When Matt Kenseth made the move from Roush-Fenway Racing to Joe Gibbs Racing, many thought it would there would be an adjustment period. After all, Kenseth had been driving for the same team and manufacturer for his entire Sprint Cup Series career with the exception of his very first start subbing for an injured Bill Elliott.
It would not take long to quiet the critics. Kenseth found victory lane in just his third start for his new team. He would also follow that up with six more wins. Now the Wisconsin native, who is many credit for causing NASCAR to implement the Chase format, is leading the Chase standings halfway through the ten race playoff.
Kenseth is definitely is the midst of the best season of his career. In addition to the six wins, he has accumulated nine top-5’s, and 17 top-10’s. In 2003, his championship season, he only scored one win, but had 25 top-10’s. The fact that he won the title with just one win, is the reason many think NASCAR created the Chase format.
Kenseth currently has a slim four point lead over five time series champion, Jimmie Johnson. The two, however, have a solid 29 point lead over third place, Kevin Harvick. But there is still. . . . Talladega!
The 2.66 mile superspeedway that is credited with giving several driver their one and only win. However, it is also known for ending the championship hopes of many drivers. The track does not discriminate – it doesn’t matter if you are a mid-pack racer or a popular one. Just Dale Earnhardt Jr. He sat out two races in 2012 due to a concussion received in a crash triggered by Tony Stewart.
When asked about coming back Talladega, Kenseth replied, “Yeah, so Talladega – man, I don’t know. Yeah, I mean obviously the Chase has been pretty good up to this point, so I’m glad to be leading, glad we had a good run last week – got a pretty good finish out of it – and at Talladega, the driver will draft a little bit today, kind of look at the weather and see if we need to put up a lap time or what we need to do. So, that makes practice kind of interesting if there is a threat of rain with everybody trying to lay back and get fast times and do all that.”
Kenseth won this race last fall, but all-in-all, does not have a stellar record at Talladega. In 27 starts, he has just the one win with five top-5’s and nine top-10’s. Fortunately, for Kenseth, Johnson’s record at Talladega is not much better. In 23 starts, he has two wins, and only ten top-10’s.
Both drivers have been extremely strong throughout the first half if the Chase. Kenseth opened the Chase two wins, Johnson followed suit with a win in race three. Kenseth did stumble just slightly at Kansas with an eleventh. Johnson’s worst finish is a sixth in the same race. Ironically enough, third place Kevin Harvick has almost identical stats as the two frontrunners. Harvick has scored one win and ten-10’s in 25 starts.
As Kenseth points out, at Talladega you have more cars to worry about due to a more level playing field – “ the interesting thing about the races here is pretty much any of the 43 cars under the right circumstances could have a shot to win it. You really don’t know what’s going to happen and usually when you go race at Texas you probably can’t say that. So anyway, you just want to, I think, try to figure out how to be one of those cars and certainly I think your guard is up maybe a little bit more than normal.”
It seems as if no driver near the top of the standings has a statistical advantage over the other. Given the nature of this track and the equality in stats. This weekend could lead to one driver having a large lead in the standings, or possibly creating a scenario where as many as five drivers are within striking distance. Either way it is sure to be an exciting race on Sunday in the Camping World RV Sales 500.
