The NASCAR Cup Series is well into the second half of its regular-season schedule, meaning the drivers are running out of time to secure their spots in the Chase.
There have been big changes to this year’s Chase format. Gone is the win-and-you’re-in approach of recent years, with the top 16 points scorers now progressing regardless of whether they’ve taken a trip to victory lane.
The drivers who make the Chase will also no longer face periodic eliminations. Rather than whittling down the field until there’s a Championship 4, the new Chase format will instead operate like a regular championship. The points are reset, though, with those further up the standings starting the 10-race schedule off with an advantage.
The leading points scorer will start the Chase with 2,100 points, with each subsequent driver getting slightly less until 16th starts with 2,000. There are sportsbook promos on Vegas Insider, the leader in sports betting odds and picks, to use on who’ll end up as NASCAR Cup Champion, along with all the races for the rest of the season.
These changes to the Chase have been made to prioritize consistency. Too many drivers have had their fates decided by simply getting into, or managing to avoid, wrecks. The new format will reward drivers who regularly finish well, and not overly penalize any retirements.
With 16 races complete, these are the leaders heading into the Chase, and those on the bubble who need to do more.
Hamlin reigns in Reddick
Tyler Reddick started 2026 off with an unprecedented three-race winning streak. After taking the victory at the Daytona 500 for 23XI Racing, Reddick brought his No. 45 Toyota to victory lane in Atlanta and the Circuit of the Americas.
This win streak gave Reddick a white-hot start to the year, and he followed it up with wins in Darlington and Kansas to claim his place at the top of the standings. However, things have now cooled off slightly. He hasn’t had a win since April, and lost a huge chunk of his points lead after being caught up in Carson Hocevar’s nine-car wreck at Michigan.
Leading the pack behind Reddick is Denny Hamlin in the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. He’s put together his own three-race win streak–taking victories at Nashville, Michigan, and Pocono–and closed the gap down to just 19 points.
It’s hard to see either Reddick or Hamlin dropping out of the top two, with Ryan Blaney in the No. 12 a distant third and almost 150 points back. Both should instead focus on what they can do to bring their current form into the hunt for the championship.
What’s far from decided is who’ll bag one of the final spots in the Chase, with a number of drivers battling it on the bubble.
Pocono wreck leaves bubble wide open
Shane van Gisbergen in the No.97 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet is the first of the drivers looking precarious, but will likely sure up his Chase spot in the coming weeks. SVG is a road course specialist, and with the street race around San Diego and a visit to Sonoma Raceway coming up, will likely get a good haul of points.
The last two Chase spots after 16 races belong to Erik Jones and Austin Cindric, with 2012 Cup Series Champion Brad Keselowski and three-time champ Joey Logano just on the outside.
This bubble battle is already proving volatile. At Pocono, Keselowski, Logano, van Ginsergen and Bubba Wallace were all caught up in a multi-car wreck that badly affected their Chase hopes. The worst hit was Logano, who limped home in 34th and is now outside by 21 points.
The Chase officially gets underway on 6th September with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. While the challenge for Reddick and Hamlin will be to ensure their early-season momentum lasts until the fall, the drivers on the bubble seem set for more twists and turns as they try to qualify for their shot at the Cup.
