[media-credit id=26 align=”alignright” width=”225″]
[/media-credit]When all is said and done at Homestead, the guy who is the hottest over the final ten events could very likely be our champion. How to become that man is not so simple. Winning is good, but not everything. Matt Kenseth has won twice in the Chase, but pending a zombie apocalypse he does not have much of a chance of taking the crown. Avoiding total disaster has its positive points. Kevin Harvick was five times just outside the Top Ten, yet he is out in the weeds behind even Kenseth.
The curve is mighty steep to keep in the hunt. It would seem having at least as many Top Threes as finishes outside the Top 15 would be required to keep one alive in the Chase, and anything outside the Top 30 cooks your goose. Brad Keselowski has a couple of victories with his worst finish being 11th. Jimmie Johnson remains in the hunt with a trio of Top Threes and Denny Hamlin has a win and a runner-up finish to his credit.
Possibly one of our leading contenders could face disaster over the upcoming four events. Maybe two. However, what are the odds of all three faltering before we end the season?
Here is a look at our hottest 20 drivers over the past ten races.
1 (1) Brad Keselowski – 376 pts
Martinsville not nearly as kind to Brad as it has been to his challengers…
2 (3) Denny Hamlin – 375
…for example, 4 Cup wins and seeking a second in the trucks.
3 (4) Clint Bowyer – 358
The last time he was in Victory Circle, so was Kyle Nelson!
4 (5) Kasey Kahne – 351
Sun might be setting on this season, but there is hope for a new dawn next year.
5 (8) Jeff Gordon – 342
If this is frustrating, imagine how Montoya must feel.
6 (6) Martin Truex Jr – 341
One of a couple of reasons Michael Waltrip might be a happy man.
7 (2) Jimmie Johnson – 337
Brad has been better over the past ten, but the final four will decide a champion.
8 (13) Kyle Busch – 326
He might not be a Chaser, but the man remains a true racer.
9 (10) Kevin Harvick – 322
Has not finished worse than 16th in Chase, but no better than 11th (three times)
10 (11) Greg Biffle – 320
Averaging 32 points per race is good, just not at this time of year.
11 (9) Matt Kenseth – 314
Winning is great, but lack of other Top Tens has killed his chances.
12 (7) Tony Stewart – 288
Winning final four might still be too little too late.
13 (16) Paul Menard – 285
Not yet a contender, but third in Kansas makes him no pretender.
14 (18) Joey Logano – 270
If his Cup stats could look like his Nationwide results, he might be on to something.
15 (12) Dale Earnhardt Jr – 267
Two weeks off and still hotter than most…
16 (14) Carl Edwards – 261
…for example, earned just 16 points at Atlanta and Talladega combined.
17 (17) Marcos Ambrose – 260
Could do well this weekend with a few good brakes.
18 (15) Ryan Newman – 259
Bringing back lead singer Matt Borland to the band.
19 (23) Regan Smith – 240
Filled in for Junior in Cup, driving for Junior in Nationwide next year.
20 (19) Jeff Burton – 239
Fewer than 30 drivers are relevant and he remains one of them.
21 (20) Jamie McMurray – 229
Well, I guess he remains hotter than half the guys out there…barely.
