Off to Michigan this week for the second and final stop in The Great Lakes State this season and Michigan International Speedway is the 2.5-mile D-shaped superspeedway with 18 degrees of banking in the corners, 12 on the frontstretch, and 5 on the long backstretch. We see speeds top 210 MPH at MIS, making it the fastest track on the schedule.
Qualifying is fairly important this week, but not nearly as important as last week as 16 of the 88 races at Michigan have been won from the pole – unlike 9 of 30 last week at Watkins Glen. 66 of the 88 have been won from inside the top 10 however, but Mark Martin won from the furthest back – 32nd – in the spring race of 2009.
As far as the manufacturers go, Ford has the edge by winning 33 of the 88 races all-time but only three of the last 10 races with the next best being Chevrolet with 20 wins. Ford driver Greg Biffle will go for his 3rd straight victory at MIS this week, also for Roush Fenway Racing who happens to have the most wins of any team at Michigan, with 13 wins all-time.
In news outside of Tony Stewart, it was announced on Tuesday, Juan Montoya would not return to Earnhardt Ganassi Racing in 2014. Juan came to EGR in 2007, his first ride in a stock car – he made The Chase in 2009, but has not finished better than 17th in the points since then for car owner Chip Ganassi.
My thought is the departure could open the seat for it’s 21-year-old development driver Kyle Larson, who currently competes in the Nationwide Series for Turner Scott Motorsports. Chip Ganassi was actually at Larson’s car, giving him a pep-talk for the majority of the pre-race at Watkins Glen this past weekend before the Nationwide race, so to me he’s probably at the top of the list to replace Juan next season.
We’ve seen these mid-season announcements before – this season even with Kevin Harvick going to Stewart-Haas – we’ve seen what he’s done sitting 4th in points for RCR and even Ryan Newman losing his ride at SHR and winning the Brickyard. Bottom line is these guys are competitors and they want to win today, next week, next month, and next year. There are no discounted parts put on these cars to guys who are leaving at the end of the season, and these guys without rides next season want a win now more than ever.
Watkins Glen Recap
It was a fantastic weekend last week for me at my hometown track, and I was 50/50 on my picks last week at Watkins Glen.
It was extremely difficult to go to The Glen and not look at Marcos Ambrose to win. He had won back-to-back races at Watkins Glen and was the overwhelming favorite going into last week’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen for a number of reasons, mainly because he had won those two previous races and because he put his No.9 Ford on the pole, the most proficient starting spot for race-winners over the years at Watkins Glen.
Well, if the race last week was 51 laps instead of 92, Marcos Ambrose would have been a fantastic pick last week as he completely dominated the early stages of the race last week at Watkins Glen. An unfortunate caution for Ambrose came out in the middle of pit sequences for the majority of the field, and Ambrose was shuffled back in the pack after leading the majority of the early stages of the race.
Being shuffled back at Watkins Glen is never a good thing, due to the limited passing opportunities, and Ambrose learned the hard way after being tangled up in an accident between Turn 2 and 3 on lap 84. The wreck would end Ambrose’s march towards the front last week and would land him a disappointing 31st place finish.
As far as my Dark Horse goes, Martin Truex Jr’s. race at Watkins Glen was much less eventful, running in the top 5 all day, and being in the front of the field for the majority of the day paid its dividends as Truex would score a 3rd place finish behind Kyle Busch and Brad Kesolowski. I’m not sure I’ll be allowed to call Truex a Dark Horse next season with his win at Sonoma in June and his 3rd place finish at The Glen last week, bringing his season road-course average finish to runner-up finish.
Michigan Picks
Winner Pick
Up until this year, Matt Kenseth added to the dominance of Roush-Fenway Racing at Michigan International Speedway, winning twice for Jack Roush in 2002 and 2006. On top of the wins, he’s got 12 Top 5’s and 18 top 10’s at MIS in 28 races, making him the 2nd best driver overall at Michigan all-time.
Kenseth is in the top 5 in ALL BUT ONE….of the pre-race loop stats, he’s second in Average Running Position and Driver Rating, he’s third in Average Green Flag Speed, Laps in the top 15, and quality passes, and the one loop stat he’s not in the top 5……Fastest Laps Run – he’s got 159 and that’s good enough for 6th on the list. He’s qualified 12th which doesn’t scare me because of the great passing stats he has over the years at Michigan.
He was 7th at California in March, 6th at Michigan earlier this year in June, and with the way he’s running this season, it’s been 5 weeks since he’s won and without a win this week, he’ll tie his longest stretch this season without a win….so I’m going with Matt Kenseth as my top pick this week.
Dark Horse Pick
On Thursday while previewing this week’s race at Michigan with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, I picked Joey Logano as my longshot play of the week. Qualifying has really helped my cause with Logano because yesterday in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series qualifying, Logano shattered the track record at Michigan International Speedway and captured the Coors Light Pole, another week for me picking the pole-sitter before any cars hit the track.
Logano won the Nationwide race at Michigan last season, but MIS hasn’t been too kind to him in the cup series. Besides his 9th earlier this season, he’s finished 31st, 35th, and 21st in his previous 4 starts at Michigan. He did lead 21 laps in that race in June race, the only laps he’s ever led at Michigan, and with his teammate Brad Keselowski coming alive down the stretch here this season, I think this team is only going to get better. Considering 16 of the 88 races at Michigan have been won from the pole position, I like my chances this week with Logano, he’ll stay my longshot play of the week.
That’s all for this week, so until we head for the Hills of Tennessee…..You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!
your prediction was correct…