Hot 20 over the Chase six – Past 10 matters little to Johnson, as it is all about the 6 since Richmond and the 4 to come

Usually, one gets a general perspective on how a driver has been performing recently by taking a look at his past ten efforts. Ten, a nice round number that just so happens to also be the exact number of races in the Chase. You would think, barring adjustments for pre-Chase bonuses, it might give you an idea how things are going for those chasing a championship. You would think.

That was before Jimmie Johnson sandbagged the final four pre-Chase events.  In those races, Johnson picked up a whopping 33 points. That is the same as he got last week finishing 13^th at Talladega. Matt Kenseth, in those same four races, earned 148 points. Then they leveled the playing field. However, before anyone moans how unfair the Chase is to the season’s best, it actually has penalized Johnson and benefited Kenseth.  Remember, before the re-jig, Kenseth was in fifth place, 35 points behind Carl Edwards and 34 in arrears of Johnson, who was still second despite his pre-Chase problems. If not for the Chase, the standings would have Johnson leading Harvick by 33, with Kenseth third 41 back. So, the right guy is leading the way, albeit by 4 Chase points.

As for being hot or not with four races to go in the season, it comes down to room for growth. As we replace the results from Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond with those coming from Martinsville, Fort Worth, Phoenix, and Homestead, Kenseth can better his total by no more than 44 points. Johnson can better his by 159.

What that does, however, is make the hot 20 over the past ten races rather meaningless, with Kenseth presently 108 points better than the 15^th ranked Johnson. Compress it down to the six Chase races to date and it becomes clear who indeed leads the way.  The ten race average will again become meaningful, but not before Homestead. Thanks a bunch, Jimmie.

Here is a look at our hottest 20 drivers over the course of the Chase…