Today, I’ll be taking a look at Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Kyle Busch, seeds 4-1 on the Sprint Cup Chase Grid.
- Kevin Harvick
The Kevin Harvick/Rodney Childers combination has been, statistically speaking, one of the greatest driver/crew chief partnerships in history. In 96 starts, the pairing has 50 top fives. That’s insane. Over 50 percent of the time, the No. 4 Chevrolet has ended the day in the top five.
In 2015, Harvick had one of the greatest, statistically speaking, seasons in the history of stock car racing. An average finish of 8.7 and 20 top threes, with 28 total top 10s and 2294 laps led. These are numbers not seen since the days of Cale Yarborough in the late 1970s. And remember, this is against fields where 15-20 cars could win on any given Sunday, not five-10 like then.
But, at the end of the day, Harvick ended the season finishing second to Kyle Busch at Homestead. It was a season that looks amazing on a Racing Reference profile page, but it was ultimately tainted by Harvick’s failure to repeat as champion.
Harvick enters this Chase wanting to avenge that loss and continue to build on the Harvick/Childers legacy as one of the greatest driver-crew chief pairings of all time.
Pros
“Happy” Harvick actually has a higher average finish this season, 8.5, than he did all of last season. This team knows how to handle pressure. Every time they have been put in a box in the Chase, like Dover/Talladega last year and Phoenix two years ago, they have always found a way to survive to see another round. Finally, probably Harvick’s biggest asset in the Chase is his utter mastery of Phoenix. In five of the last six Phoenix races, Harvick has won. The one race he didn’t, last year’s fall race, was cut short by rain before Harvick could drive his way back up to the lead and win. If he makes it to round three, he’s making it to Homestead.
Cons
The frustrating part of writing about all of this dominance has been the No. 4’s inability, for the most part, to close in on wins. Harvick could have won seven or eight races last year instead of three if one or two little things hadn’t happened. And finally, this pit crew is just horrible. Harvick had the best car at Dover this year, was arguably the best driver, and had the best pit stall. His pit crew effectively took him out of the race after a terrible pit stop a little over 100 laps in, and he never recovered.
Overall
Expect Harvick to once again make Homestead and once again challenge for a championship. But will he be able to make it all work out and win a second Sprint Cup championship? That’s up to the pit crew to decide, quite frankly.
- Denny Hamlin
In 2010, Denny Hamlin became one of only a very select handful of drivers who led the Sprint Cup point standings heading into the last race of the season only to lose the championship.
Since then, the only two times Hamlin came relatively close to a championship was 2012 and 2014. In 2012, Hamlin won five races but only one of those came in the Chase, and he struggled to sixth in points by season’s end. In 2014, Hamlin drove his way into the final four at Homestead with only one win, at the spring Talladega race. Hamlin was in position to win the race and the championship but faded on a late race restart and finished seventh in the race, third in the championship standings.
In 2016, Hamlin started the season off as well as it could be started, with a win at Daytona. But Hamlin spent the regular season largely being a bit off from his Toyota teammates, falling as low as 13th in the point standings so far before finishing strong; he ended with eight straight top tens and two wins.
Was it a sign of things to come or was it a great run in garbage time, when every other team was more focused on being good in the Chase? We’ll see.
Pros
Some of Hamlin’s best tracks just happen to be in the Chase. The only tracks he hasn’t won at just yet are Dover and Charlotte. For a track many call a wild card track, Hamlin’s Martinsville stats are remarkable. Five wins and an average finish of 9.5 ensures Hamlin can mark his home track off as a great race just by going there. And of course, don’t count out the power of momentum going into the playoffs; it paid off for teammate Kyle Busch last year.
Cons
Honestly, Hamlin hasn’t proven he can perform under a large amount of pressure just yet. Losing a close championship can damage a driver mentally, no matter how much they smile. He still hasn’t won as many races as he did before losing the championship in more time. And as said, he has been behind his Toyota teammates for a lot of the regular season.
