After a bye week for me, I’m back with another round of Matty’s Picks. We’re still in the desert this week, and I’m hoping my results this week are better than my dismal performance last week at Las Vegas. It was dead last for me last week at Las Vegas on the CNY Race Fans’ Scorecard…
I’ll make my weekly recap quick because there was nothing really to highlight last week. I had Jimmie Johnson who started 9th, led 45 laps, but had tire trouble and finished 41st. My next hope was Joey Logano, who started 2nd, led 47 laps and finished 10th for 35 points. Kasey Kahne started inside the second row, but got tangled up in a crash with my fourth pick, Carl Edwards who led a couple laps after starting 14th. Kahne was able to return to the race and squeak out a 17th place finish, Edwards however exited the race after the collision with Kahne and finished 42nd. Trevor Bayne, my filler guy, actually netted me my third-most points last week by starting 35th and finishing 28th. When it was all said and done, 92 points is all I could show for myself last week, probably a good idea I was on a bye week from writing.
We’re onto the second of the three-race west coast swing this week, and the stop is in Phoenix, Arizona for the CampingWorld.com 500 this week. Now for my quirky fact of the week…The race distance is not 500 miles this week, but 500 kilometers, making the races at Phoenix the only oval races on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule where the race distance is measured by anything other than miles or laps. Starting position is much less important this week than a couple weeks back at Atlanta, as over half of the 37 races at Phoenix have been won from starting spots outside the top 10, including 6 of the last 10 races at the one mile tri-oval in the desert. Lets roll right into my picks this week…
1. Kevin Harvick – $13,800 – 3/1 odds
If you’re playing the odds this week, you’re not getting a bargain, but if you’re playing fantasy, Harvick is a must start this week. Harvick has won the last three races at Phoenix International Raceway (PIR) and four of the last five. He’s tallied six career victories at the track, and will roll off from the top spot on Sunday after claiming the pole on Friday Afternoon in knockout qualifying. Not much to dislike here fantasy-wise, I’ll be paying the hefty ticket price for Harvick this week.
2. Denny Hamlin – $12,100 – 12/1 odds
Generous 12 to 1 odds right now which surprises me for a guy who has top fives in four of the last six races at Phoenix. Hamlin will roll off 25th on Sunday, so in fantasy formats where points are gained for finishing differential, there is a lot of potential for Hamlin to pick up points for spots gained throughout the race. The only statistic against Hamlin this week is the 20+ races it’s been since a driver has won a race at Phoenix from a starting spot outside the top twenty.
3. Jimmie Johnson – $10,700 – 8/1 odds
Before the reign of Harvick started at Phoenix, it was Johnson-land in the desert…. Johnson swept the 2008 races at the one-miler, and has wins in 2007 and 2009 to add to his impressive resume at PIR. Johnson boasts the top Driver Rating of 114.0 and also boasts the series-best Average Running Position (7.4), Fastest Laps Run (609), Average Green Flag Speed (126.428 mph), and Laps in the Top 15 (5,403) to add to his average finish of 7.7 at PIR. Pretty much a must-start this week, especially because he’ll roll off 20th and has the opportunity to rack up points for finish differential.
4. Kurt Busch – $7,600 – 33/1 odds
A bargain pick this week for me…..33/1 odds and only $7,600 this week! There’s no guy out there more hungry than Kurt Busch to get behind the wheel and drive this weekend, after missing his hometown race last week due to his indefinite suspension. SpeedwayMedia.com Editor, Ed Coombs published a candid column earlier this week about this guy, and to me, we know the Stewart-Haas camp has the speed to win races given the success of Kevin Harvick over the past 13 months. Kurt Busch has claimed top 10’s in three of the last five Phoenix races, and he was quickest in Saturday’s first practice at PIR. Kurt will roll off 8th on Sunday, matching his best start in the past two seasons at Phoenix.
5. Brett Moffit – $5,000 – “Field”, 200/1 odds
Moffit is inexpensive and an extreme longshot this week, but the field is so top-heavy this week, it only makes sense to take a driver starting towards the rear, with only potential to move forward. Keep in mind, Moffit netted a top-10 a couple weeks back at Atlanta in the No. 34 car, so this isn’t just a throw away pick. He’s looking to show he deserves a full-time ride in this series, and is looking to get Front Row Motorsports back in the top-10.
That’ll do it for this week, so until we head for the land of stardom, You Stay Classy NASCAR Nation!
