In what’s been an extremely entertaining, drama-filled offseason, it’s finally time for me to make Playoff predictions in December that everyone will be laughing at by June. So again, please don’t revisit this article after the regular season finale.
Virtual Locks (These Guys Are Shoe-ins)
Cole Custer, No. 00 Ford Mustang, Stewart Haas Racing
After being relegated to the Xfinity Series, Cole Custer did what many fans thought he could do; he went out and proved that he still belongs in the upper echelons of NASCAR. Custer won thrice in 2023 en route to his first Xfinity Series championship and will try to repeat in 2024 to prove to the racing world that he deserves another chance in the Cup Series. I think he wins two or three in the regular season and is postseason-bound by week five or six.
AJ Allmendinger, No. 16 Chevrolet Camaro, Kaulig Racing
Kaulig may have the most exciting lineup of any multi-car team in any NASCAR series next year. AJ Allmendinger and Shane Van Gisbergen are all but guaranteed to be contenders at every road course, and Allmendinger is essentially a lock to be a part of the postseason field. While still looking for his first Xfinity Series championship, he’s a three-time regular season champ and is coming off a Cup Series win at the Charlotte Roval. As far as championship picks go, he’s a popular one.
Justin Allgaier, No. 7 Chevrolet Camaro, JR Motorsports
Similar to fellow veteran Matt Crafton, Allgaier is 8-8 in terms of making the Playoffs. Unlike Crafton, however, he has failed to bring home a championship in his six Championship 4 appearances, but he’s always advanced through at least one round. While nobody is guaranteed to ever win a championship, Allgaier is about the safest bet you could possibly have to make the postseason, simply because he’s never missed it.
Sam Mayer, No. 1 Chevrolet Camaro, JR Motorsports
Would I have made this pick a year ago? Absolutely not. But a month after Mayer won four times, and twice in the clutch, it feels like I have to. Add in his first Final 4 appearance, and Mayer is riding on as much momentum as any non-champion in the sport right now. It’ll take 10 races at the most before Mayer is locked into the 2024 Playoffs.
Austin Hill, No. 21 Chevrolet Camaro, Richard Childress Racing
Hill is another driver I’m not sure I would’ve considered a lock before the start of last season, but he proved myself and everyone else wrong. Despite missing the Championship 4 and the infamous RCR meltdown at Martinsville, Hill compiled four wins and 24 top 10s in 2023, not bad at all for a guy who was thought to only be a superspeedway specialist heading into the season. I would be shocked if he’s not locked in after the first 2 races of the year at Daytona and Atlanta.
Feeling Pretty Good…
Sammy Smith, No. 8 Chevrolet Camaro, JR Motorsports
While he only won one race last season, Sammy Smith showed how much raw talent and potential he has by absolutely whipping the field in their first trip to Phoenix last March. Inconsistency was a problem at times, as he only compiled 15 top 10s, and that will be his biggest adversary en route to a Playoff spot. Despite this, I see him getting in with a victory around the halfway mark of the regular season, if not before.
Riley Herbst, No. 98 Ford Mustang, Stewart-Haas Racing
Herbst broke out in a big way last season, but it was just a little too late for him to make a run at the championship. It figures that the first year he misses the Xfinity Series Playoffs, he heats up in crunch time. The win in Vegas and a subsequent second-place finish at Homestead laid the groundwork for what many expect to be his breakout season in 2024. If Herbst can’t get to Victory Lane, he’ll be consistent enough to point his way in.
Chandler Smith, No. 81 Toyota Supra, Joe Gibbs Racing
The first JGR car to appear on this list, Smith collected his first Xfinity Series win at Richmond last spring, and nearly won at Las Vegas in the third race of the season before a last-lap pass by Austin Hill thwarted his plans. Smith brings a boatload of talent to an organization primed to have its best year of Xfinity Series competition yet. Like Sammy Smith, inconsistency plagued him at times in 2023, (only 13 top 10s in 33 races) but when he showed up, he was likely to be the class of the field. He’ll be back in Victory Lane at least once, if not more, in 2024.
