Phoenix Cup Series odds and statistics

The NASCAR Cup Series heads into Phoenix Raceway this weekend for the Ruoff Mortgage 500.  Kyle Larson is atop the Cup series standings at 113 points and a six-point lead over Martin Truex Jr.  Joey Logano is in third place, Austin Cindric fourth, and Kyle Busch rounds out the top-5.

Based on the last 34 races (2005 – 2021), Kevin Harvick has the most wins with nine and a series-best average finish of 7.735.  Harvick also has nine wins, 18 top-5s, 27 top-10s, and two poles, making him one of the favorites to run upfront and possibly win the race.

Another top contender would be Kyle Busch that also has good numbers at Phoenix.  Busch has three wins, 12 top-5s, 23 top-10s, four poles, and an average finish of 10.848.

Martin Truex Jr. won the spring race on March 14, 2021, and has six top-5s, 14 top-10s, and two poles with an average finish of 14.969.

Notable Stats and Information:

  • Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman lead the Cup Series in starts at Phoenix with 38 starts each.
  • Chase Elliott leads the Cup Series in average starting position at Phoenix with a 4.500 in 12 starts.
  • Kyle Busch (2006, 2012, 2016, 2019) lead the Cup Series in poles for active drivers at Phoenix with four.
  • Busch is also the youngest Phoenix pole winner at 20 years, 11 months, 20 days.
  • Five different manufacturers have won the Cup Series pole at Phoenix.  Chevrolet with 19, Ford with 15, Toyota with seven, Dodge and Pontiac with four poles.
  • Harvick leads the Cup Series in wins at Phoenix with nine victories (2006 sweep, 2012 Playoff race, 2013 Playoff race, 2014 sweep, 2015 Spring race, 2016 Spring race, 2018 Spring race).
  • Harvick won the 2012 race from the 19th starting position, making it the farthest back an active Cup Series race winner has started at Phoenix.
  • Kyle Busch is the youngest Cup Series Phoenix winner at 20 years, 6 months, 11 days.
  • Four different manufacturers have won a Cup Series at Phoenix, led by Chevrolet with 25 victories, followed by Ford with 17, Toyota with seven, and Pontiac with two wins. 

Be sure to check out the weekend schedule for the race TV and start times.

According to OddsChecker, Kyle Larson is expected to win this weekend.  He’s given +350 odds, or an implied 22.2% chance to win the race.

Quote from OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman, “Larson is the clear favorite to win this race, but oddsmakers are taking the competition seriously. For only the second time this season, oddsmakers see a competitive race. This isn’t as competitive as the Daytona 500 odds, but 6 racers being given better than an 11% chance to win is nothing to sneeze at.” 

Driver Odds Implied chance 
Kyle Larson +350 22.2% 
Martin Truex Jr. +750 11.8% 
Kyle Busch +750 11.8% 
Denny Hamlin +800 11.1% 
Chase Elliot +800 11.1% 
Joey Logano +800 11.1% 
Ryan Blaney +1200 7.7% 
William Byron +1400 6.7% 
Kevin Harvick +2000 4.8% 
Christopher Bell +2500 3.8% 

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of


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