It has been a wild ride these last 35 races, but all good things must come to an end.
This week, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series makes its final trek of the season down to South Florida to run the Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. It’s the 36th and final race of the 2015 season.
Homestead-Miami Speedway is a 1.5 mile (2.4 km) intermediate speedway located in Homestead, Florida. Born out of the destruction of Hurricane Andrew, it’s played host to the NASCAR XFINITY Series season finale since 1995. The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series first came to Homestead in 1999. The inaugural race was won by Anthony Wayne “Tony” Stewart. It was his third win of his record-setting rookie season.
In 2002, the season finale race was moved from Atlanta Motor Speedway to Homestead-Miami Speedway for both the Camping World Truck Series and Sprint Cup Series.
Some of you might not be old enough to remember, but there was a time when Homestead wasn’t putting on great races. When it was first built, it basically was Indianapolis and the racing mirrored it. In 1997, the track was reconfigured into the oval it looks like today. However, the turns were almost flat.
In 2003, the track was repaved and the banking was changed from flat to progressive. What I remember most from that race was Bill Elliott leading the race coming out of Turn 2 on the final lap when he had a tire go down. Bobby Labonte drove by him on the backstretch and took the checkered flag. Little did I know that it would also be his final win.
In 2004, Kurt Busch clinched the NASCAR title by a mere eight points over Jimmie Johnson in a race that, ironically, a tire coming off his car saved his championship hopes.
In 2010, Denny Hamlin came into Homestead with a 15 point lead over Johnson. Just about everything that could go wrong for him that weekend did go wrong for him that weekend. He had a lousy qualifying effort, was sent sliding through the grass on the backstretch and couldn’t recover to anything better than a 14th-place finish. A runner-up finish by Johnson clinched his fifth consecutive Sprint Cup Series championship.
In 2011, we were given the closest points finish in NASCAR history when Tony Stewart tied in points with Carl Edwards. The tiebreaker went to Stewart on his five wins to Edwards’s one.
Had he finished second that day, it would have been Edwards celebrating with the title trophy. It’s also worth noting that Stewart had to work his way up through the field more than once that day.
It really goes to show just how important is winning in NASCAR.
The championship battle was just as dramatic in 2012. Johnson had the race in his hands until he was black-flagged for a missing lug nut. It went from bad to worse when he destroyed the suspension of his car coming back onto pit road.
Brad Keselowski survived to score the first title for himself and the captain Roger Penske.
Jeff Gordon took over the race lead with 15 laps remaining and held off Clint Bowyer to score his 87th career victory and first at Homestead.
Last year, Gordon started on the pole and flat out dominated the race by leading 161 of the 267 laps. Near the end of the race, he and Alan Gustafson – since they were out of the title picture – opted to play it conservative and he came home in 10th.
Joey Logano possibly had the race won until a bad pit stop relegated him to a 16th-place finish.
Denny Hamlin was toward the front most of the race. Unfortunately, he had nothing and finished seventh.
Ryan Newman came within half a second of the win and the title last year, but had to settle for bridesmaid.
In the end, it was Kevin Harvick who played his cards right, stood atop the podium and won the title for the first time in his career.
Now let’s look at the championship four.
First at 3/2 to win the title and 7/2 to win the race (Vegas Insider) is Kevin Michael Harvick.
In 14 starts, he’s amassed one win, six top fives (42.86 percent), 12 top-10’s (85.71 percent), 190 laps led, an average finish of 7.6, one DNF and is the defending race winner.
Coming into this race, Harvick has three wins, 22 top fives (62.86 percent), 27 top-10s (77.14 percent), 2248 laps led, 8.9 average finish, 8.7 average finish in the intermediate races and has tied a NASCAR record with 12 runner-up finishes in one season (Bobby Allison had 12 in 1972). However, his 12.2 average finish in the nine Chase races this season is the worst of the four championship drivers.
With that said, I would be shocked if the driver of the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet isn’t up front on Sunday.
Next at 11/4 to win the title and 6/1 to win the race is Kyle Thomas Busch.
His stats at Homestead are less than stellar. In 10 starts, he’s accumulated zero wins, one top-five (10 percent), three top-10s (30 percent), 237 laps led, a 23.1 average finish and two DNF’s.
This season, he missed the first 11 races after breaking his legs in the XFINITY Series race at Daytona in February. After making his return in the Coca-Cola 600, he’s compiled four wins, 11 top fives (45.83 percent – the percentage is his top-fives divided by to the number of races Busch has started), 15 top-10s (62.5 percent), 694 laps led, an 11.2 average finish and an 8.3 average finish in the intermediate races.
