Shane van Gisbergen’s 2024 season could easily be one of the most influential in NASCAR history. His results will likely alter the future of NASCAR in a big way, and I’m here to give an unsolicited prediction on how he will fare. SVG will run a limited schedule in the Cup Series, so let’s start there, go through it race by race, and predict how he will do.
Circuit of The Americas, March 24: Finish Prediction – 10th-15th
While his most memorable moment of last year was winning Chicago, van Gisbegergen followed up his win in the Windy City with a solid 10th-place run at the Indianapolis road course. I think he’ll run about the same in Austin, and if there’s late-race chaos for the third straight year, he could have an outside shot at pulling off another upset win.
Talladega, April 21: Finish Prediction: 15th-20th
I think Trackhouse will bring SVG a good race car, and if he can learn quickly, he’ll be in the lead draft late in the going. That’s really all you can ask for in a modern superspeedway race, and I think if SVG stays out of trouble, he can count his first Talladega race as a success.
Coca-Cola 600 (Charlotte) May 26: Finish Prediction – 25th-30th
Van Gisbergen may run well for a portion of this race, but asking him to run 600 mistake-free miles in his first (normal) oval race in the Cup Series is a tall task. SVG’s main goal for the World 600 should just be to finish the event. Anything more will be a cherry on top for a driver with little experience on intermediate racetracks.
Chicago Street Race, July 7: Finish Prediction – 5th-10th
SVG will be fast in Chicago, but everyone else in the field now has experience at the course, and in the rain, if Mother Nature presents another monsoon to the masses. He’ll still be a contender for the race win, but I’m not sure I would put money on him to pull into victory circle.
Watkins Glen, September 15: Finish Prediction: 10th-15th.
The Project 91 car was solid at WGI in 2022 when Kimi Raikkonnen’s good run was ruined by a late-race incident. SVG will have already run two road courses in the Next-Gen car in 2024, and with notes from the previous day’s Xfinity Series race on hand, I see SVG having another solid run in his road course finale.
Talladega, October 6: Finish Prediction: 20th-25th
Talladega is simply too much of a wildcard for me to predict these races, but with notes from the spring and a little more trust in the draft from his competitors, I think he can have a top-15 run. However, The Big One will likely claim him in one of these races, so I’ll put him finishing around 20th in the fall.
Las Vegas, October 20th: Finish Prediction – 20th-25th
In his final Cup Series race of the season, I think SVG finishes on the lead lap in a respectable 20th position. More notes, experience, and a more confident driver will lead to their best run on an intermediate track in 2024.
Now for the Xfinity Series, where van Gisbergen will run his first full-time campaign in NASCAR. It’s a little hard to predict his season, but I’ll do my best. We won’t break it down race by race with this one, rather writing a comprehensive report on my prediction for his year.
Points finish: 12th
Top Fives: 6-8
Top 10s: 13-15
Avg Finish: 16
Wins: ????
I’ll start by explaining the question marks in the win column. I truly don’t know how many wins he’ll get this season. He could win three or four road course races and be a championship contender or he could go winless and miss the Playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised either way, simply because SVG is a huge unknown. I have him as my “last one in” driver to make the postseason, but I said the same thing in my playoff prediction article as I am now; we don’t know how many wins he could get, but he has the talent to win as many as he wants to.
I feel like the top five, top 10, and average finish numbers are self-explanatory when you look at my predicted points standing. With only one road course in the Playoffs for the Xfinity Series, I think he’s a first-round exit, and I predict that the final seven-race stretch as a whole will be a struggle. Road courses will obviously be a strong suit, and once you throw in a couple of top 10s each at intermediates, short tracks, and superspeedways, you can chalk up double-digit top 10s. I think most of his top fives come on road courses as well, and if he wins a race, that’s where it will be. The average finish may be a bit low for my predicted number of top 10s, but I could see van Gisbergen ending up in a couple of wrecks that he didn’t start by running mid-pack.
Overall, I think SVG will put together a very respectable season. For him to be seriously considered for a full-time Cup Series ride in 2025, he’ll have to have a few solid runs, and I think he’ll do much more than that. He may be NASCAR’s biggest unknown, but his talent is the most obvious thing in NASCAR in quite a while.
