As the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season slowly approaches, it’s time for me and every other NASCAR fan with any type of platform to make our Playoff predictions for the 2024 season, going from drivers who seem to be locks to those who will squeak in. Let’s get started, shall we?
Virtual Locks (These Guys Are Shoe Ins)
Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, Team Penske
Yes, I’m legally obligated to place the defending Cup Series champion in this category, but I do think the newly engaged driver will pretty easily make the Playoffs. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t win multiple races in the regular season. We’ll see Blaney make a solid case for title defense in 2024.
Kyle Larson, No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro, Hendrick Motorsports
Perhaps the most obvious choice, Larson has been dynamite ever since joining HMS in 2021. Larson has 17 wins in his 3 years with the team, and he’s my pick to lead the league in wins next year. Yung Money won’t just make the Playoffs, he’ll be the #1 seed after Darlington.
William Byron, No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro, Hendrick Motorsports
Following a breakout year in which he won 6 times, Byron is looking to finish the job with his first Cup Series championship in 2024. All the pieces are there for Byron, and I think he’ll win at least 3 times in the regular season. He and teammate Kyle Larson will once more pace the field out of the gates.
Christopher Bell, No. 20 Toyota Camry XSE, Joe Gibbs Racing
Bell’s championship hopes were dashed early at Phoenix due to a mechanical failure, but the Norman, Oklahoma native has made 2 consecutive Final 4 appearances. All signs point to him being able to do so again in 2024. Bell wins his way into the playoffs by the halfway mark of the regular season.
Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Toyota Camry XSE, Joe Gibbs Racing
Following shoulder surgery in the offseason, Hamlin’s status for the Busch Light Clash is in question. Hopefully, he won’t have to miss any points races, but even if he does, I have the driver of the #11 in Victory Lane before Atlanta kicks off the postseason. Hamlin will get another chance to chase down that elusive Cup Series title.
Kyle Busch, No. 8 Chevrolet Camaro, Richard Childress Racing
2023 was a campaign filled with inconsistency for the younger Busch brother, whose 3 wins all came in the first 15 races of the season. The 2nd half of the year was plagued with wrecks and slow race cars. Busch will easily make the Playoffs, but how far will he go? That’s impossible to predict.
I Feel Good, But…
Chase Elliott, No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro, Hendrick Motorsports
Elliott’s 2023 season was marred by injury, poor decisions by both driver and crew chief in the heat of the moment (see Charlotte and Watkins Glen), and a lack of race-winning speed down the stretch. While the year was an anomaly and not at all normal, it was slightly jarring to see a driver who had made three consecutive Championship 4s miss the Playoffs entirely, no matter the circumstances. Elliott will get to Victory Lane before Atlanta, but the race-winning speed needs to be much more prevalent for me to consider them championship contenders again.
Martin Truex Jr, No. 19 Toyota Camry XSE, Joe Gibbs Racing
Truex and company fell apart in the Playoffs last season, somehow making it to the Round of 8 and not putting up much of a fight in said round. Truex will win a race or two, but the team’s performance in the Playoffs will determine if Truex wants to retire or not at the end of the year. Regular-season Truex will be fine, but can the #19 crew find the same spark in the Playoffs?
Joey Logano, No. 22 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, Team Penske
2023 was a lackluster title defense from Logano, as he only turned in one victory and was eliminated in the Round of 16. However, 2024 should be a great year if the trends continue – Logano has never missed the Championship 4 in an even-numbered season since the knockout style format was introduced in 2014. I’m not one for superstition, but it seems Logano is reading the stars right in even-numbered years. Logano will win a couple in the regular season, but don’t be surprised if he comes out of Phoenix with his 3rd championship.
Tyler Reddick, No. 45 Toyota Camry XSE, 23XI Racing
In a year plagued with inconsistency, late race mistakes, and the #45 team giving away stage points like candy on Halloween, they unexpectedly turned up the wick in the Playoffs, even winning at Kansas. Reddick has lofty expectations on his shoulders entering 2024, and a Championship 4 appearance doesn’t at all seem out of the question. Reddick will win in the 2024 regular season, but the team needs to capitalize on all available opportunities for points to make a deep run.
Chris Buescher, No. 17 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, RFK Racing
Hailing from a town of just 30,000(if you know, you know), Chris Buescher had his breakout year in 2023, winning 3 races and advancing to the Round of 8 in the Playoffs. RFK has the potential to take the next step in 2024, and many consider Buescher to be a dark horse to make a run at the championship if he gathers enough Playoff points.
