It’s time to make one final trek out west to race in the Valley of the Sun.
This week, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series makes its last trip out west until March to run the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. It will be the 35th race of the season, ninth of the Chase and the final race of the Eliminator Round.
Phoenix International Raceway, being renamed Jeff Gordon Raceway for the Nov. 15 Sprint Cup race, wins the Oscar for the best gift to Jeff Gordon, hands down. The one mile (1.6 km) tri-oval race track located in Avondale, Ariz. opened in 1964 and has been home to NASCAR since 1988 when Alan Kulwicki scored his first of nine career Sprint Cup victories.
In 1995, the track played host to the first ever Truck Series event. That was won by Mike Skinner.
When I came into this sport, the outside wall past the exit of Turn 2 was separated from the rest of the wall. It was similar to the opening on the inside retaining walls that allow emergency vehicles to enter the track when needed. The reason for this was because that’s where the old road course merged with the oval and that was how the haulers previously entered the track.
In 2003, the opening in the wall was closed and an access tunnel was built under Turn 4. This is how the haulers enter the facility today.
In 2011, the track was repaved and reconfigured. The changes included widening the front stretch by 62 feet (19 m), changing the pit stalls from asphalt to concrete and moving the dogleg out by 95 feet (29 m). This has led to drivers “cutting” the dogleg by hitting the apron.
This is the part of my review that brings us to who you should watch this weekend.
Not surprisingly, the odds on favorite at 9/4 is Kevin Michael Harvick (Vegas Insider). In his 25 career starts, he won seven races (the most of any driver plus the most wins he has at any track), 10 top-fives (40 percent), 14 top-10s (56 percent), an average finish of 11th and led over one-thousand laps (1,202).
Since 2012, he’s finished second, first, 13th, first, first, first and first. That’s a 2.7 average finish in the last three years.
In those seven races, he’s led 80, 15, zero, 70, 224, 264 and 224 laps. That’s an average of 126 laps led.
I just can’t pick against the driver of the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet this weekend. I expect him to dominate, win the race and pack his bags for Homestead.
Next up at 5/1 is Brad Keselowski. His stats in the Arizona Desert are fair. In 12 starts, he’s amassed four top-fives, 33.3 percent, and six top-10 finishes (50 percent).
His best runs have been in the last three years beginning with his championship run in 2012. In the last seven races, he’s finished fifth, six, fourth, 11th, third, fourth and sixth. That’s a 5.6 average finish.
In the last seven races, he’s led three, 10, 16, 27, three, zero and 52 laps.
I just can’t picture a scenario in which Keselowski upsets the heavyweight favorite Harvick.
At 6/1 is Joseph Thomas Logano. Trailing the fourth-place Chase cutoff by 63-points, racing his way in isn’t an option. Only a win moves the driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford into the championship race at Homestead.
In 13 career starts, he’s had two top-fives, 15.4 percent, and seven top-10 finishes (53.8 percent).
His best runs naturally have come in his time driving for Roger Penske. In the last five races, he’s finished 26th, ninth, fourth, sixth and eighth. That’s a 10.6 average finish.
In those five starts, he’s led zero, 33, 71, 17 and 35 laps. That’s an average of 31 laps led.
While I wouldn’t doubt his ability to run up front Sunday, like his teammate, I can’t envision him upsetting Harvick. I think Logano comes up short and his team begins making their plans for the 2016 Daytona 500.
The last driver to watch at 8/1 is Kyle Thomas Busch. He currently sits second in the points with a four-point margin over the Chase cutoff.
In 20 career starts, he has one win, three top-fives, 15 percent, and 12 top-10 finishes (60 percent).
In his last six starts (he missed March due to his leg injury), he’s finished sixth, third, 23rd, seventh, ninth and 34th. That’s a 13.7 average finish.
Busch doesn’t have to win to advance to Homestead. He clinches with a finish of third or better, fourth if he leads at least a lap or fifth if he leads the most laps. Given Harvick’s dominance of Phoenix, the last one isn’t likely but I could see him getting up front for one lap.
I expect to see one hell of a 312 lap race at Jeff Gordon Raceway. Tune into the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 Sunday at 2 p.m. on NBC.
You can also hear the radio broadcast on MRN and Sirius XM (subscription required). Joe Moore, Jeff Striegle and 1998 race winner Rusty Wallace will be in the booth. Dan Hubbard will work Turns 1 and 2. Buddy Long will work Turns 3 and 4. Woody Cain, Alex Hayden, Glenn Jarrett and Kyle Rickey will work pit road. The lineup is always subject to change.
