Today, I’ll be taking a look at Tony Stewart, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch and Joey Logano, seeds 12-9 on the Sprint Cup Chase Grid.
- Tony Stewart
No driver in the Sprint Cup Series has had a harder time the last few years than Tony Stewart.
Stewart broke his leg in 2013 and had to miss half the year, then in 2014 probably had the most horrible moment in his entire life during the Kevin Ward Jr. incident. The following year, 2015, was far and away the worst full-time season of his entire career, and in January of this year he broke his back and had to sit out the first eight races of his final Sprint Cup Series season.
Many doubted Stewart would ever win a race again. The thrilling victory at Dover in 2013 against Juan Pablo Montoya seemed like it was going to be the last hurrah of his Hall of Fame-worthy career.
Then Stewart got around Denny Hamlin on the last lap of Sonoma and recorded at least one more triumph.
“Smoke” enters the Chase with a clear mind and nothing to lose, his final season ultimately being a success as long as he finishes it. The last time Stewart made the Chase with nothing to lose was 2011 when he said outright “We don’t deserve to be in the Chase.” Exactly three months after saying that, it was the Monday after winning his third Sprint Cup championship.
Pros
Mike Bugarewicz (AKA “Buga”) has done very well in his first season as a crew chief. Most notably, a good pit call at Sonoma led Stewart to be in position to win the race that got this team into the Chase. Stewart was also good over the summer, with all five of his top fives of the season coming in June, July, and August. And as always, Stewart knows success; he has won at every track in the Chase at least once, and it’s always possible for Tony to get hot and go on a win streak as he did in 2011 and in the summer of 2005 that both led him to championships.
Cons
Stewart is coming into the Chase with two straight DNFs, and although he is having a much better year than last year, he still enters the Chase with just a 17.2 average finish. That’s worse than everybody but Chris Buescher, and that’s especially bad for a driver who missed the first eight races of the season. Stewart also still has a noted temper, as anybody who watched Richmond can see. As much as there is a chance for Stewart to get hot and win a bunch of races, there’s just as much a chance Stewart could blow up on another driver and knock himself out of the Chase.
Overall
Honestly, my head says Tony Stewart is going to be eliminated in round one. My heart says Stewart may get a surprise win or two on his way to competing for a final championship at Homestead as Jeff Gordon did last year. Whatever he does, it’s probably going to be worth watching.
- Kyle Larson
Before Dover this season, it was fair to call Kyle Larson a bit of a let-down.
After entering the Sprint Cup Series to much fanfare in 2014, he had shown flashes of greatness but similar to a younger Kyle Busch hadn’t learned to funnel his raw talent into consistent success. Some felt he should have stayed in the XFINITY Series for another year and was broken like Casey Atwood was. Others felt he needed to get away from Chip Ganassi Racing and join a better team if he were ever to make something of himself.
Most of these concerns faded away after an amazing summer for the California driver, capped off with his very first Sprint Cup Series win at Michigan last month.
In the fifteen races since the start of Dover, where he finished second in an amazing race between himself, Chase Elliott, and winner Matt Kenseth, Larson has amassed a great record. Eight top 10s, six top fives, and five top threes. The narrative for the No. 42 team over the summer has gone from if Larson can compete to just how much can he accomplish?
Pros
Sorry Denny Hamlin, but Larson enters the Chase with the most momentum. He’s riding a streak of three straight top-three finishes, including the win at Michigan, and has shown no signs of stopping. The Chase also contains some of his best tracks, especially Dover where he has never finished worse than 11th. Most crucially, possibly his best track on the entire schedule outside of Michigan is Homestead, where a late race debris caution last year dashed his hopes of winning in what would have been in his first Sprint Cup race.
Cons
Like Chase Elliott, he doesn’t have any Chase experience yet. Nobody knows if he is going to crack from the pressure that naturally comes from competing in it. Chip Ganassi Racing, while they are entering the Chase arguably a better team than Hendrick, also just isn’t an established playoff contender just yet and may have some growing pains.