Brad Keselowski, No. 6 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, RFK Racing
While he went winless, Keselowski looked the best he had since 2020 when he made the Championship 4. While he got bounced in the Round of 12, the speed in the #6 car was a very uplifting sight. The next item on Keselowski’s agenda? Breaking a nearly 3-year long winless streak dating back to the spring Talladega race in 2021.
By The Skin Of Their Teeth…
Bubba Wallace, No. 23 Toyota Camry XSE, 23XI Racing
I think Bubba will be the best of the “Skin of Their Teeth” group, and he may even win a race to lock himself in. However, he (and the whole of 23XI) need to prove that they can start a season as quickly as they can finish it. If they can start fast (or even mitigate the slow start) this could be a special season for Bubba and the #23 group.
Ross Chastain, No. 1 Chevrolet Camaro, Trackhouse Racing
This may be a bit of an overreaction, but was Chastain’s Championship 4 run in 2022 a fluke? Not to take anything away from the very impressive 2-year resume they’ve put together, but 2023 seemed to detract from all the glitz and glamor that 2022 brought. 2023 only reaped 2 wins and an early Playoff exit. Chastain will either point or win his way into the postseason next year, but I don’t think he’s the easy lock as many declare him to be.
Alex Bowman, No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro, Hendrick Motorsports
Bowman recently announced that he will cut back on non-NASCAR sanctioned races (Big Bill France would be proud) in order to focus on his full-time Cup Series obligations. After an incredible start to 2023, a couple of penalties knocked Bowman and new crew chief Blake Harris down a couple of rungs on the proverbial ladder. After Bowman missed time with a back injury sustained in a sprint car accident, he never found his groove again. Slow cars, late race incidents, and uncharacteristic mistakes (see the Southern 500) plagued a horrific 2nd half of the season. While I don’t think he will win next year, Bowman is good enough to still point himself into the postseason. Here’s to hoping he can have his first fully healthy season since 2021 when he won 4 races.
And Finally…
Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Toyota Camry XSE, Joe Gibbs Racing
While not the most popular pick, Gibbs caught fire in the summer during last season, producing several runs that show he’s more than just hype. Gibbs might just narrowly point his way into the 2024 Playoffs, but he’s determined to show he belongs, and I think he beats out several veterans for the final Playoff spot.
Just A Bit Outside…
Michael McDowell, No. 34 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, Front Row Motorsports
This one pains me to type, but McDowell isn’t quite consistent enough at intermediates and short tracks to lead me to believe he can point his way in. With the Indy Road Course and Watkins Glen removed from the regular season schedule, I don’t see enough legitimate winning opportunities for McDowell to place him in my early Playoff bracket. I hope he proves me wrong, but Father Time has to start catching up at some point.
Chase Briscoe, No. 14 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, Stewart Haas Racing
Call me crazy, but I don’t see any SHR cars in the postseason next year. I would place Berry, Preece & Gragson in my next category of “Next Four Out” (in NCAA Tournament terms). That being said, a young talent in Briscoe is their best chance. That win at Phoenix in 2022, nor his Cinderella run to the Round of 8, has escaped my brain. That being said, SHR’s cars aren’t quite good enough, and Briscoe still has a lot to learn. If he could go more than 3 or 4 races without being a lap down in Stage 1, I’ll amend my prediction. Until he consistently runs with the big dogs, I can’t place him in the postseason.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr, No. 47 Chevrolet Camaro, JTG Daugherty Racing
Coming off the best year for JTG since 2014, Stenhouse & Co. looked extremely competitive in the first half of the year before cooling off and being escorted from the Playoffs in the first round. A Daytona 500 win is huge for the team, but without a win, I don’t think the team is fast enough to make up a points gap.
Erik Jones, No. 43 Toyota Camry XSE, Legacy Motor Club
I think That Jones Boy outperforms his teammate, but will still come up short of a Playoff spot. Jones will rebound from a terrible 2023 campaign, but without a victory, I don’t see LMC having fast enough cars to go point for point with the likes of Chastain, Gibbs, and Bowman.
Next Four Out:
Berry, Suarez, Preece, Gragson
25th-28th:
Cindric, Nemechek, Dillon, Lajoie
Per usual, please don’t come back to this article after the Southern 500 to see how badly these takes have aged. They’ll all be incinerated by Memorial Day.