Now Busch winning the title Sunday would probably not sit well with a large portion of NASCAR nation given he missed the first 11 races because of his injury. Personally, I don’t have a problem with it because he satisfied NASCAR’s requirements to make it in the Chase.
I would expect to see the driver of the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota to be up near the front Sunday.
Now coming down the red carpet at 3/1 to win the title and 10/1 to win the race is Martin Lee Truex Jr.
In 10 career starts, he garnered zero wins, three top-fives (30 percent), 7 top-10s (70 percent), 108 laps led, an average finish of 10th and one DNF.
This season, Truex has one win, eight top fives (22.86 percent), 22 top-10s (62.86 percent), 564 laps led, an average finish of 12.2 and an 8.7 average finish in the intermediate races.
If Truex wins the title, he and Furniture Row Racing would be the first single-car team to do so since Dale Earnhardt and Richard Childress Racing in 1994.
What really makes his title story compelling is that Furniture Row Racing is this single-car team well outside the NASCAR universe in Denver, Colorado. Barney Visser’s operation has scratched and clawed for the last 10 years in order to finally become one of the top teams in the Sprint Cup Series.
I guarantee you that no one, not even Visser, foresaw the success they’d have this season. Coming off the 2013 season that saw Kurt Busch take the team to the Chase, they had a dramatic falloff in performance. It was compounded by issues in Truex’s personal life when his longtime business partner/girlfriend Sherry Pollex was diagnosed with ovarian cancer.
But in a four-race stretch in May and June, Truex dominated the field by leading a combined 454 of the combined 1267 laps at Kansas, Charlotte, Dover and Pocono. It was at the Tricky Triangle where he ended a  two-year winless drought and scored his third career win.
Since that win, his performance was either hit or miss. His longest stretch of top-10 finishes was three. In spite of this, expect to see the driver of the No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Chevrolet to battle for the win.
Finally, we have the legend making his 797th and final career start on Sunday. At 7/2 to win the title and 10/1 to win the race, it will be arguably the greatest walk-off performance in sports history should the race be won by Jeffrey Michael Gordon.
In 16 starts at Homestead, he’s garnered one win, seven top fives (43.75 percent), 12 top-10s (75 percent), 244 laps led, a 10.6 average finish, one DNF and he dominated this race a year ago on his way to a 10th-place finish.
Despite what some of you think, it’s really not been a horrid season for Gordon. In 35 races, he has a win, five top fives (14.29 percent), 20 top-10s (57.14 percent), 256 laps led, an average finish of 13.9 and a 13.3 average finish in the intermediate races.
Why his title story would be awesome needs no explaining. But I’ll explain anyway.
When Gordon came into the sport in 1992, NASCAR, despite racing in other parts of the United States for its entire history, was still largely seen as a Southern sport. This kid from California with the mullet transcended the boundaries of the NASCAR world and brought this sport to the national level from his appearances on shows like Live with Regis & Kelly and hosting Saturday Night Live.
It wasn’t just his charisma and ability to work the media that made him a legend, it’s also his on-track accomplishments. In 796 starts, he has won 93 times, earned 81 poles, finished in the top-five 325 times (a batting average of .408), has 474 top-10 finishes (54.55 percent), has led nearly 25-thousand laps (24,920), has a 12.5 career average finish, captured four titles and nearly 300-thousand miles driven in the sport.
Gordon is the reason I came into the sport many years ago. I only wish that I could have seen him win a race in person. The closest I came to accomplishing the former was this picture I took of the start of the 57th running of the Daytona 500.
Regardless of the outcome of Sunday’s race, Gordon will no doubt go down as arguably the greatest driver in the history of NASCAR and one of the greatest in the history of auto racing. I truly believe his name is up there with the likes of Michael Schumacher, Graham Hill, Jim Clark, Ayrton Senna, Mario Andretti, A. J. Foyt, Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt and many, many more.
Short of team orders, I’d drive to Las Vegas and bet that Hendrick Motorsports is pulling all their resources to make sure Big Daddy rides into the Florida sunset with his long, overdue fifth championship.
So will Happy repeat as champion? Will Rowdy finally break through and win his first title? Will Truex break out of journeyman status and win the title for Denver? Will the legend himself go out on top with the greatest walk-off performance ever seen?
Find out this Sunday at 1:30 p.m. on NBC. You can also catch the radio broadcast at 2:00 on the Motor Racing Network. Joe Moore, Jeff Striegle and Rusty Wallace will be in the booth. Dave Moody will work Turns 1 and 2. Mike Bagley will work Turns 3 and 4. Alex Hayden, Winston Kelley and Steve Post will work pit road.
