The Final Word – Down to one question: Can Johnson avoid disaster at Homestead?

The fat lady is on stage, the band is ready, the curtain has gone up. All we need now is a nod from the conductor for her to sing her song. Jimmie Johnson finished third at Phoenix. Matt Kenseth had problems, came home 23rd, and the gap between the two leaders is now 28 points. With only 48 left on the table at Homestead, Five Time needs to finish 23rd or better to amend his nickname yet again.

It is not that Phoenix did not have its drama. It did, but it came in dribbles. When Joey Logano nudged Johnson with his fender on the opening lap, some gasped. When Carl Edwards did the same later on, and Jimmie’s car danced toward the wall, they gasped some more. Then they relaxed. While Johnson could move his way to the front, Kenseth had troubles keeping up. 21 cars finished on the lead lap; Kenseth was not amongst them.

What Matt needed was the kind of day Kevin Harvick had. Even if that took place, Kenseth would still be sitting a point back. For Harvick, it marked his fourth win of the season, gave him a six point advantage for the day on Johnson, but left him a distant 34 points back in third place. While Harvick has been averaging a 7th place finish in the nine Chase events, Kenseth has produced an 8th place pace. As for Johnson, his average finish has been 4.7, aided by a 5.8 average start. Only a disaster down in Florida will stop this juggernaut from reclaiming its title.

Rating Phoenix – 6.5/10 – The reason we have announcers for televised events is to enhance the action, to inform and, if need be, to entertain. Phoenix provided such great camera views that the action was enhanced when the seven desk personnel did not say a thing. With Kenseth having his problems, the drama was somewhat diminished, but the action was there for all to see. Yes, sometimes less can indeed be more.

Jimmie Johnson has never won at Homestead in a dozen attempts. His finishes there the past two runs have been 36th last year, 32nd the year before. A repeat of 2012 would truly be a disaster for our leader and Kenseth would win the crown by finishing 7th, while Harvick would need a win. Not impossible and that is why the fat lady has not yet sung her song. However, if I were a betting man…  Enjoy your week.