Sheldon Creed, No. 18 Toyota Supra, Joe Gibbs Racing
Like Austin Hill, many will remember Sheldon Creed’s 2023 campaign for the Martinsville Meltdown, which he admittedly got the rougher side of. Now with a new team, Creed is looking for his first Xfinity Series win and a second consecutive Playoff berth. He’s seemingly lost in every way possible, so I don’t think he really cares where or how he breaks through into Victory Lane.
By The Skin Of Their Teeth…
Parker Kligerman, No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro, Big Machine Racing
Kligerman impressed a lot of fans last season by making the Playoffs, and I think he will do so again. He was relatively close to a win on a couple of occasions, but I think he and the No. 48 team will squeak by into the postseason for the second consecutive year. Don’t rule out a win though – Kligerman very nearly won at Atlanta last year before spinning backward across the line to finish third.
Brandon Jones, No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro, JR Motorsports
It’s completely understandable to doubt Brandon Jones after a poor showing in 2023. But in his second year with JRM, I expect Jones to take a big step forward. I don’t think he will win a race, but better speed at the end of 2023 serves as a preview of what Jones can do. Behind all the pay driver jokes is a young driver who still has a ton of talent. Lest we forget he straight-up beat Kyle Busch one-on-one at Phoenix in 2020. I think Jones will have to scrap for his Playoff spot in 2024, but his “big race” experience outweighs that of his bubble competitors, and its value can’t be understated.
And Finally…
Shane Van Gisbergen, No. 97 Chevrolet Camaro, Kaulig Racing
Accuse me of recency bias, buying into the hype, or whatever else you want to call it, but so long as Kaulig provides him with good race cars, SVG will be competitive. I put him in this category because it’ll be close on points unless he can win at a road course, which is a definite possibility. No disrespect intended towards Josh Williams, Hailie Deegan, Brett Moffitt, or any other bubble drivers, but the talent of SVG will be too much for them to overcome.
Just A Bit Outside…
Josh Williams, No. 11 Chevrolet Camaro, Kaulig Racing
Williams brings personality and a great work ethic to Kaulig, but is there top-level talent to match the top-level equipment? No disrespect to Williams, who has made do with sub-par equipment, but 11 top 10s in 186 career Xfinity Series races doesn’t scream Year 1 Playoff driver to me. Hopefully, Williams proves me wrong, but I’ll wait till 2025 to put NASCAR’s favorite valet in the postseason.
Jesse Love, No. 2 Chevrolet Camaro, Richard Childress Racing
The raw talent is there. The equipment is there. The team is there. But three Truck Series starts is Love’s only experience in the top three series of NASCAR. I understand why RCR went with him, as he has the potential to be NASCAR’s next superstar, but a lack of experience in big moments keeps him out of the Playoffs in 2024. Stay tuned for 2025, though, where I think he’ll be a championship contender. Don’t expect the 2023 ARCA champ (and 10-time race winner) to stay quiet for very long.
Hailie Deegan, No. 15 Ford Mustang, AM Racing
I’ve been pretty critical of Deegan’s lack of results in good Truck Series equipment, but that 2022 Las Vegas Xfinity race, in which Deegan finished 13th in her NXS debut driving for SS Greenlight, can’t be ignored. It’s only one race, but if Deegan takes to the Xfinity Series quickly, she could prove me wrong and be a contender. Similar to Jesse Love, however, she doesn’t have much “big race” experience, which could prove costly once the bubble battle heats up in August and September.
Jeb Burton, No. 27 Chevrolet Camaro, Jordan Anderson Racing
Jeb Burton was frustrating to watch last season. The win at Talladega was nice, but it’d be great if he could show that he can win at the non-superspeedways as well. That victory at Talladega was his only top-five and just six top 10s meant he was easily disposed of in the Round of 12. If Burton wants to point his way in, he’ll need to minimize DNFs and find creative ways (such as pit strategy) to jump ahead of the usual contenders on the racetrack.
Next Four Out: Jeremy Clements, Ryan Sieg, Ryan Ellis, Brennan Poole
So, there you have it. Sixteen more predictions that will likely all be ruined by race six or seven. Again, I ask you to please not revisit this article after the Xfinity Series regular-season finale to see how incredibly wrong I was.
Here’s to another fantastic year of the NASCAR Xfinity Series!