Overall
Like Harvick, if Hamlin makes it to round three he’s probably advancing to Homestead. Unlike Harvick, it’s less likely he’s going to be able to compete for a championship there as of now. He’s going to need to sustain this momentum he has coming in, or else he might end up getting eliminated in round two.
- Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski’s 2012 championship, the only time in the last decade that Jimmie Johnson has entered Homestead with a chance at the championship and lost, was the start of a new era in NASCAR.
Keselowski’s championship was the first time since 2006 that there was a first time champion, and it was a triumphant farewell for Dodge, who left NASCAR following the season. Dodge’s farewell left only three manufacturers in the sport, and in 2013 Ford was strengthened by Team Penske’s switch to the blue oval.
Although the team went through growing pains in 2013, by 2014 Keselowski was back in form, winning eight races and more than tripling his laps led from the year before. But Keselowski finished fifth in the point standings. In 2015, he had 25 top 10s but once again didn’t compete for a championship, finishing seventh in the point standings.
Needless to say, Keselowski enters this Chase to prove that his 2012 championship wasn’t a fluke. A second championship would solidify this team as truly one of the premier teams in all of NASCAR.
Pros
Unlike most of the drivers in the Chase, Keselowski has actually won a championship and has dealt with pressure well when he has needed to. He’s Ford’s best hope at a championship unless teammate Joey Logano goes on a tear or multiple miracles happen and Chris Buescher finds himself at Homestead. Finally, Team Penske seems to have found something at restrictor-plate races, with Keselowski himself winning both plate races since Daytona. It’s always a good thing to enter the wild card race of the Chase as the favorite to win.
Cons
Some of Keselowski’s worse races of the season just happened to come at tracks with Chase races. He finished 18th at Texas and 15th at Dover, never really challenging for the win in either race. Keselowski is also pretty well known for rubbing people the wrong way; just last weekend he pissed off Matt Kenseth at Richmond. Looking for a fight isn’t something a driver competing for a championship should be doing. Finally, being on the Ford island may not be a positive for Keselowski; his team has less data than the Toyota or Chevrolet drivers. He and crew chief Paul Wolfe are going to have to be careful not to fall behind in the Chase.
Overall
Keselowski just screams to me as the surprise driver to be out round two this season, as long as he doesn’t win Talladega. He has been great all season, actually leading the points at one point, but everything changes in the Chase. Good drivers get good and other drivers show their hand. No driver in the top three in 2014 in points after Richmond before the Chase reset ended up making it to Homestead; being great in the regular season never guarantees Chase success.
- Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch has finally matured.
The Kyle Busch who would smash guitar trophies in victory lane? Gone. The Kyle Busch who would wreck people under caution because of how frustrated he was with them? Gone. The Kyle Busch who would dominate the regular season and fall in the Chase? Gone.
He has been replaced by a Kyle Busch who can both use his raw driving skill and keep his emotions in check, a Kyle Busch who hasn’t struggled with any real challenges since returning from his major leg injuries in early 2015. Add this driver with a crew chief he meshes wonderfully with and a team at the top of its game, and it has been terrible news for the competition.
Busch heads into the Chase looking for his second straight championship. Can anybody really stop him?
Pros
Busch has shown no signs of a championship hangover. He was one move away from winning the Daytona 500 and has led more laps than any other driver this season. Busch is amazingly versatile; he can win any race on any given weekend. He’s proven this by winning at every single Sprint Cup track save for Charlotte and Pocono. Three of his four wins this season came at tracks with Chase races, Finally, he knows to keep his head in check, as evidenced by last season. He didn’t win a race in the Chase before Homestead and could have tried to force a win and throw away a race, but instead, he quietly raced his way through before winning handily at Homestead.
Cons
Busch hasn’t been the most reliable this year, with five DNFs this season. He also hasn’t been quite as good as he was last year, with a 13.1 average finish (compared to 10.8 last year) with one less win.
Overall
It’s hard not to call Busch the overwhelming favorite to repeat as champion. He’s great everywhere and doesn’t take himself out of races when it matters like he would three or four years ago. If this team can keep up, they could be remembered as even more successful than the Harvick/Childers combination.