Overall
I had picked Larson to be the champion before the season started and I’m sticking with my pick. He’s got a lot of momentum heading in, some of his best tracks are in the Chase, and he has the ability. I just feel either he wins the championship or he flames out and get eliminated in round one or two. There’s no middle ground for Larson.
- Kurt Busch
The last couple of years, Kurt Busch has been uncharacteristically quiet. Between Tony Stewart’s problems, Kevin Harvick’s dominance, and Danica Patrick being Danica Patrick, Busch has lost the spotlight to his teammates. And he’s flourishing because of it.
Last year was arguably Busch’s best all-around season, tying his mark for most top 10s in a season with 21 and he had an average finish of 11.1, a career best. This season, Busch has dropped to an average finish of 12.1, but that’s still better than any of his seasons before 2015. He’s also on pace to get even more top 10s this year than last year.
Many thought the addition of Busch on a team that already consisted of three drivers with attitudes would be akin to throwing water on a grease fire, but so far it has been a success. Outside of the nonsense with his former girlfriend earlier last year, Busch has been on his best behavior and other than a wonky first season it has all been worth it.
Pros
Busch has consistency upon consistency. In the first 16 races of the season, he had 14 top 10s, spent the majority of the season in the top three in points and completed every lap of every race before Bristol, a new record. As a former champion, Busch has shown before that he can handle the pressure that naturally comes with the Chase and has shown a decent amount of speed just about everywhere this year. Finally, there is the brother connection. I’m sure Kurt was happy about Kyle Busch winning the championship last year, but there has to be a little extra motivation to win another championship and excel over his younger brother.
Cons
Crew chief Tony Gibson has always built his teams to be very consistent, but not big winners. In the 395 races Gibson has been on the pit box, he has only visited victory lane five times. While a lot of that has been due to driver quality, 69 of those starts were with Danica Patrick in the car, and consistency is a good problem to have, it’s always a disadvantage to have a team built for the grind and not to win in the Chase. Between hustling to make sure the No. 4 is running at 100 percent and Stewart trying to go out with a championship, Busch may get lost in the shuffle of his own team.
Overall
If I were a betting man, I’d put Busch down to go out in round three like last year. This is a great team, and it’s quite possible they could rise up and win a championship regardless. But right now, they are just flat out outclassed by the Toyotas, Harvick, and Team Penske.
- Joey Logano
After being let go from Joe Gibbs Racing in 2012, many thought Joey Logano just wasn’t going to work out.
Gibbs wanted him to go back down to the then-Nationwide Series, feeling the 22-year-old needed more seasoning. Logano turned them down flat and was coasting for a while before Brad Keselowski, fresh off a Cup championship, lobbied for Logano to take over the somewhat troubled No. 22 Ford and become his teammate at Team Penske.
The rest is history.
Logano has broken out and won 13 races in the past four seasons, the fifth-most in that time period. He scored more points than anybody in 2014 and if it wasn’t for a terrible pit stop at Homestead, would have competed for a championship. Last season he had the best all-around season of anybody not named Kevin Harvick, with 28 top 10s, 22 top fives, series highs in wins and poles (six of each), and won the Daytona 500.
Logano has gone from a wash-out to a legitimate championship contender, a dangerous racer who has a chance to win every week.
Pros
One of the most remarkable statistics in Logano’s four-year run has been his versatility. Short tracks, intermediate tracks, 1.5-mile tracks, restrictor plate tracks, even road course tracks, have had races won by Logano the past few years. As one of only three Fords in the Chase grid, Logano will be getting a lot more manufacturer support than the Chevrolets or even the Toyotas.
Cons
Logano hasn’t been awful, he finished the regular season third in points, but he has lost a little speed this year. Unless he gets nothing but top 10s here on out, he is going to have fewer top 10s than last season. He has also led only 386 laps this season, down from 2015 and 2014, and he heads into the Chase with just one win.
Overall
Honestly, from here on out just about every driver has a legitimate shot at the championship. Logano has seemed a bit off this season, though, and he is going to need to improve a little bit if he’s going to be in competition for the championship at Homestead. There’s usually one or two surprising drivers eliminated in round two, notably Jimmie Johnson the last two years, but this year it wouldn’t be shocking if Logano turns out to be one of those drivers.
