Just a few weeks ago what had been the original version of this column came to fruition.
There weren’t that many surprises, no bold assessments of which drivers would make up the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup field. But as it goes in the racing world, things can change in an instant. With five races remaining before the Chase begins in Chicago, the picture has dramatically changed. Again.
Five races into the season the first unimaginable happened: Denny Hamlin was sidelined with a broken back and subsequent rehabilitation, taking his chance at the Chase away. Now, another imaginable is upon us: Tony Stewart will be joining Hamlin on the sideline.
Stewart suffered a broken right leg late Monday night when he crashed in a sprint car during a race in Iowa. Coming out of the Pocono race on Sunday afternoon, Stewart sat 11th in points and held one of the Wild Card positions. Now, the door is wide open for anyone from 13th on back.
Martin Truex Jr. and Ryan Newman, currently, are the two who would grab those spots. Except, there’s a long way to go before anything is secure. Will they be among those who get in the Chase or join Hamlin and Stewart in having to wait until next year?
All but Locked In
With little change among them, besides swapping positions every other weekend, the drivers first through eighth are practically sitting pretty. Point leader Jimmie Johnson could lock himself into the Chase as early as this weekend if the scenarios work to his advantage.
Johnson has already been made the favorite for the Chase and a potential sixth championship. He’s led the points majority of the season, has four wins and has proven that he hasn’t lost his touch at dominating races. It’s a matter of whether the mistakes that have cost him a few more wins this season will pop up when the championship is on the line?
Behind Johnson come many drivers with wins this season, playing toward their advantage as the Chase nears. Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch will get to compete for their first championship, as will Kasey Kahne, who scored his second win this past weekend at Pocono, which just about puts him in the Chase.
The man who many blame for the inception of the Chase, 2003 champion Matt Kenseth, would be tied in seeding with Johnson. While Kenseth and his team may have been cooled the last few weeks with bad luck and mediocre finishes, a large portion of the Chase is made up of mile-and-a-half tracks, which Kenseth won all four races on. It could become a showdown of Johnson and Kenseth.
The good news for Clint Bowyer and Dale Earnhardt Jr., their early season consistency has put them in a safe point position. Neither have wins but they’ve been solid enough to build a cushion on those behind them. They’ll be among the fan favorites for the 2013 crown when the Chase begins.
Pressure to Perform
Jeff Gordon was oh so close to putting his name in a Chase spot at Pocono. A debris caution when he was over seven second behind teammate Kahne put Gordon in position to steal a win. He finished second and remains winless this year but moved to ninth in points.
The Chase doesn’t start today, however, and while Gordon’s safe right now the 24 team has been hot and cold throughout the season. Now that the pressure is on, can they remain hot? Gordon nearly missed the Chase last year, squeaking in at Richmond and now he’ll have to fight all the way to the finish again.
Behind Gordon, Greg Biffle is fighting as well. While Biffle, unlike Gordon, has a win in his back pocket, the team has been sliding through the standings. That win might be what gets them in the Chase if he needs to use it for a WC position.
That’s only if those from 13th on back don’t win over the next five weeks. Easier said than done because those drivers are hungrier than ever.
Those on the outside looking up at Biffle with eagerness would be the defending Sprint Cup champion, Brad Keselowski, and 2004 champion Kurt Busch. Both would bring character and heart to the Chase, but they’re going to have to fight for it. After winning five races in 2012 and shocking the NASCAR world by beating Johnson for the title, Keselowski has been very un-champion like this season.
Winless, once at odds with NASCAR and often struggling to find consistent finishes, Keselowski is not in form to defend or even win another title. But, with Stewart now about to slide out of the Chase, that could be the break – no pun intended – Keselowski needs to make sure he doesn’t become the second defending champion in the Chase era to miss the playoffs the following year. Ironically, the last was Stewart in 2006.
So, Who’s In and Who Gets Left Out
The current top eight in points: Johnson, Bowyer, Edwards, Harvick, Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, Kenseth, and Kahne will be apart of the 2013 Chase. As will Biffle and Kurt Busch, who will use the next fives weeks and some of his best tracks to propel himself into top 10 in points. Don’t be surprised if he wins while doing so, too.
As for the Wild Cards, Martin Truex Jr. is doing everything he can to make the Chase and held a WC spot up until last weekend in Pocono. The win from Sonoma is going to be his saving grace, even if someone else outside the top 10 wins a race. Truex and his Michael Waltrip Racing team are consistent enough to stay where they need to in order to take a WC spot.
That leaves one spot left and it’ll go Stewart-Haas Racing’s only hope, Ryan Newman. Only Truex and Newman have a win among the drivers sitting outside the top 10 in points. With Stewart down and out, Newman has to carry the torch and luckily, his No. 39 team found Victory Lane when they needed to and their competition hasn’t.
On the opposite side are those who will have to wait until next year. Gordon and Keselowski will be the big names who miss this year’s Chase, both teams are just too hot and cold. Jamie McMurray and Joey Logano, solid at times but not consistent, would need to win more than once in order to get past Truex, Newman and even Biffle.
Aric Almirola, Paul Menard and Jeff Burton are the long shots. They’re in the top 20, meaning they have a chance, but when you can’t win a race, you can’t make the Chase.
The 2013 Chase Field
Jimmie Johnson
Clint Bowyer
Carl Edwards
Kevin Harvick
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Kyle Busch
Matt Kenseth
Kasey Kahne
Greg Biffle
Kurt Busch
Martin Truex Jr.
Ryan Newman
