This weekend Richmond International Raceway will play host once again to the “Last Race Before the Chase.” Since the introduction of “The Chase for the Sprint Cup” in 2004, Richmond’s September night race has served as the “regular season’s” finale.
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[/media-credit]It generally proves to be one heck of a show as the drivers vie for one of the top-10 coveted Chase spots and/or two of the “Wild Card” positions that will ultimately make up the top-12 who will go on to compete in the season’s 10 race showdown that ultimately determines who the 2011 Sprint Cup champ will be.
Heading into Richmond, nine drivers have already secured their place in the Chase. Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman and Brad Keselowski, who currently hold ones of the two Wild Card positions. While technically, any driver currently sitting 23rd or better has a chance at one of the remaining three Chase spots, all eyes are focused on a handful of drivers who are expected to get the job done.
As the points stand now heading into the weekend, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin are the favorites to secure those last coveted positions, but fans know that in NASCAR anything can and will happen, nothing is guaranteed. In order to process it all one must turn to higher math and perhaps a perfect alignment of all the planets to get it a full understanding of just how things could turn out.
With three victories under his belt, Keselowski has clinched himself a safe haven in one of the two Wild Card positions, but depending on his finish in Richmond is still eligible for a Top-10 spot, potentially knocking Earnhardt Jr. and Stewart out of one of the ninth and 10th spots in which they currently sit.
In order to clinch his spot in the Chase, regardless of how any other driver finishes, Earnhardt Jr., who has failed to make the Chase since 2008, must secure a 20th place finish or better, 21st or better and leads at least one lap or 22nd or better and leads the most laps. Regardless of any other driver’s finish, Stewart will clinch his spot by finishing 18th or better, 19th or betting leading one lap and 20th or better leading the most laps.
Got that? Good! It gets a little trickier from here.
Hamlin can seize his Wild Card spot by winning the race on Saturday night. Paul Menard could potentially take that Wild Card should he win the race. Other hopefuls include Marcos Ambrose and David Ragan, who are also eligible for the Wild Card, but each of them would need to take their car to victory AND advance their point standings into the Top-20.
The best of the rest would require a win, a position in the Top-20 and a variety of scenarios and various finishes from the other drivers in order to earn their place in the Chase.
The Chase can be a tough nut to crack, but just as the race, aptly named the “Wonderful Pistachios 400,” will prove in the end; once the tough outer shell has been cracked, the delicious goodness inside makes the fight for the checkered flag that much more worthwhile.
So who’s it going to be? After a two year hiatus, will Earnhardt Jr.’s performance prove worthy of a Chase spot, will Stewart channel that old school intensity that we know and love to hang on to 10th place and will Hamlin, Richmond’s favorite son, kick it into high gear to bring home a win at his hometown track for the third year in a row?
Only time will tell, so have at it boys, Saturday night’s alright for fighting, so get a little action in and give the fans a night to remember!
