phoenix numbers. He could surprise us all this Sunday.
At 15 to 1 odds is the trio of Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin and Martin Truex Jr. Harvick has to be considered as a favorable longshot. He’s a two time winner at Phoenix and has five top fives, nine top tens and a respectable 13.5 AFR. His 2012 season has included struggles with horsepower and handling issues that has kept him out of victory lane but the law of averages says that has to change sooner or later.
Mark Martin also has to be considered as a long shot because of his extremely good Phoenix numbers that includes a pair of wins, 12 top fives, 20 top tens and a very good 9.0 AFR. Also remember that this #55 Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota has had some very strong runs this year.
Martin Truex Jr, who also made the Chase line up for Michael Waltrip Racing, is still looking for that first win of the season he so desperately wants. His Phoenix numbers, a top five, five top tens and a 15.2 AFR, aren’t that strong but that desire to win could make him a longshot factor on Sunday.
The WSE closes its Phoenix favorites list with the trio of drivers from Roush Fenway Racing. Matt Kenseth, a Phoenix winner with five top fives, eight top tens and a 17.9 AFR, is ranked at 20 to 1. So is team mate Greg Biffle who has five top fives, six top tens and a 14.1 AFR at Phoenix. Carl Edwards, rated at 25 to 1, continues to wade through a very frustrating 2012 season. However Phoenix is a potential turn around race for Edwards who will be making his 300th Sprint Cup career start on Sunday. Edwards has a win, six top fives, ten top tens and a 12.6 AFR at the track.
If you do not see the name of your favorite driver on the Phoenix list, that means the WSE has automatically rated them at 10 to 1 odds.
Now for the disclaimer: NASCAR wants us to remind you that these numbers should be regarded for informational and entertainment purposes. They neither encourage nor condone the placing of wagers on their races. However, Sunday’s Phoenix race appears to be a major temptation for many racing fans and gamblers. The WSE listing for this event is loaded with strong potential and multiple long shot considerations. The worse that can happen here is: you might have to tell Santa Claus that it might be the end of January before you can pay him.
THE RACE BREAKDOWN
Sunday’s AdvoCare 500 is 312 laps, 312 miles and 500 kilometers around the Phoenix International Raceway’s one mile oval.
The race has 44 entries vying for the 43 starting berths meaning one of the teams will suffer the misfortune of making the long trip home, all the way across the country, empty handed.
Nine of the race entries are on the go or go home list. These teams are not guaranteed a starting berth in the race because they are currently outside of NASCAR’s top 35 in owner’s points. These teams will have to rely on qualifying speeds to make the race.
The Phoenix International Raceway opened in 1964. The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held in November of 1988 and was won by Alan Kulwicki. Since that time there has been 32 Cup races at Phoenix that has sent 23 different race winners to victory lane. Four of those races have been won from the pole position. 17 have been won from starting positions located in the top ten. Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers with four wins at Phoenix. Hendrick Motorsports leads the team wins at Phoenix with nine followed by Roush Fenway Racing’s six wins.
Ryan “the Rocket Man” Newman has a series high four pole positions at Phoenix. However, it’s Carl Edwards who owns the track qualifying record, 137.279 MPH, set in February of 2011.
The Phoenix International Raceway is basically a flat one mile oval. Turns one and two are banked with 11 degrees while turns three and four only has nine degrees of banking. The speedway’s frontstretch, measuring 1,179 feet, is banked three degrees while the backstretch, 1,551 feet long, is banked with nine degrees. The speedway currently has grandstand seating for 55,000 fans.
Weather could be a factor during the first two days of the Phoenix weekend. Friday’s forecast calls for cloudy skies, 75 degrees with a 20% chance of showers. Saturday calls for partly cloudy skies, a drop in temperature to 64 degrees but only a 10% chance of rain. Sunday race day is expected to be clear with daytime highs at 63 degrees. In the event of some rain, the raceway has a fleet of five jet dryers that can completely dry the track in approximately 90 minutes.
The AdvoCare 500 will be broadcast live by ESPN with the pre race show beginning at 2 pm eastern. Race re-broadcasts will be Monday morning, at 130 am eastern, on ESPN2 and on Wednesday, November 14th, at 12 pm eastern on SPEED.
