At the end of August, Max Verstappen’s F1 World Championship defence looked dead in the water. After a disappointing ninth-place finish at the Hungarian Grand Prix, the reigning four-time champion was an afterthought, 97 points adrift of Oscar Piastri and a whopping 66/1 outsider to claim a fifth straight world title. Well, what a difference six race weekends make.
While bookmakers, fans, and the paddock alike were all eulogizing Verstappen’s four-year reign, instead of foaming at the mouth over a McLaren civil war between Lando Norris and the aforementioned Piastri, Super Max quietly went about his business. Formula One’s coldest-eyed operator bent adversity to his will: six straight podiums, three of those being emphatic wins, and a terrifying cut of the points deficit down to just 36 with four rounds to play. Online betting sites aren’t writing him off anymore.
The popular Bovada betting site has slashed on a miraculous Verstappen title triumph from 66/1 down to 7/2, still the third favorite, but only narrowly behind 9/4 Piastri and 7/10 frontrunner Norris. As that dramatic odds shift suggests, both McLaren men should beware of the rampaging Dutchman. And here are four more reasons why.
Happy Hunting Grounds
Forget the hype—just scan the circuits that will decide this championship and you’ll see Verstappen’s shadow looming large. Brazil’s Interlagos is next up, and here is where the Red Bull man conjured up magic last season, slicing his way from 17th on the grid through rain, spray, and nerves to clinch arguably the finest win of his career, a win which catapulted him to yet another title.
Then comes the decider at Abu Dhabi, a grand prix Verstappen annexed for four consecutive years between 2020 and 2023. Remember the 2021 controversy, with Super Max taking full advantage of some questionable decision-making from the now-disgraced race director Michael Masi to overtake Lewis Hamilton on the final lap and claim his first world title. Or what about his record-breaking effort in 2023, where Verstappen’s 19th victory of the campaign set a record that may never be broken?
Indeed, two of the final four races will take place at Verstappen’s strongholds. Sandwiched in between come Las Vegas and Qatar, two places where Verstappen holds victories – including each of the most recent two in the latter – while his McLaren rivals do not. Ominous indeed.
Red Bull’s Single-Minded Synergy
Perhaps the most underappreciated Verstappen weapon? The unshakeable unity of the Red Bull camp. This is a squad that obsesses over detail, gives no quarter to politics, and pours every ounce of resource into Verstappen. Team principal Laurent Mekies engineers strategy following the departure of long-time boss Christian Horner, while Pierre Waché fine-tunes operations—no confusion, no hesitation, no internal rivalry.
Contrast this with McLaren’s balancing act. Their season-long mantra of driver equality and so-called “Papaya Rules” faces its true test now: when millions, legacies, and a place in history are at stake, can they maintain it? Already, strategy calls are laced with tension, team radio betrays anxiety, and split priorities risk undermining both drivers.
The strategic gap: Red Bull will always say “Max first.” For McLaren, even split-second indecision could cost them everything. If a safety car appears, if tire degradation spikes, it will be Red Bull’s sharp instincts and whatever it takes mentality that swings the pendulum.
Saturday Supremacy
Pole position is the tactical king, and Verstappen is this season’s qualifying emperor: Seven poles, more than either Norris or Piastri. In an era of street races and traffic-choked layouts—see Las Vegas and Lusail, where passing is a contact sport—track position writes the script.
What does qualifying dominance deliver? Strategic freedom. Verstappen escapes the DRS train, he dictates stints, and with his team’s rapid-fire pit work, he turns clean air into weekend-defining margins. Meanwhile, the McLarens—so strong on Sundays—risk spending their opening laps buried in traffic, exposed to mistakes and the unpredictable midfield.
Numbers don’t lie: Since 2022, over 70% of grand prix winners at Abu Dhabi and Qatar have started from the front row. Verstappen, almost always in that mix, knows how to turn Saturdays into silverware.
Mental Edge
Verstappen is not just a champion behind the wheel—he is a master psychologist in a helmet. His 2025 run may be his most complete campaign yet, title or not. All year long, the Dutchman has suffocated rivals with icy calm: post-session radio snippets, stinging soundbites about McLaren’s tactics, a relentless refusal to show nerves. He forces opponents to second-guess themselves.
Lando Norris has already shown the cracks notable in last season’s title battle between the two, where he publicly conceded the unstoppable nature of Verstappen’s charge, privately nursing the scars of late losses. Indeed, the Brit was beaten mentally as much as he was physically, allowing Super Max to romp to a fourth straight world title, despite the fact that his rival was in a faster car.
This year, the gap between the two machines is even wider, but still Verstappen remains in contention. As Piastri and Norris edge ever closer in the standings—just a solitary point between them—the threat of an internal implosion becomes real. Each pitwall call, each team meeting, teeters into mind games and doubt. Verstappen will do everything in his power to exacerbate that rift and then some. That could well be the difference between a runners-up medal and being crowned champion of the world… again.
