Its time for the Brickyard! The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series makes its annual stop at the one and only racing facility to be designated a National Historic Landmark. IMS was placed on the National Register of Historic Places in 1975, so as everyone knows IMS boasts a plethora of racing history.
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[/media-credit]Following the drivers and teams this week via Twitter has really opened my eyes as to how much the drivers really enjoy the once-a-year trip to Indianapolis.
After spending his off week in France, Jimmie Johnson tweeted Wednesday “It’s one of a few tracks where you truly feel the history of motorsports.” This was one of the infinite number of comments about traveling to IMS this weekend, all eager to strap in and get on the track today.
10-Pick Recap
During my week off from Matty’s Picks, I was able to compile the results of the 10 previous race weekends that I have submitted picks for. I have actually made 15 ‘Winner Picks’ so far this season (including the Sprint Showdown, All-Star Race, All Star Race – Fan Favorite, Indy 500 and occasional Camping World Truck Series, and Nationwide Series Winner Picks). By the numbers:
Winner Picks
4 – Wins
5 – Top 5’s
1 – Top 10’s
4 – Outside Top 10 picks worth zero points
6.8 – Average finish
It’s been since June 19th that I have gone without a Winner Pick in the Top 10, stringing together 6-straight, with just one finish outside the Top 5. My current hot streak of Winner Picks includes two wins – both at Kentucky Speedway and both courtesy of Kyle Busch.
Dark Horse Picks
0 – Wins
2 – Top 5’s
2 – Top 10’s
6 – Outside Top 10 worth zip
16.1 – Average finish
When I compiled the numbers, I thought initially that my Dark Horse average was less than impressive – with an average finish of 16.1. I went back and examined some similar numbers such as Jimmie Johnson’s Career average finish of 11.7, Dale Jr’s average finish this season at 14.0, and even Fireball Roberts’ career average finish of 13.2 and determined that if I want to become the ‘Nostradamus of NASCAR’, I’ve still got some work to do.
All in all, I am not having a bad rookie season of Matty’s Picks but there is surely some room for improvement – particularly with my Dark Horse picks. I am excited to begin re-visiting tracks for the second time in the 2011 Sprint Cup Schedule, with the goal of learning from my mistakes earlier in the season.
Brickyard 400 Picks
Closely examining historical statistics this week for both my Dark Horse and Winner Picks, I have decided to follow the Chevrolet trend at IMS. With the last 8 races being won by a driver in a Chevrolet in Indianapolis, the stats speak for themselves. Furthermore, 12 of the 17 NASCAR Sprint Cup Races at the Brickyard have been won by Chevys. How can I bet against them?
Dark Horse Pick
My Dark Horse Pick this week has drank the milk in Victory Lane at IMS, but has never felt the warm rubber and salty taste of the Yard of Bricks against his lips.
He led 86 laps last year and a record-setting 116 laps in 2009, the most ever by any non-winner at Indianapolis. In the 2009 Allstate 400 at the Brickyard, Juan Pablo Montoya was running away with victory, leading 90 of 91 laps when a pit-road speeding penalty crushed all chances of victory. Last Year, Montoya lead a race-high 85 laps before a collision with Dale Jr on lap 146 ended his chances for victory in a stock-car at IMS.
With his storied history at IMS, Montoya seems more like a Winner Pick to me this week, but never having won on an oval, JPM qualifies for my Dark Horse pick for purposes of this column. The 2000 Indy 500 winner has victory within his grasp this year and will break through for his first oval win of his stock car racing career on Sunday.
Winner Pick
After compiling the data, I must admit that I am astounded that in 15 Winner Picks, I have not picked him as the winner yet. (Already making strides at becoming ‘The Nostradamus of NASCAR’) This is probably why my Winner Pick average is not inside the Top 5…
My goal this week is to earn some brownie points with my girlfriend by picking her favorite driver; and not by coincidence is he more deserving of a Winner Pick this week.
Jimmie Johnson has compiled 3 wins at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, winning all 3 in the past 5 races. He started second last year, and judging by his practice speeds, Ol’ 5-Time will have a decent starting spot again this year at a track where the race-winner averages a starting spot of 9.4. Only 3 times has the winner of the Brickyard 400 come from the 20th starting spot or worse, meaning IMS does not foster a fair amount of passing.
Following the moderate blow up at New Hampshire, Chad Knaus has the #48 crew whipped into shape and ready to go mistake-free on Sunday afternoon. Watch for the #48 team to redeem themselves from their mishaps at Loudon and help to put Jimmie Johnson in Victory Lane at the Brickyard.
I do enjoy following @JimmieJohnson on #Twitter. I’ve learned by following him about a 3-drink Twitter rule imposed on him, which I’ve found he tends to violate from time to time. If you don’t follow Jimmie or don’t have a Twitter account, I suggest you look into it as it adds a bit of a joy to my life.
It’s a little tough picking against a guy that has won 4 times and holds records for most wins (4), most poles (3), most Top 5’s (9), most Top 10’s (13), and most laps led (440) in Jeff Gordon (thanks for the advice Uncle Ed, but you can only lead a horse to water). But, I have gained my brownie points for the week and will be interested to see the comments from the few “regular” Matty’s Picks readers I do have.
I am excited to start the stretch towards the Chase and improve upon my less than impressive stats as ‘The Nostradamus of NASCAR’.
Until next time…You stay classy NASCAR NATION!
