Let’s be honest. Trying to predict which eight drivers will make it through the characteristic chaos of Talladega Superspeedway to advance to the Eliminator Round of the Chase is next to impossible. With only 25 points separating the top eight contenders and the looming likelihood of the almost inevitable “big one,” the only thing certain is that no one is safe – except Joey Logano.
After winning the first two races of the Contender Round, Logano is the only driver guaranteed to advance to the next round. Second place driver, Denny Hamlin, is only 13 points behind Logano. While that would seemingly make him a safe bet to move forward in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, Talladega has a way of shaking things up.
Just ask Kyle Busch who arrived at Talladega last year with a 26-point cushion and only had to finish in the 24th position to advance. Busch, however, was caught up in a wreck and finished 40th, missing the cutoff by seven points.
With that said, as the numbers stand, this is what each driver in the Contender Round must do to capture a top-eight spot and lock into the Eliminator Round. Please keep in mind that these numbers are only a starting point, subject to the twists and turns of Talladega restrictor plate racing.
Denny Hamlin: 14th and no laps led; 15th and at least one lap led; 16th and most laps led
Kurt Busch: Eighth and no laps led; ninth and at least one lap led; 10th and most laps led
Carl Edwards: Seventh and no laps led; eighth and at least one lap led; ninth and most laps led
Kevin Harvick: Third and no laps led; fourth with a lap led
Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski: Second or better; third and at least one lap led; fourth and most laps led
Martin Truex Jr.: Second and no laps led; third and most laps led
Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth: Only a win guarantees advancement to the Eliminator Round.
Notes:
1) Dale Earnhardt Jr. has the top driver rating (92.8) at Talladega and is tied with Jeff Gordon for most wins of active drivers with six victories. He has two restrictor plate victories this season, Talladega in May and the July race at Daytona. If he wins Sunday, he will be the first driver to have three plate wins in a single season since his father did so in 1990.
2) NASCAR announced this week that they will reduce the number of attempts at a green-white-checkered finish, from three to one.
Steve O’Donnell, NASCAR Executive Vice President and Chief Racing Development Officer, explained the reason for the change, stating, “In the event the race goes beyond the advertised distance due to a caution, we will use a single attempt at a green-white-checker finish. We take very seriously the responsibility of balancing exciting finishes and safety. We’re confident that this is a positive direction for both.”
The CampingWorld.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway will be televised this Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN. Tune in as 12 become 8 in the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship.
