The announcement of a change to the distribution of points across NASCAR national series sparked debate among even the most conservative NASCAR fans. One of the explanations behind the change was to develop a more dramatic points battle to increase fan interest.
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[/media-credit]A debate arose over the fact that a quick calculation would show that very little, if anything, would change in the final championship standings. In fact, even among the more common point distributions across all major racing series, by the end of the season there did not appear to be much of a difference in the order of the final standings.
Over the course of the season it became evident that there was not a significant difference between the old points system and the new system, save for a stronger reliance on consistency over victories. Below are the final standings for using the three different points systems, as well as a comparison as to how a Chase would have unfolded
Classic System – http://phatstats.blogspot.com/2011/11/classic-points-system-2011-final.html
Classic System w/ Chase – http://phatstats.blogspot.com/2011/11/classic-points-system-2011-final_26.html
While the new points system lead to one of the most nail biting season finales in the history of the sport, had we been using the 2010 points system the Ford 400 would not have been as tense. Tony Stewart would have entered Homestead with a comfortable 40 point lead over Carl Edwards, begging the question how differently would have Stewart driven in the race knowing he was on the defense.
Except for Jeff Gordon leap frogging Dale Earnhardt Jr for seventh, the Chase drivers finished in the same order. In fact the majority of the top thirty were in the same order, with only a few instances of drivers swapping in order.
F1 System – http://phatstats.blogspot.com/2011/11/f1-system-final-standings.html
F1 System w/ Chase – http://phatstats.blogspot.com/2011/11/f1-system-final-standings-chase-edition.html
No system rewards high finishes better than the Formula 1 points distribution and in this case the Championship outcome would have been far different. With Stewart ending the regular season in 11th in points, and with Dale Earnhardt Jr ending up 13th, Marcos Ambrose and David Ragan would make their first Chase. Ambrose’s hot finish in the season would culminate in his first top ten points finish. Carl Edwards would have to thank Brian Vickers for his first Cup championship, barely edging Matt Kenseth by ten points.
Naturally the standings are more jumbled compared to how things actually turned out. Some food for thought, had Stewart made this Chase he would have scored 450 points, easily out distancing Edwards by 52 points or two full races.
IndyCar – http://phatstats.blogspot.com/2011/11/indycar-system-2011-final-standings.html
Indycar w/ Chase –http://phatstats.blogspot.com/2011/11/indycar-system-2011-final-standings_26.html
The IndyCar system is more of an even split between the F1 and NASCAR system, and the final results reflect a mixture of the two. Again, Stewart and Earnhardt Jr would barely miss out on the Chase with Ambrose and Ragan earning berths. Here Kenseth would have a more comfortable margin of 38 points over Kenseth, with the rest of the Chase contenders almost mirroring their F1 finishing positions.
And, in yet another case of coulda-shoulda, had Tony Stewart made this Chasehe would have scored 1867 points, besting Carl Edwards by 56 at the seasons end.
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So after a year of tracking different types of point systems in NASCAR most prominent series, what have we discovered? Maybe not so surprisingly the system devised ultimately does not affect who the champion would be. In all systems without a Chase, Carl Edwards easily came home the victory. In the systems with a Chase, Edwards won the championship only three times, but only because Tony Stewart was left out due to the new Wild-Card format.
Even looking beyond the series champion, the order of the rest of the field remained relatively the same. The F1 system provided the most extremes in differences, yet as a whole it truly did not vary a great deal when compared to others.
Maybe all the energy debating what is truly the best system to crown a champion is irrelevant. Maybe time could better be spent attempting to explain why a particular driver did not win the championship rather than blaming it on the system. And maybe, just maybe, one of Brian France’s ideas wasn’t so bad at after all.
Just maybe…
