Disclaimer: My column this week will be as exciting to read as I anticipate the race being on Sunday afternoon…scroll down for picks.
Kansas Speedway is certainly one of the cookie-cutter races that the Chase schedule has to offer. The variable 17 to 20 degrees of banking in the corners plus the 10 degrees on the frontstretch leaves much to be desired for those looking for an exciting Sunday afternoon of racing. Even though the last two races at Kansas (since the mid-season repave in 2012) produced more cautions than the previous four races combined, they also produced the least amount of lead changes at Kansas speedway since the second ever race at the track back in 2002.
One interesting statistic I was able to uncover this week has to do with Chase races being won by non-Chase drivers. There have been 14 Chase races won by non-Chase drivers in the history of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, that is now 93 total races. Three of those 14 races have been won at Kansas Speedway as Joe Nemechek became the first ever spoiler in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series winning the fall race of 2004 as a non-Chase driver. The other two races by non-Chase drivers were won by Tony Stewart in 2006 and Greg Biffle in 2007, so it has been a while, but with the parody we saw in the regular season, certainly anything can happen on Sunday. With 7 of the top 15 qualifiers for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 being non-Chase drivers, the possibility of a spoiler this week is certainly valid.
Winner Pick
It’s onto my picks already this week and no surprises here, I will be going with Matt Kenseth this week. I couldn’t find a single reason to not pick Kenseth this week, he’s won the last two races at Kansas, he also won at Chicagoland, Kentucky Speedway, and Las Vegas Motor Speedway this season, all which happen to be the tracks most similar to Kansas Speedway.
On top of all the wins at similar tracks this season, Kenseth is second, third, or fourth in 4 of the loop stats, the most important – Driver Rating- he’s third on the list at 110.0. Kenseth also qualified very well on Friday, important because 9 of the 15 Kansas races have been won from starting spots inside the top-10. Kenseth will start seventh on Sunday, and was second in the second practice session on Friday, fourth in Happy Hour earlier today, too much to like here about Kenseth, he’s my Winner Pick for Sunday.
Dark Horse Pick
It’s not every day you can take a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion as a Dark Horse, but because Brad Keselowski is not a part of this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup, I’m going with him as a Dark Horse this weekend. This team has been fairly non-existent since that solid stretch of runs to start the 2013 season, since the series visited Kansas Speedway in particular. Brad was 7th at Chicagoland, the most recent cookie-cutter of the season, his 5th top 10 finish in that 19 race stretch since the April Kansas race, so I’m going on a bit of a hunch here, but I like Brad’s chances this week.
You can not look past the fact that he’s got an average finish of 9.2 in his 7 career races at Kansas Speedway. He’s qualified his Miller Lite Ford Fusion in the 4th starting position and has shown speed in all of the practice sessions at Kansas this week. He was a longer play to start the week, the odds have not shortened a bit, Brad is a solid longer play this week.
That’s all for this week, so until we turn the lights on in Charlotte…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!
